Dating the First Case of Covid-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective

chinaxiv.org

It would be interesting if the source of the spread of COVID were from outside China. My bet would be on Vietnam which has large populations of coronavirus hosting bats nearby.

Unfortunately this analysis is hard to take seriously. Just to point out one alternative viewpoint, satellite images indicate an explosion of activity at Wuhan area hospitals in August of 2019 which is well before the December 2019 projection here. So this appears to present and extremely limited and highly selective look at available information.

The paper is over my head, so I can't claim to make any sort of a cohesive analysis about its data or methods. But the situation seems to be two countries using distinct and specific data to point the finger at one another.

I have never heard of chinaxiv! This is news to me that it even exists and I work in this space.

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