I don't know of any programs that will break from this specific change, though I will be unsurprising if some exist.
I agree that the http and tls packages have made frequent changes that are technically exceptions to the go1compat promises, where there are changes that are technically breaking, but are "in spirit" with the intent of the package. I agree that it's unavoidable to change them over time in this way.
The reality of this has been that http-related changes semi-frequently break my programs when I update go versions.
To me, the fact that http and tls are living protocols is an argument for them being separate versioned modules (i.e. golang.orx/x/net/http), not that we should be causing breaking changes and hand-waving it as being an improvement.
Other packages, like os, sync, etc, have remained stable, and I have no issue with those being versioned alongside the go distribution.
For packages like http and tls, that have made frequent breaking changes, it does seem like they should have been deprecated and replaced with either golang.org/x/vX/net/http, or some in-stdlib-versioned-thing.
Why not deprecate crypto/tls and move it out of the stdlib such that users can get benefits of updating the compiler without the risk of code breakage?
It also seems like a benefit that users could then consume crypto/tls updates on a faster cadence without needing go point releases.