I found this article helpful for more context: https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2021/09/18/the-submarine...
It's by Hugh White the former deputy-secretary of the Australian Department of Defence.
It's by Hugh White the former deputy-secretary of the Australian Department of Defence.
Historically, that's turned out pretty well for them, as countries in that position can attract favorable terms from both major powers, who want to court them as allies.
Who knows if the government of Australia is thinking in these terms, but I'd be incredibly interested in what concessions and non-public promises Australia got behind the scenes for this.
And in terms of future international relationships, it does demonstrate to China that Australia isn't willing to make alliances solely on the basis of economic pressure. It will be curious if (in the medium to long term) China holds a grudge, or tries to reattract Australia with incentives.
So this is more than China pushing around another random country. They'd have to cut off their own ear to spite Australia.
The US agreeing that Australia can have nuclear submarines powered by weapons-grade uranium is a huge concession in itself. The US has been insisting that only nuclear weapons states be allowed to possess weapons-grade uranium. They are making an exception to that for Australia. Nuclear submarines powered by weapons-grade uranium do not require refuelling during their operational life; those powered by reactor-grade uranium do.
And, the US has been trying to block South Korea from building a nuclear submarine at all, even one powered by reactor-grade uranium only. Most international suppliers of enriched uranium (even only reactor-grade) sell it on the condition that it is not used for military purposes. In theory, South Korea could try to enrich it themselves (like Brazil and Argentina are doing for their own nuclear submarine programs), but in practice South Korea fears the international controversy that may cause, and the risk it may offend the US. South Korea has been asking the US to supply reactor-grade fuel for naval use, but thus far the US refuses. So even allowing Australia to have nuclear submarines at all, when it blocks other allies from doing so, is also a big concession.