Binary options are fairly popular among retail traders, and are generally sold rather than bought by institutional firms. So it might be hard to find someone to take the other side of that trade.
Edit: I'm not saying it's a bad idea. There might be tax reasons to structure this a loan, but looking to binary option pricing might give you a good idea on ow much "interest" you might expect to pay.
This definitely seems like it could be a better deal than selling a small portion of equity to investors. But I also fail to see what the upside is here for you. Seems like you are taking the same risks as equity investors, while severely capping your upside.
Downside Case A: Your vested equity is worth $10mm and you borrow $1mm, but your total vested equity ends up being worth $500k in a fire sale, you would owe $500k.
Downside Case B: Your vested equity is worth $10mm and you borrow $1mm. Your total vested equity ends up being worth $1mm in a fire sale, you would owe $1mm.
In any downside case, you would owe no more than what you receive from a liquidity event. There is no scenario where you only make $100k but owe $1mm, for example. There would be no call back clauses, the loan would only be due upon a liquidity event.
Upside Case A: Your vested equity is worth $10mm and you borrow $1mm. Your total vested equity ends up being worth $100mm in an IPO, you would owe $1mm + interest ($250k?) + $900k shared upside.
Definitely less upside than an equity investment, but there are large institutional investors that want access to the venture capital asset class but can't get access to hot deals. I work in VC and have seen this first hand. This would be a vehicle to give them some exposure to hot companies. Moreover, it could expand into employee equity as well, which increases capacity for capital allocation.
I modeled the probable distribution, and in the midpoint scenario, a portfolio of 100 Seed-Series C startups would likely return 10-15% net IRR. That's good enough to attract institutional capital.
That seems like an interesting trade off. More exposure to the upside at the expense of a potential payout in an underwater exit. I suppose in a ZIRP environment, a product like this makes sense, and I know a few folks who might be interested.
BTW, how will the interest and the share upside percentage be determined?
Interest rate would be LIBOR + some fixed % (probably 5%). Shared upside would be fixed at 10-15%.