My last "forever" led bulb just died, it lasted 3 years.
I'm not buying a $40 bulb, even from Philips, unless it has a 20 year warranty.
I think I am going to try this one next, $15 but available in soft-while intead of just pure white and it's assembled in the USA supposedly: http://www.goldengadgets.com/gt-7d-7-watt-led-globe-light-bu...
Note the helpful chart on that page halfway to the bottom (should be near the top!)
Same goes for the CFL bulbs. For me the failure rate was so high that I started writing the date on the base of the CFL every time I install a new one(1). Average lifetime of a CFL bulb so far: 9 months. A very far cry from the promised lifetime.
(1) I don't buy the cheap knock-offs at the local Big Box Store. I get top-of-the-line Sylvanias and Phillips CFL's. No difference -- they die just as fast as the cheap ones do.
Even if it has a 20 year warranty, that's not much good because the cost of using the warranty exceeds the value of product replacement. (Do you keep receipts and product packages long enough? Then there's the hassle of doing the return.)
The $15 one above looks like much better quality and 1/3rd the price of the philips. I'm not dropping $40 ever on a led bulb.