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Comment by 11thEarlOfMar | Hacker News Reader

How much of their many successes is due to abilities versus timing? The period they invested their initial PayPal fortunes in was in the nasccent Web 2.0 era. They had the benefit of capital from the PayPal exit, plus an up to date understanding of modern web capabilities, plus the initial open source platforms and leverage, plus a great deal of learning about what didn't work in the .COM 1.0 bubble.

Plus intelligence, inventiveness and drive.

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Success is always a result of a confluence of abilities and circumstances. There has to be a good impedance match between what you can do and the state of the world so that what you do is exactly what the world needs at that point in time. Too early or too late and you fail.

Malcom Gladwell's book "Outliers" is an interesting look into this idea of how successful people come to be successful. I highly suggest it to anyone intrigued by this idea, it's a very interesting read.

The opening portion of the book focuses on Bill Gates and all the unique things in his life from early childhood and beyond that all fell into place (along with his intelligence and drive of course) to make him extremely well-equipped to be successful as a tech industry leader. namely very good timing in the tech landscape at the time and a lot of access to computer programming experience very early on which, at the time, was incredibly rare.

I think more important than any of the above is network and capital (and capital in your network)

If you helped found PayPal and then made a couple million selling your shares,

1) You could probably fund your next venture yourself

2) If not, one of your rich and prolific buddies could probably hook you up

3) If not, the prestige alone will get you in the door with VCs, partners, and other important ears that will need to be grabbed

I think we underestimate how disproportionately these factors play into success

There were thousands of others who also started companies at the time, and yet have not enjoyed success, seeing their companies go into bankruptcy in the nascent 2.0 era.

After PayPal, most of these blokes would've had a good amount of personal capital to use in future ventures. Much easier to make a million bucks when you have a million bucks.

In the Rock-n-roll biz, the easiest way to make a million dollars is to start with two million. It is a more universal saying than that though

True. I have always heard it applied to making money in aviation.

They also had the perspective of seeing countless failures to give them a sense of what might actually work.

The initial success may have included a bit of luck, but after that there was a degree of experience as well.

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