New Tesla Roadster delayed again, now shooting for 2023
uk.motor1.com
uk.motor1.com
In other words, "No."
We've pretty much broken the global supply chains with the pandemic, the responses to it, and everything else as the wheels of our global industrial civilization start grinding to a halt.
Even the "big boys" are struggling - Toyota has cut production roughly in half because they can't get chips. GM just announced they are shutting down most of their North American plants for two weeks because... they can't get chips.
Supply chains are broken. Basic electronic components, basic microcontrollers, are listed many places as "We don't have any, we don't know when we'll have any, don't ask" (coded as "52 week lead time" - I assume that's the maximum the system supports). You can't rely on getting stuff, and if you do get it, you can't rely on getting the same stuff in a month. This is before getting into any of the various global events that could really put a crimp on chip supplies...
Just once, I'd love to see Tesla be honest. "We have no idea if we're ever going to be able to make these at this point."
Didn't they essentially just say something close to this in corporate speak?
It seems quite clear that they have every intention to make them, as soon as they're quite literally able to do so from a supply chain perspective.
I currently have 9 month lead times from near every contactable company in the world for some simple polyurethane products. If polyurethane production is that backed up and having to prioritize its largest customers with existing contracts... it's somehow not too hard for me to think that there might be some real trouble with materials for the roadster, especially given the fact they're trying to make something selling for roughly $250k that puts $1MM+ competitors to shame.
But Elon said it'll all blow over by May (2020). Hard to admit you're wrong when your personality is built around always being right.
On a less cynical note, it's a cool car and I hope it gets built.
Though I would disagree with his personality built on being right - it’s built on being a futuristic visionary problem solver. Whether he’s actually solving problems, and whether they even need to be solved, that’s up for debate.
He states at least once that he is wrong all the time. At other moments he says other similar things (but sometimes more related to engeneering for example: “All designs are wrong… just a matter of how wrong”).
But I have to agree, before seeing that video I didn’t see him being so open to being wrong, and also not as technically involved or at least knowledgeable…
"Step one: Make the requirements less dumb. The requirements are definitely dumb; it does not matter who gave them to you. It’s particularly dangerous when they come from an intelligent person, as you may not question them enough. Everyone’s wrong. No matter who you are, everyone is wrong some of the time. All designs are wrong, it’s just a matter of how wrong."
https://mondaynote.com/what-makes-elon-musk-move-so-fast-8e7...
Amazing how effective this is. There is a C level executive at the Unicorn I work at that tweets Musk daily asking him for help or advice, of course getting no response. It's as if it's some sort of daily prayer.
That's probably the whole point of it. Ask yourself daily: WWMD? "What Would Musk Do?"
I've always wondered why celebs like Elon tweet. Do people not have close friends? Or is it that when Elon tweets he only sees his friends respond? All I see are troll accounts responding and it makes me wonder why anyone busy bothers.
If that's how Elon Musk thinks, he really needs to read that website that compiled all his broken promises (and how overdue he was).
Though, who knows, he might be so delusional that it wouldn't have any effect (e.g. like Trump seems to be).
So did a lot of people, including myself. I wasn't expecting people/government to react the way they did.
https://www.kbb.com/car-news/amid-chip-shortagegm-removes-st...
Main problem here is that the new Plaid has made this kinda irrelevant. The marketting pages for both the Model S and the Roadster list the same 0-60 times. They pretty much have to do that whiz-bang cold thruster magic they've talked about if they want this car to make any sense at all.
I suspect, most of all, that they don't have the capacity to make this many models in parallel - Plaid X, structural battery 3 and Y, cybertruck, semi. They're just not that large of a company. Sucks for car fans, but probably better for their bottom line if they just concentrate on their current offerings.
The only reason I don't have an S Plaid now is because the Model 3 Performance I'm driving now is already a larger feeling car than I want to drive. The Model S is a full-sized sedan, and I'd rather drive a 2-door coupe like my BRZ was. Also, being a convertible would be pretty sweet.
Until your first tire replacement bill. Then it gets old, fast.
A lot of tires have warranties too. I was getting my tires for 50% or less. (Michelin PS4S) Still had to pay for mount and balance but that’s how it goes.
It'd be one thing if it was a joke for the presentation but Musk has doubled down on it...
I'm sure the Plaid model S is faster than an MG TC too.
But that's just what I've heard, I may be misinformed.
For automotive chips, though, the problem is that there was a fire at the Renesas plant in Japan cutting into supply of those sorts of chips. And there were some mis-estimates of what demand would look like.
I can't imagine why anyone would expect Tesla to preemptively force refunds to all. I'm sure the first 10 or so pre-orders would be pissed to lose their serial number spot for no reason.
For example, Vietnam just went into lockdown. Less than 3% of the population is vaccinated.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-01/tangled-v...
Back a few years, floods in Thailand caused issues with the hard drive supply:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Thailand_floods
* https://www.zdnet.com/article/thailand-floods-to-lead-to-har...
* https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-lessons-of-thailands-flood
People are still trading efficiency for resilience it seems.
As of right now the stock is about $730. Had one purchased Tesla stock instead of reserving a roadster in 2017 it would now be valued at around $600k which is enough to buy 2 roadsters and change at $250k each. Who knows where it will be in 2023. If I recall correctly reserving a signature Model X was a similarly terrible investment vs buying the stock.
Whether the value of the $THING (and having it earlier) actually justifies the opportunity cost of the deposit simply depends on the cost/thing/schedule and the buyer's wishes.
Predicting the future is hard. Tesla almost went bankrupt multiple times. It's ok to have a car instead of a retirement.
Since its very expensive - I don't buy as much hardware as I otherwise probably would.
Much better investments in terms of transportation are available than flagship electric vehicles, however.
Who cares about that thought process just focus on making money and never run out
I thought, "Sure do like that American way of buying a vehicle that's already on the lot."
And here I sit with reservations for an electric F-150 and a Tesla vehicle, and it's hard to know when either will actually be available for delivery.
A waitlist! Can you imagine the indignity of a waitlist?
The stated ranges for the trucks include towing a load. Without the load, the range increases quite a bit.
I'll mostly use it for family adventuring -- weekend skiing, camping, cycling.
Rivian is frantically trying to IPO for $80 billion during September. If possible, before they actually ship any trucks.
Meanwhile, Ford is coming out with the electric Ford F-150. They have 70,000 pre-orders. Also, the boring but useful Ford Transit commercial van is going electric.
[1] https://electrek.co/2021/08/07/tesla-confirms-cybertruck-ele...
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/ford-f-150-lightning-production...
Rivian, Hummer, Ford and Tesla will all ship electric trucks next year, but sadly none of them in large numbers.
I’m not comparing Elon to Steve, but I think with the possible exception of SpaceX much of what I appreciate about Elon is as a goad or a foil for other people to respond to.
He’s not actually making the electric F-150, but isn’t he really? In a way?
Rivian, for example, purchased their factory in like 2017 and it’s very likely that the F150 Lightning was in the works in earnest before that Cybertruck was sketched on a napkin since Ford was talking about and teasing working prototypes of the electric F150 before the Cybertruck was announced.
What Musk is great at, above his other talents, is being a great marketer IMO.
Elon Musk's companies have often produced good things, but I find it fascinating that a man who wants to be great, can't even be half-decent.
Which will be perfect as that'll be about the time I'll have the money for one.
"Sebastian Thrun. He told me the whole industry is about to reboot. And then I saw why he said that. He literally invented the modern autonomous car field.
He started Google’s autonomous team and told me he made a mistake going with LiDAR."
To what end? I value my anonymity here. I wish there was a way to anonymously bet money on these outcomes. I'd bet you $10K (the cost of the thing) that there will be no "FSD" "later this year" like Tesla is promising.
It is also baffling that people still read Scoble who knows nothing about anything.
A valid argument on why you think Thrun is wrong would have served stance point better.
We (humans) can only do this purely optically because we have general intelligence and extensive knowledge about the world. The FSD computer in your Tesla does not.
Do they use lidar/radar/magnetic sensors ?!
Naively, i assume waves/spray is a one-time technical hurdle, but after this it is much easier to get autonomous ships?
There's a reason why I asked if you could share your work. Because those two individuals are clearly at the top of their field. If your thesis is correct, then it's easily worth 100+M if not 1B+ USD in value.
It's easy to be hyper critical, compared to actually being in the trenches trying to solve these hard problems.