I've been trying to find accurate signals of this and haven't found much. I've only really spent time looking into the <50 yo cohort. I think the confounders for older folks are too significant to glean much truth from the type of data we have.

Data:

Graph from the CDC: https://i.imgur.com/Ql25IjB.png Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm

Spreadsheet based on weekly UK data: https://i.imgur.com/yySYFyd.png Source (PDF warning): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

And a Twitter thread on Israel for good measure: https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1434237628258344961

All of this data says the same thing to me. Basically if you're younger there is no significant evidence these vaccines reduce your risk.

In the CDC case: They show 1-2 unvaccinated hospitalized cases out of 100k and <1 for vaccinated (<50 cohort). It's important to remember in all of this data the unvaccinated do not represent a strict control group which is analogous to one found in an RCT.

In the UK case: ~0.5% less incidence of hospitalization for <50 cohort and effectively none wrt mortality.

In the Israeli thread: Author comes to the opposite conclusion and decides to call risk reduction 90% even though they're comparing 2 extremely tiny numbers. Both less than 1 severe case out of 100,000.

If the improvement over severe outcomes is so stark, as many claim, then where should I look to see this data such that I can come to agreement?