> “I truly, truly think we are in the endgame,” said Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease specialist and professor of medicine at the University of California at San Francisco. “The cases will start plummeting in mid-to-late September and by mid-October, we will be in a manageable place, where the virus is a concern for health professionals, but not really for the general public.”
Monica Ghandi has been an eternal optimist and routinely wrong.
Here she is in february arguing that india had herd immunity from prior infection and cross reactive immunity. Right before devastating delta wave: https://twitter.com/monicagandhi9/status/1361856248275079170...
Here she is in may agreeing many us areas were at herd immunity. This also proved wrong: https://twitter.com/monicagandhi9/status/1389808375437824000
She admits in the article she was wrong, but about people, not the virus. But she was very wrong about the virus.
Jay Bhattacharya was one of the three people behind the Great Barrington Declaration. Their ideas won, but it’s far from obvious they were right. Instead of elimination, they argued for living with the virus. This currently is causing oxygen shortages in Florida, and renewed restrictions as countries experience rising waves.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration
He writes:
> that’s the endpoint of the epidemic because we really can’t do better than that
Multiple countries have eliminated the virus. In fact, virtually every country that aimed at it succeeded at this goal. They had better economic outcomes and more normalcy. Bhattacharya wants to persuade that because this would be hard in the short term it is literally impossible.
His barrington declaration also failed at its goals: countries that tried it had both worse economic outcomes and also worse health outcomes.