I think the Australian actions here were reasonable, the project was massively over budget and well behind schedule. The regional security situation has shifted a lot in the last 5 years since this project was announced.

The news could have been delivered more nicely but there was always going to be fallout. Ultimately Australia doesn’t owe France a submarine contract, and France wasn’t doing Australia a favour by letting it buy submarines. It was a commercial agreement that Australia no longer wishes to pursue.

For Australia I think the strategic calculus is in a way simple. The US is the only country that can credibly oppose China. If a significant escalation of tensions with China is at all likely, then Australia’s best chance would be to operate closely with and support the US in opposing China.

The submarines come as part of a larger package including larger US forces being based out of Australia and the placement of tomahawk missiles in Australia.

The more interesting questions I think are is open conflict with China likely and does China actually pose a threat to Australian sovereignty?