Will Xi move on Taiwan? History warns he might: Niall Ferguson

asia.nikkei.com

3 points·malloryerik··3 comments

The US wouldn't engage Chinese troops directly, in any case, but would provide support to the ROC side. I don't think that the retreat from Afghanistan changes any of that and so suspect that there is a large amount of FUD here. Is it to find another reason to keep spending now that the Afghan's gravy train has stopped? Or is it politically-motivated to attack Biden?

I wouldn't be so sure. And for that, I worry for the future of humanity. Chinese aggression, or any country's aggression, should be faced down by the international community as a whole.

What would happen if the US declared war on China? That's the question, and the consequences would be too catastrophic for the US to even contemplate it unless faced with an existential threat, which the Chinese civil war isn't.

Regarding your second point, the rhetoric, if not outright propaganda, is always very interesting. In the context of the Chinese civil war, the mainland taking action against Taiwan is less of an aggression than the US invading Iraq or even Afghanistan. This is not whataboutism, this is just an observation on how terms used vary based on the country, not on their actual actions. Food for thought.

But back on topic: I think this article and these sudden mentions of Taiwan are political games to attack Biden more than anything else. They purport to suggest that Biden is weak and endangering the security of the US and their allies. Note that the person interviewed in this article is also a conservative, Republican supporter and critic of Obama when he was President.

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