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Robin has been at this for over 15 years. Some reasons why he failed in the early years were that he used government money for uncomfortable bets about assassinations of US politicians.

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Yeah, that's one of the few markets where I'm with the alarmists. You definitely can move the market by assassinating someone.

I just can't trust a social scientist personally telling me that something offers better predictions, because social science has lost my trust in it's methodology. I'd need to see a data scientist, mathematician or statistician arguing that it does for me to start considering it more.

The good thing though is, he could simply setup a decision market to have people decide the true value of decision markets no?

good news, Robin wasn't always a social scientist, he has a background in physics and statistics

Robin happens to be something of a poster boy for criticizing social science methodology, as it happens.

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