congratulations on getting to launch! And in a notoriously difficult field - I hope you can "fix" recruiting :-)

My thoughts are :

I would only make the bet if I understood both sides - the skill of the candidate I am betting on (ok) - and the needs, culture and requirements of the company looking to hire.

As that second part is basically unknown then the only rational part is to withdraw the bet. Perhaps a smaller sum would work, but then betting 5 to get back 10 is no incentive - you may as well just ask.

I think I should put more effort into networking and recommending people for jobs - so something in this area is needed.

Good luck