Collatz-like behavior of Busy Beavers
sligocki.com
sligocki.com
One of the ways I think about how large the conventional-BB (two Bs) function is is to think about how large a TM it would take to simulate some other putatively-larger sequence. Consider the famous Tree function, for instance. Tree(3) is wildly larger than BB(3)... BB(3) is 21, Tree(3) is effectively inexpressible. Surely with such a head start, the Tree function is larger than BB? Consider, how many states would it take to program the Tree function? Surely it is a finite number, and even in a very simple TM's restricted notation, let's call it easily less than 10,000 states, where I'm being very generous because I suspect it's probably comfortably fewer than 100, but all I need is for it to be finite.
Then, consider two TMs basically smashed together; for one, we use the BB winner to generate its number on the tape, then for the next one, we use that as input to compute "Tree" of that number. (Some math work would be needed to properly weave them together but it's not that hard.) Then we have some number of states after which our BB candidates are computing Tree(BB(1)) vs. Tree(10,005) or so (giving a few states to work with to fold the TMs together), then Tree(BB(2)) vs Tree(10,006), and it's not hard to see that this sequence is going to blow tree away in just a few more iterations and never look back.
And these composited "Tree(BB(x))" functions are, by human standards, infinitesimally tiny compared to the real BB(10,006), because the busy beaver function just keeps optimally using every single state you give it to compute some ever-harder and more complex math function.
As you scale up in the TM size, the "problems" it will be solving will change as it has the states to represent them, because the BB function (and the BBB function) explore all possible TMs of a given size. So, what seeing Collatz-like conjectures at such tiny TM sizes means is that the Collatz conjecture is essentially the simplest hard problem, by the defensible (albeit not unique) standard of "what it takes to understand the behavior of a Turing machine".
It also means, measuring by the complexity of understanding the behavior of a Turing machine that solves the problem, for all Mankind's millennia of mathematical development and problem solving, there is a math problem that we don't fully understand represented a mere four steps into the mathematical thicket.
(That is, yes, this particular instance was solved nicely in the linked article, but the generalized version of this problem immediately suggested is not solvable by our math.)
Which is sobering.
It's even more sobering than that: we already know that busy beaver functions hit the bounds of decidability. From Scott Aaronson's The Busy Beaver Frontier (https://www.scottaaronson.com/papers/bb.pdf), BB(748) is already undecidable under ZF set theory if the latter is consistent.
Aaronson even conjectures that BB(20) is undecidable under ZF theory and that BB(10) is undecidable under Peano arithmetic -- he's thinks the existing proofs still have lots of room for improvement.
If BB(10) is undecidable under Peano arithmetic, then all we're left with for BB analysis is the space of very small Turing machines.
A straightforward collatz step function on binary numbers that I just cobbled together weighs in at 282 bits...
It could be that larger Busy Beaver programs engage in programming tricks to run up high scores, but it could also be that the champion programs are always elegant, instead winning by exploiting increasingly wild mathematical facts. That's what we might expect based on the results of the Bigger Number Game [1] and the C Bignum Bakeoff [2].