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Comment by twidlit | Hacker News Reader

There is always hope for Microsoft based on the following points.

1. Its early days for the smartphone market.

2. Nokia+Wp7 has a good chance of not flopping due to Nokia's reach, relationships and repeat customer base in countries outside of USA.

3. They have lots of cash

4. They've done this before (Xbox entered a fairly mature, very competitive market)

5. They have platforms they can leverage/integrate more (Xbox, IE, Windows 8, Facebook)

6. They haven't targeted the low end market yet.

The mass market (people not like us) still views Microsoft and Nokia as good brands so in that aspect Apple and Google phones don't have the same brand equity that keeps them super loyal/rabid to like us geeks.

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Its early days for the smartphone market.

I'm not so sure about this. Customers and developers have significant investments in the existing app markets. Unless the mobile web catches up soon in terms of capabilities I think newcomers are going to have an increasingly hard time challenging the two incumbents.

I don't think so. Developers will go where the money. What's surprising to me is how many quality apps are showing up on WP today. If there was even a slight uptick in sales, I think they could match Android in app velocity.

Today users have no allegiance to Android at all. I know a lot of people with Android phones and no one, not one, is like, "I'm sticking with Android for my next phone too." They're all, "Maybe Android. But probably iPhone or maybe WP". iPhone users though are pretty diehard. In part because its still just the best phone, IMO.

But the lack Android allegiance is giving WP a window, no pun intended. Unless Android has some tricks up its sleeve for Ice Cream Sandwich, I think that WP can make serious inroads. Not 20% market share in a year, but climb back up to 10-12%.

I've noticed the same lack of allegiance to iPhones too (non-fanboys of course). As a WP7 users, I've often been asked about the phone, and heard comments like 'I could just get another iPhone, but I'm curious what the other phones are like'.

I'm not seeing an iPhone devotion among many people that I would have expected.

Its fairly early when you compare the install base of the dumbphones vs. the smartphone. (1.4 billion vs. 450million) but i agree that late 2012 will be where the window for 2nd/3rd places will be locked up until the next big disruption.

I think my experience exemplifies this: I bought a WP7 two days ago. WP7 phones are very cheap now. Sure, there are cheap Android phones too, but those run very old versions of Android that I can't upgrade. That doesn't exactly sound like 'open' to me, I'd immediately buy an outdated phone. And laying out hundreds of euros for a phone is beyond reason in my opinion. Mine cost 150€, the LG E900. I think Windows will grow in marketshare simply because it's the best, high quality option for its price.

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