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Has nothing to do with "real life". They could either win money, or lose money, that's how volatile bitcoin is. The fact they got lucky and transferred in moments where they made money, doesn't make it a better "real life" scenario. Just makes it a lucky scenario, anecdata that might have been the complete opposite.

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But if he was making money on average (which he said he did), then bayesian logic would imply that the average outcome would be to make money. So it's not luck, it's the average outcome.

The "unlucky" and unusual event in this case is losing money on Bitcoin based on the prior evidence.

It wasn't luck. The price is frequently volatile but has trended up (to a great degree) since inception.

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