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Comment by trompetenaccoun | Hacker News Reader

I have friends and family in the Mainland. I've lived there myself for years. The CCP does not want peace, not sure where you're getting this from. First they'll take Taiwan at the first sign of American weakness (which may have happened already). Then they'll go for the rest of the world. It's not even a one party state anymore, it's been transformed into an outright totalitarian dictatorship under Xi. Absolute power is the ultimate goal of such systems, they won't stop until they're defeated or control it all.

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China is a superpower. The future is bleak for Taiwan.

But India has nukes, Japan can probably produce nukes in short order, Korea is in a state of hyper-militarisation for unrelated reasons and the US, insofar as they are active in the region, have nukes.

It doesn't matter what the CCP wants, they might get away with Taiwan but it is hard to see what the follow up would be where Shanghai still gets to have skyscrapers. Most of China's success in the last 40 years has been economic.

You can't take on the entire world with bombs and tanks, the Nazis tried that and failed. The CCP has a smarter strategy, they only use force where everything else fails. Like in Hong Kong, they were never going to get the HKnese on their side because no one knows the CCP oppression better than the people of HK, they've had front row seats for decades watching it all in HD. Same goes for Taiwan. They almost successfully infiltrated Australia and New Zealand, they already have people in parliament there. But it seems this didn't quite work out and they promptly threatened Australia with war as well. We'll probably see increasing conflict in the region. The united front work department is active globally. Some regions have priority, like parts of Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. But it's a bit naive thinking China will stay neutral when Xi has given any indication possible that he won't. I find it bizarre many still won't take China seriously. They claim half of SEA at this point and pressure foreign businesses like film studios and airlines into only showing their maps. Ethnic Chinese are at risk of getting kidnapped and brought to China where they're tortured, even if they're foreign citizens. Then there are the concentration camps. What else will it take for foreigners to take notice? Does Wang Yi have to personally travel to their country and leave a severed horse head in their bedrooms?

> You can't take on the entire world with bombs and tanks, the Nazis tried that and failed.

They got pretty damn close. I’d say the outcome involved a lot of luck.

"bombs and tanks" means something very very different in 2021 than it did in 1942. You have to remember they barely had V2 rockets in WW2...

What actually causes issues for modern armies is relatively low tech guerilla warfare, as we've seen in nearly every war (that any country has engaged in, not just the US) since Vietnam especially, but the hints were there since the second Boer war.

Forget even nukes for a second, I don't think anyone has the stomach for a regular conventional war between modern nation states. We've seen the pictures of what cities looked like in Europe after WW2. Now add modern bombs and missiles. Imagine Shanghai or LA just completely flattened. It's not worth it.

planes too:

I find the lessons of our reliance on air support in the context of Afghanistan an interesting lesson that our military hopefully learns from.

There is some good reporting that reported the total collapse of their army was partially because without the US they couldn't reach their bases or provide support, let alone maintain their planes & helos.

The US brass were even bragging the the Taliban couldn't use even our guns that were left behind since they take so much special maintenance.

What happens to our 'fancy' planes with electronics/software attacks? Do we even have the capability to drop bombs if something like that happens?

Does Taiwan have nukes?

In theory no, in practice yes. They had an active nuclear weapons program that officially stopped just short of completion in the 1980’s. They also currently have multiple nuclear reactors in the country.

So, they have the capacity to have produced nuclear weapons in the past or to produce them in the near future, but if they have any is somewhat unclear. Still, I would expect Shanghai to probably get nuked at some point if China invaded Taiwan.

No and no. It didn't officially stop just short of completion. The US actively worked to subvert it. Both overtly using the UN and covertly using the CIA.

Taiwans nuclear industry was decimated as a result with a lot of the research facilities getting shut down and a lot of aspiring Nuclear scientists leaving the country or switching industries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_des...

https://web.archive.org/web/20110227231955/http://www.highbe...

The claims GP made about Taiwan practically being able to develop Nukes is supported by that wiki article, though.

> "There is no evidence that Taiwan possesses any nuclear weapons or any programs to produce them, although it does have the advanced technological ability necessary to develop nuclear weapons as well as the high-tech ability to enrich uranium or process plutonium."

No it's not. That's a gross oversimplification of what is necessary to build a nuke. These arguments have been made over and over about other countries. If Taiwan had anything of the sort, China wouldn't be itching for a fight.

It's also doubtful that Japan has any weapons grade plutonium left seeing that they handed over a bunch of it to the US in 2016.

"On 24 March 2014, Japan agreed to turn over more than 700 pounds (320 kg) of weapons grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium to the US,[43] which started to be returned in 2016.[44] It has been pointed out that as long as Japan enjoys the benefits of a "nuclear-ready" status held through surrounding countries, it will see no reason to actually produce nuclear arms, since by remaining below the threshold, although with the capability to cross it at short notice, Japan can expect the support of the US while posing as an equal to China and Russia.[45]

On 29 March 2016, then-U.S. President candidate Donald Trump suggested that Japan should develop its own nuclear weapons, claiming that it was becoming too expensive for the US to continue to protect Japan from countries such as China, North Korea, and Russia that already have their own nuclear weapons.[46] "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_progra...

A gun type nuclear weapon is an extremely simple device, though with relatively low yield. To the point where the US did not feel the need to test it before dropping Little Boy. Weapon delivery systems are a larger issue.

As to Japan having weapons grade plutonium or highly enriched uranium, 5 years is a long time in a weapons program. At it’s peak the US was pumping out hundreds of nuclear weapons a year.

Sigh, is that common? You just throw out a bunch of stuff into the room without knowing what you're talking about?

Even Little Boy had 64kg of highly enriched uranium. You can't just highly enrich uranium and have no one notice it.

But EVEN IF you could. Delivering a nuclear warhead is a world of difference 1945 vs. 2021. Air defense systems are massively better, so you can't just fly to chinese airspace and have them not shoot you down. You can't just build a delivery system silently without testing it that penetrates chinas S-400 without problems.

Yeah you can build something in your backyard and then where are you going to blow it up at? Japan can hardly keep chinese fishing boats out of their own waters.

The destruction of civilian nuclear industry is because the free people are dumbed to the degree that they cannot reason rationally the pros and cons of nuclear electricity; and they decide they don't want nuclear. And you can well see how the voting whores accelerate this process.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan#Anti-n...

TW nuclear breakout window is long gone. The island is now thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence. There is no opportunity post 90s to secretly start up a nuclear program without getting glassed by PRC first, and with full endorsement from every nuclear power who doesn't want to see nukes proliferate to mid-tier nations.

That’s a very optimistic take on PRC intelligence operations. Historically countries simply aren’t nearly as good at gathering intelligence as you might think.

Further we don’t know what intelligence the PRC has gathered. If China believes Taiwan has nuclear weapons or the capacity to assemble them quickly, there is going to be very little change in rhetoric from China.

There's no reason to talk in generalities. PRC's thorough infiltration of TW military/industry and fact that ROC military brass are prodominantly KMT with pro-PRC sympathies has been intelligence consensus for decades. This isn't speculation, it's more or less accepted fact that guides US selling TW 2nd/3rd tier weapon platforms because they know anything that filters to TW military will finds it's way to PRC. Like everyone knows Israel intelligence has been very proficient in infiltrating Iran's nuclear program. PRC infiltration of TW is more comprehensive on whole of society level. No reason to pretend otherwise.

To your edit: any credible nuclear break out threat from TW would be taken out within 10minutes from PRC rocketry. Of all PRC redlines, the most serious are TW ones. PRC has fought with nuclear USSR and US over less important core interests while PRC wasn't nuclear. PRC will absolutely preemptively crush any TW nuclear efforts.

I don’t disagree that the PRC is gathering a lot of intelligence, but that’s a long way from saying they gather all relevant information.

As to a preemptive strike that’s extremely unprecedented for China. It would definitely be considered at the highest levels, but would they act is a much larger question especially if they discovered functional nuclear weapons. Taiwan meanwhile benefits of China did such a strike on a non nuclear weapon manufacturing factory so could be giving them false intelligence etc. This stuff just has a lot more uncertainty than you might assume.

> a lot more uncertainty than you might assume

There is also more assumed uncertainty than reality. In terms of degrees of espionage, modern PRC's intelligence gathering on TW is probably the most comprehensive apparatus anywhere. Every few years, minister level intelligence assets get exposed in TW defense. There is blind assumption and there is consensus for those that follow the space. There aren't any credible analysis that suggests TW has hidden nukes or can conduct breakout nuke development without PRC being aware.

> would they act

See edit of all the times PRC acted, with explicit prior warnings on when core redlines are crossed. It's not only precedent but interventions are near certainty. Respectfully, TW trying to bait PRC with false nuclear proliferation is counterproductive, just about the only consensus security council states and current nuclear powers have is they don't want more mid-tier nations getting the bomb. Of all the reasons the PRC could get away with attacking TW with relatively little cost, stopping nuclear proliferation is at the top.

Japan’s policy has always been to keep highly enriched uranium on hand, which they could use to make nukes in relatively short order. It’s a backup plan in case America stops being the guarantor of Japanese safety against China.

Do they have the wherewithal to pull off a deliverable Teller-Ulam thermonuclear warhead, without doing any atmospheric testing? Does Japan even have SLBMs or bombers?

It takes a lot more to be a credible nuclear threat than just having some U235 sitting around...

I can't speak to the delivery aspect, but I don't think you'd even need a Teller Ulam thermonuclear warhead to make a credible threat to a neighboring power. But the delivery aspect matters a lot, obviously.

> Teller Ulam thermonuclear warhead to make a credible threat to a neighboring power.

Granted, I haven't read a ton of analysis on this, but my guess would be that you do if you're going up against someone with their own thermonuclear bombs. If China drops some of their own thermonuclear weapons on Tokyo, what's Japan's response? Dropping a fission weapon? If they got to that level, I'm sure that would be considered an acceptable risk for China. The converse is also true. If Japan dropped the fission weapon first, they'd instantly have a bunch of thermonuclear warheads headed their way.

> If China drops some of their own thermonuclear weapons on Tokyo, what's Japan's response? Dropping a fission weapon?

I don't think it works that way. Fission bombs are perfectly capable of leveling a city. If a city gets leveled, no one's going to shrug it off because it was done with the "wrong" kind of weapon.

IIRC, modern thermonuclear warheads have yields along the lines of a couple hundred kilotons. Even through theoretically they can be made much more powerful, in practice they aren't.

Nuclear weapons are a technology that is almost 100 years old, and is old enough for a country like North Korea to pull off.

It has a space program with rockets, a nuclear power sector, etc. It's the thing you do when you want all the pieces for a potential nuclear weapons program without signaling that you're looking to develop a nuclear weapons program.

I think the current contemporary estimate is that Japan could assemble a functioning nuke in 6-12 months.

Isn't 6 to 12 months that ages in wartime ?

Presumably china's not randomly declaring war? They could start building it once tensions rise.

The presumption is that they’d begin building them once they decide that America won’t guarantee their safety, not once China declares war.

China had a one child policy. It cant declare war. Everyone of those soldiers has two generations of parent pensioners depending on it. China is not trying to emulate the us and thus - disregarding the propaganda, not gearing up for war.

> It cant declare war.

History tells us that countries can and do declare war when it would be illogical for them to do so. There was a running theory before WW1 that the economic interconnection of Europe made war impossible, which was obviously false.

Does this mean China is gearing up for war? No. But to declare that China can’t declare war is fairly ahistorical.

> China is not trying to emulate the us … disregarding the propaganda

Ironically, I’d argue that this is propaganda. “We’re not like that other power, we’re so much better” is pretty classic stuff.

Although I’d argue that China isn’t emulating America, I’d argue that China is emulating 19th century Britain with its debt diplomacy.

Note I didn't ask if Japan could make a fission weapon. I have no doubt they could in relatively short order. I also don't doubt given enough time, they could assemble a fusion weapon, they have the resources and smarts. But 6-12 months I think is probably too long in a crisis situation.

> But 6-12 months I think is probably too long in a crisis situation.

Yes and therefore it stands to reason that they probably already have weapons ready (but maybe in a disassembled state) and simply don't disclose it.

The U.S. funded an exercise back in, iirc, the 60s of getting a few physics grad students to design a fission bomb using only open-source info. (That's far less resources than modern Japan could give it.) They succeeded at coming up with a viable implosion design.

> The future is bleak for Taiwan.

I keep seeing this argument. Let me explain why Taiwan will be free from China's attack for the next 30-50 years (long enough for Xi JinPing to expire)

- US protection. If there's one thing both parties in US agrees on, it's against China. Biden just emphatically committed protection for Taiwan and peace in the south east Asia. There are many US warships sailing up and down Taiwan straits. There are many military deals and cooperations with Taiwan. TSMC is a critical part of the world's electronic supply chain. Taiwan is a critical part of the island chain strategy to contain China, since it acts as an unsinkable carrier against China.

- United democracies. US and its many allies are now coordinating naval exercises in the Region. Japan. Australia. India. UK, France, and Germany now have warships in the region as well. South Korea and Taiwan are now increasing its military defenses. These firepowers are 90% of the world's military right now.

- China's military is only starting up. It doesn't even have capability to produce its own jet engines or carriers. Its strength lies in the large # of soldiers, which have to be transported. And its large # of ships, which are mostly coast guard/civilian level, and can be sank relatively easily. China's military is about 3-4 generations behind US, and currently is no match for the 10X power from US and its allies

- Taiwan as a fortified island. Fortified islands are hard to take, as evident in the modern war histories. There are only a few times in the year that China can safely cross the straits without fearing typhoons or rough sea. And landing only on a few spots. Especially if the island is armed with the latest war technologies from US, and has the missile capability to strike Beijing, or the three gorges dam which will then wipe out millions of Chinese. Taiwan is now producing domestic submarines, long range missiles, and ship missiles. You'll want to remember that Taiwan has very sophisticated electronic capabilities, so the arms it is starting to produce will be very good.

- China only gets one shot at attacking. After which, it will get economically sanctioned into oblivion by the world economies. Because otherwise Japan, South Korea, and other island nations near China can be attacked with similar attempts as well. Since China mainly imports most of its resources, and is export focused, it will sank into a deep economic depression filled with local riots.

One more thing to note is that China doesn't have much oil, natural gas and other resources on its own, and it is very hard to get any to it by any other way than by sea - otherwise it's combination of Siberia, Himalayas, deserts and neighbors that hate China.

China has enormous manufacturing capacity, but rather fragile supply to make use of it should the seas around it become warzones.

I suggest Taiwan forsake the pursuit of independence, but at the same time commit to unification only on the democratic reform in China.

The pursuit of independence is just pursuit of conflict. No one in China, Taiwan, and US, can alter that trajectory.

Even if Taiwan managed to gain independence, most likely Taiwan, China, and US would be severely damaged (assuming all parties are still sane enough to avoid a total nuclear armageddon), democracy would simultaneously deteriet in all 3 regions. As economic downturn inevitably results into worsening social orders (more dictatorship, or more chaos), there has not been a single exception in human history anywhere, period.

Well, I guess EU would be happy to see that happening. It's a gamble, but if plays out correctly, EU would be left as the sole superpower. Not a bad outcome.

The solution for Taiwan is obvious. Nuclearization.

The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite.

> The only way for a country of that size to resist a superpower is to ensure that that superpower loses their capital if they dare bite.

That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes. Would their system be able to survive a first strike? Would it be able to penetrate hundreds of miles of Chinese air defenses or defeat an ABM system? IIRC, ABM systems are far easier to build if you're willing to put nukes on the interceptors.

From my armchair, Taiwan's best bet is to create an Israeli-style reserve army that can mobilize most of the population to fight a short, intense war.

>That's not MAD. Also I'm not sure if it's even plausible that Taiwan could successfully target Beijing even if it had nukes

do they need to target beijing? Targetting guanzhou would already wipe out any gains from capturing taiwan.

> Targetting guanzhou would already wipe out any gains from capturing taiwan.

That doesn't address the lack of MAD nor any vulnerability to a first strike.

It's you who brought up MAD. For a small country like Taiwan it may be enough to make the attack painful enough that it's not worth it to larger power. This essentially was(and is) Switzerland's defence strategy.

> For a small country like Taiwan it may be enough to make the attack painful enough that it's not worth it to larger power. This essentially was(and is) Switzerland's defence strategy.

It's worth noting that China isn't just "a larger power," it has a particular fixation on Taiwan. It may not be deterred as easily as you think. IIRC, Taiwan acquiring nuclear weapons is one of their stated red lines that would trigger a war.

If Taiwan managed to nuke a Chinese city when it's invaded, it would probably just make the Chinese madder.

Doesn’t matter if the CCP has a fixation on Taiwan. It will still have to take public opinion into consideration. People who are at risk of getting nuked aren’t going to take the CCP’s reckless behaviour sitting down. The CCP will have quite a mess on its hands.

P.S. Their military might not even be willing to invade if Taiwan is going to be lobbing nukes left and right, and possibly right into the invading force. Look at how China had to redrawn from their skirmish with India after they lose a few people to weather - and simply because the troops wanted to head home for Chinese New Year.

Taiwan is less than twice the size of Israel, so they would only need to create a few bombs, attach perpetual countdown timers to them and smuggle them into Beijing. If China attacks Taiwan, the bombs don't get reset and go of. If China does the same to Taiwan they have a mutally assured destruction.

> Would it be able to penetrate hundreds of miles of Chinese air defenses or defeat an ABM system?

Cruise missile flying 100m off the ground.

For practical purposes, cruise missiles are the real wunderwaffe which is impossible to stop, not ballistic missiles.

They would need to develop something like the minuteman missiles but on mobile launchers to be able to retaliate with success.

This would be a terrible idea for Taiwan since every country that supports Taiwan is down wind of China. South Korea, Japan and the US do not want nuclear fallout coming over their territory. It makes coming to Taiwan's aid a lot more difficult both logistically and politically.

Wouldn’t that motivate the other countries more to help out so it doesn’t come to Taiwan launching nukes and irradiating the entire region?

May I ask what makes you think that CCP will go for the rest of the world?

I don't know Xi's intentions, but there is a lot of rhetoric from him about restoring China's 'natural place' as the world's leader as viewed through hundreds of years ago.

> The CCP does not want peace, not sure where you're getting this from.

CCP certainly looks like wanting peace, judging against US, which CCP has always been open about to surpass or at least excel...

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