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Your numbers are incorrect. The ~40,000,000 number represents cases confirmed through administered tests. The true number is probably somewhere closer to ~150,000,000[0]. Your comment is based on an incorrect assumption.

[0]: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... (the estimates here do not account for infections before February 2020 or after May 2021, which means all early infections as well as the "delta surge" are unaccounted for).

Pretty sure you numbers are not factoring in children under the age they legally allowed to get the vaccine, because those numbers are way high if you exclude the ineligible

"All Persons" is not a valid statistic

>As such, we know much more about how well vaccinations protect people than we do about how well the immune systems of those who have recovered from COVID will protect from reinfection

We actually do not, given that the effects of the vaccine seems to diminish with time, we currently have no idea how much or for how long. We do not have long term data. This is why there is sooooo much confusion on if you need a booster and when, because the efficacy at 6mo, 1 year, 18mo etc is a big unknown right now

>Pretty sure you numbers are not factoring in children under the age they legally allowed to get the vaccine, because those numbers are way high if you exclude the ineligible

A fair point. There were approximately 45,000,000 children under the age of 12 in the US in 2019[0].

I'd guess that's probably still relatively accurate.

Removing those children from my calculation, there are still almost twice as many people unvaccinated as are estimated to have contracted the virus.

>We actually do not, given that the effects of the vaccine seems to diminish with time, we currently have no idea how much or for how long. We do not have long term data. This is why there is sooooo much confusion on if you need a booster and when, because the efficacy at 6mo, 1 year, 18mo etc is a big unknown right now

Another good point. I'd point out that while ongoing immunity is a big (and unanswered) question, bringing R0[1] down in high infection areas right now can significantly reduce the impact on our health care systems and economy.

What the situation will look like in 12-18 months is important, but given the high transmissibility and case rates in some areas of the US, increasing the ability of folks to avoid serious health consequences right now is, arguably, even more so.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/457786/number-of-childre...

[1] https://www.mastersindatascience.org/resources/r0-infectious...

> Removing those children from my calculation, there are still almost twice as many people unvaccinated as are estimated to have contracted the virus.

Your calculation is wrong. 120 million that are unvaccinated, out of which 40 million are immune from past contraction and another 45 million are ineligible, that leaves 35 million, less than the number of people who are immune from having contracted the virus.

That of course also doesn't take into account other people who cannot take it, and the number of unconfirmed cases of immunity from having contracted the virus. I don't have any estimates for those numbers so I won't speculate on what they are besides saying that the number of unvaccinated Americans that can and need to be vaccinated is probably a lot less than 35 million.

>Your calculation is wrong. 120 million that are unvaccinated, out of which 40 million are immune from past contraction and another 45 million are ineligible, that leaves 35 million, less than the number of people who are immune from having contracted the virus.

Note that I did not mention immunity. I mentioned vaccinated vs. unvaccinated.

Contracted/recovered from the virus != vaccinated.

As to levels of immunity from previous infection, I made no statement whatsoever.

Edit: clarified my initial statement vis a vis vaccination vs. immunity.

Well you're talking about 45 million ineligible children and then not taking that number into account, I see no reason why you've talked about them then.

> Removing those children from my calculation, there are still almost twice as many people unvaccinated as are estimated to have contracted the virus.

This is what I'm responding to. It is incorrect. 120-40-45=35. 35 is far and away from almost twice as much as 40.

>This is what I'm responding to. It is incorrect. 120-40-45=35. 35 is far and away from almost twice as much as 40.

Actually, the calculation is 120 (total unvaccinated)-45 (children under 12)=75.

Whether or not someone has contracted the virus or not is irrelevant to whether or not they have (or can) receive a vaccination.

Whether or not those 40 million cases have some level of immunity is also irrelevant to whether or not they are vaccinated.

From your parent comment above:

> As such, there are more (perhaps much more) than twice as many folks who have not had COVID who are unvaccinated than there are those who have had COVID.

So this statement you made doesn't apply anymore? It is irrelevant now all of a sudden? We aren't taking the 40 million into account anymore? Why? Only one or the other? Then why even bring any of these numbers up if you're just going to disregard them?

> Removing those children from my calculation...

You're not removing them from a calculation, you're removing them from the 120 number and then ignoring the fact that you've also already removed 40 from that number, which was the calculation you're referring to.

Why even have this conversation if you're just going to arbitrarily decide to not consider a factor you've already considered prior? What are you trying to accomplish with this discussion?

>> As such, there are more (perhaps much more) than twice as many folks who have not had COVID who are unvaccinated than there are those who have had COVID.

>So this statement you made doesn't apply anymore? It is irrelevant now all of a sudden? We aren't taking the 40 million into account anymore? Why? Only one or the other? Then why even bring any of these numbers up if you're just going to disregard them?

Who says it doesn't apply? I said: ...there are more (perhaps much more) than twice as many folks who have not had COVID who are unvaccinated than there are those who have had COVID.

The fact that there are ~45 million children who are unvaccinated because those under 12 haven't been approved for the vaccine(s) doesn't invalidate my point at all. In fact, it strengthens it.

The ~75 million folks who could get vaccinated but have not done so is still almost twice the number of recorded cases.

I'm trying really hard to assume good faith, so I'll make the leap and consider that perhaps English isn't your first language.

Those are COVID cases not population level estimates. Try 40 million x (pick a number between 2 and 5).

I won't be bullied into getting an unnecessary procedure just because the burden of proof has not been met (re: spotty studies).

> Your statement seems to be along the lines of "Biden won't give me a pony! He's alienating me!"

That seems uncalled for.

>I won't be bullied into getting an unnecessary procedure just because the burden of proof has not been met (re: spotty studies).

Bullied? Where I live (NYC), they will pay you $100[0] to get vaccinated. I wish more folks would "bully" me that way.

I'd add, that at least in the US, no one is forcing anyone to have an unwanted procedure. Every single "vaccine mandate" has come with the caveat that you can avoid being vaccinated by getting tested regularly.

As to whether or not a COVID vaccination is necessary or not is, for some strange reason, a controversial question.

Have you been vaccinated against Polio? If so, why is that different than COVID? Not being snarky here, just genuinely curious as to how you see those as different.

[0] https://www1.nyc.gov/site/coronavirus/vaccines/vaccine-incen...

Given a 100 bucks if you do, denied admission everywhere and job threatened if you don't.

I did not make the decision to vaccinate against polio, that was made for me. I trust my parents made an educated decision and its beside the point now, I am vaccinated. Does polio vaccine manufacturer have readily available risk/benefit data for people who've already had polio? Covid vaccines don't provide this data so burden of proof is not met. I'd judge polio vaccine the same way under the same circumstances.