The title describes the content of the article. I think people should be treated as adults (esp. on HN). We should be able to discuss Covid-19 science and data without always fearing misinterpretation from anti-vaxxers.
> This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant.
> Listing cold facts does not effectively communicate to the broad public
It’s very patronizing.
The lies and lies by omission are literal oxygen to anti-vaxxers because they can point out, with proof, that we were lied to. Naturally the next question is, what else are we being lied to about?
Stop lying, start treating people like adults, be upfront from the start, and you'll see anti-vax and anti-expert sentiment dissipate.
I would also point out that there is an intentional conflation between anti-vaxxers (those opposed to all vaccines) and vaccine hesitant (those who are pro-vaccine generally, but are weary about a new vaccine or were already infected and have natural immunity). The latter are being grouped with the former, and this has also destroyed a great amount of credibility and trust.
I've only seen Anti-vaxxers treated as adults from the onset, being upfront about the data etc. It just get disputed, debated and then denied.
I'm burnt out and numb to them at this point. I do agree with you that information shouldn't be omitted; However, the damage is done at this point. It's not going to stop either.
I agree it’s unlikely anyone will give it up willingly.
No, this isn't the reason. Straight, clear communication of facts from professionals is one of the best ways to combat erroneous viewpoints.
Telling people the truth (including what you don't yet know) and letting them freely assume their own risks is a powerful way to win them over.
> because they receive the message not by learning the new facts to change their word view, but by trying to fit it in their world view
People don't change their worldview because someone tries to change it for them. Straight facts without manipulation of any sort is the best way.
People know when they're being manipulated, talked down to, and lied to. That's the worst way to try to change their opinion. Fauci and other officials did a lot of this early on, unfortunately, and they lost credibility with large swaths of the public, leaving a truth vacuum that badly misinformed youtubers rushed in to fill.
For better and for worse, this is not true with most people. Most people are most open to changing their viewpoints if you engage them in a manner where you try to take their side, first, and then lead them in a new direction.
Straight facts might work best for you, but I'm afraid they're pretty much a sure-fire away to turn off most adults who've already made up their minds and don't already agree with you.
I don't remember the source but I read recently that peer pressure is far more likely to change someones mind about a given subject.
As for the rest, yes other approaches must be employed instead.
They do just fine.
The problem is "science" "journalism".
To me science mags title is much more sensationalistic and there is a reason they did not chose a title more closely aligned to what the authors of the original study chose.
It is not clickbait, (if true) this is just a fact.
Knowing that previously infected people maintain immunity high levels against variants is important for people making informed decisions about their situations.
What GP is really worried about is this fact being misused to incentivize people NOT to get the vaccine.
> It is not clickbait, (if true) this is just a fact.
And I was pointing out that this statement is based on flawed logic. I wasn't commenting on truth/falsehood or clickbait/non-clickbait. I'm just objecting to incorrectly reasoning from one to the other.
This isn't clickbait because this fact is pertinent.
I don't disagree with it being relevant but if one reads just the title of this article and had previously been infected they may believe they do not need to be vaccinated, but that isn't the case.
According to this study folks who were infected previously are more than 2x as likely to be reinfected than those who were previously infected and then vaccinated: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm?s_cid=mm...
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/people-whove-had-covi...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/08/09/covid-...
There is no reason to assume medical experts are free of groupthink. There is also no reason to assume the medical industrial and related government regulators are free from corruption. Which makes it all the more important to question the advice we are given by “experts” and ask if it makes any sense. To me it doesn’t.
In the beginning of the pandemic, most of them told us NOT to wear masks.
It's as if we need to post a disclaimer in advance that we agree with the consensus first in order to post a fact like OP.
For example, OP's fact correlates with the recent study that demonstrated that getting one shot of Moderna and one shot of Pfizer was more effective than getting two shots of either.
...and none of that is a surprise to virologists, because a diversity of antibodies is obviously going to be more effective at combating infection, and more importantly, provide broader protection against variants.
...but instead OP gets downvotes because of the fear that some imbecile is going to repost this all over Facebook in order to convince people to not get vaccinated.
Think about the consequences of this reflex. We cannot talk about the truth in-depth because less informed people might be mislead by misinterpreting it. This diminishes the quality of our conversations. It puts a cap on the intelligence of this community.
...and when you first identify this phenomenon - you begin to recognize it all over the place on social media. True verifiable facts being downvoted because they might maybe work against the "greater good" agenda in a less sophisticated forum. ...and that ultimately causes a dumbing down of the conversations - something very noticeable on Reddit and Twitter.
We can all agree we want less death and suffering. However, it isn't difficult to imagine that other goals may exist.
"The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world" - Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum
It could also apply, for example, to the hundreds of millions of people world wide who have already been infected.
I don't think a fact should assume an audience.
Anyway, re-reading your point... My headline wasn't intended to be aimed at any person. It's a hypothetical statement about covid immunity level after surviving covid. Glad I didn't go into journalism.
"I'm very worried about getting Covid, but I'm also worried about the vaccine, so I'll get Covid to protect me against Covid?"
This is an important public health topic to model how the pandemic proceeds as more and more are naturally infected.
I suggest, if you are unfamiliar with his work, that you read up on Kant's categorical imperative, in particular his absolute prohibition against lying. He argues that lying, even noble lying, is bad because it dehumanises the ones being lied to. If we stop treating each other as humans with rights, needs and desires, we will find ourselves in a very bad place - history has shown us that.
Completely understandable, and, I agree.
> I believe they can always govern by telling the truth, and if they did so they would find themselves commanding more respect from the people.
Regarding "can always govern by telling the truth," that's demonstrably untrue. For instance, there is such a thing as classified information for a reason (that reason ostensibly being national security). Yes, this does get abused at times, but that's not an argument that the government should not classify any information. Given your reference to Kant, I don't necessarily expect you to find this persuasive, but, I wager many reasonable people would.
> ...Kant's categorical imperative....
I am actually familiar, but I reject the logic of it. It's... well... too categorical. I can't accept a principle that forbids me to take an action that may save a life. For example, I would be prohibited from hiding someone in my home who's being pursued by people who want to kill them, if the pursuers asked me directly where that person was.
> If we stop treating each other as humans with rights, needs and desires, we will find ourselves in a very bad place - history has shown us that.
I agree with this, but I reject the idea that not following the categorical imperative at all times necessarily deprives anyone of any right.
Now I understand that, stretched to extremes, Kant's theory gets rather tricky to defend, such as a hypothetical situation of a Nazi coming to your house to ask if you are harbouring Jews he plans to kill. But Kant and others since have argued ways to deal with such situations too, though I must admit I haven't studied their arguments in detail and wouldn't do them justice to try to paraphrase. But I don't think we're really dealing with such a high stakes situation in the context of this discussion, so I think "lower order" arguments in favour of Kant (like mine) suffice. This is something I expect you'll disagree with given your response.
Coming back to the original context of governments lying to people to get them to have vaccines: I think it's possible to do huge damage to public trust in government and science if lies are told for the (always subjective) "greater good", even if the immediate outcome is positive. Governments should understand Kant.
P.S. thanks for your level headed response, it's refreshing and rare to see in threads that discuss COVID.
P.P.S. sometimes it needs to be said explicitly: I am open to changing my views on this if I hear a convincing argument.
Do individuals have a right to their own body?
Does a collective or a technocrat have a right to coerce an individual into a medical procedure?
If we answer "yes" to the second question, only then does it become relevant because we must next ask:
Is there a limit to what a collective or technocrat can medically impose upon an individual, where and why do we draw this line?
Insofar as their rights don't impact the rights of others.
Individuals have a right to drink alcohol. They do not have a right to then drive a car.
Vaccination by mandate is an extension of that reasoning. You have a right not to get vaccinated, but you don't have a right to participate in the public. Because restricting public interaction is neigh impossible (Even with imprisonment) the lesser of the two evils is mandated vaccination.
> Is there a limit to what a collective or technocrat can medically impose upon an individual, where and why do we draw this line?
Yes, communicable illnesses prevention. That's the line. It's something that seems to have been lost on the modern era. It was not controversial 50, 100, or 150+ years ago to quarantine people with disease by force of government (but often just voluntarily). This notion that there is no public interest in disease prevention and instead it's a "individual choice" is modern. Likely due to the advances in medicine, ironically vaccination, that have weakened the effects of most diseases.
I dislike this moral pearl clutching. Perhaps it's because I'm more morally a utilitarian.
At the end of the day, the harm caused by vaccination is next to 0 for almost all the population. The small percentage with adverse reactions is a small price to pay for society to work in general. The alternative is a lot more harm that we are currently seeing from the covid deaths.
>It was not controversial 50, 100, or 150+ years ago to quarantine people
However there are unprecedented measures taken today. We're nearly 2 years into lockdowns. Moratoriums on rent, unemployment subsidies, massive increases in gov spending and a host of other unprecedented economic interventions.
There are debates over why the least vulnerable, healthy populations are subject to the same restrictions as the obese and elderly. If obesity is a risk factor and we have a "collective responsibility", then why hasn't the gov mandated exercise?
>At the end of the day, the harm caused by vaccination is next to 0 for almost all the population. The small percentage with adverse reactions is a small price to pay for society...
And if this were untrue, where would we see this information? Are there no other incentives we should be considering, such as the great reset, vaccine passports, digital ID, CBDCs or even vanilla economic interventions? We're dealing with a trust deficit in public figures and media institutions. It is hard to blame the cynic for previous incidents of propaganda.
> The alternative is a lot more harm that we are currently seeing from the covid deaths.
I'm not convinced a voluntary quarantine of high risk groups would be more harmful medically or economically. The response has caused incalculable economic damage and disruption of individual's lives.
These are ineffective because of people's refusal to cooperate. These methods work best if we work together. Because some people chose to ignore measures, it means we're prolonging the misery.
There are debates over why the least vulnerable, healthy populations are subject to the same restrictions as the obese and elderly. If obesity is a risk factor and we have a "collective responsibility", then why hasn't the gov mandated exercise?
Because the least vulnerable and healthy population can spread diseases to the obese and the elderly.
Exercise is a useful health intervention. It's also not very effective for losing weight. It's also the government's fault that we are obese to begin with, because the governments are responsible for urban design, dietary and market regulation.
I'm not convinced a voluntary quarantine of high risk groups would be more harmful medically or economically. The response has caused incalculable economic damage and disruption of individual's lives.
It is unclear to me why only partial quarantine would be useful. It just means that the virus are spreading among the healthy. The moment we stop the quarantine, the moment people starts dying.
In what sense is this not an unfalsifiable hypothesis? Are cases exploding in Japan because of the 1% of people who don't wear masks in public there? Are Australia and New Zealand trapped in dystopian house arrest because there are just boatloads of degenerates who won't follow the rules?
What the hell good is a public health intervention if it requires an impossibly perfect 100% level of compliance to even work? And crumbles to pieces the second you relax the restriction?
However, because COVID in the US is a political thing, it's easily 30%+ of americans that aren't "following the rules". In my state of Idaho, there were rallies to get together and burn masks. [1]
Have you ever heard of mask burning rallies in either Japan or Australia?
It's not political in most nations. This is primarily a US problem.
Anecdotally, at the height of COVID compliance in Idaho I never saw > 50% masking participation.
[1] https://www.opb.org/article/2021/03/08/mask-burning-idaho-or...
The studies are still out, but early reports are showing that delta is hitting more than just the old and the fat [1].
In particular, pregnant woman seem to be at particularly high risk of death. [2]
The problem with these communicable disease is they can mutate. Delta appears to be breaking a lot of the older assumptions about who is at risk. Perhaps that's because the older population is better vaccinated than the younger population and delta is just more deadly for all.
> If obesity is a risk factor and we have a "collective responsibility", then why hasn't the gov mandated exercise?
Because whether or not you exercise does not change your ability to spread COVID. It may improve your chances of survival but it does not change the burden one way or another on how you are affecting society around.
Further, it will take months/years to lose enough weight to eventually move out of the risk category for COVID. A vaccine takes minutes.
> And if this were untrue, where would we see this information? Are there no other incentives we should be considering, such as the great reset, vaccine passports, digital ID, CBDCs or even vanilla economic interventions? We're dealing with a trust deficit in public figures and media institutions. It is hard to blame the cynic for previous incidents of propaganda.
The trust problem is precisely from propaganda. It's because, frankly, Trump kept saying "fake news" and casting doubt on experts without a shred of evidence backing his assertions. Pushing untested and unproven medications which ultimately spawned the "ivermectin" crowd which is now taking horse dewormer to try and combat covid.
The deficit because an autocrat got power and pulled the typical move of an autocrat.
The experts have been straight through covid. It's the yellow journalists and russian interference [3] that have been spitting out mistrust where none existed previously.
[1] https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/view/younger-people-in...
[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-icus-doctor...
[3] https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/docu...
Yes, but under your theory of collectivism, we all have a responsibility to protect these obese individuals via authoritarian measures. Therefore, if they were not obese, we would not be burdened by the collective responsibility they impose upon us.
I'm disappointed that you've brought Trump into the discussion. I'm not a fan of the political classes as a rule, so it pains me to defend him here. He was recently panned for recommending the vaccine to his followers at a rally in Alabama.
As for autocracy, it seems a bit ironic to level this accusation in a discussion defending authoritarian lockdowns and medical interventions.
If you can't see any other problems with the mainstream political landscape outside of your focus on Mr. Trump, then there's really nothing more to say here. I could cite Iraqi WMD, Snowden's revelations, Obama's Nobel Peace Prize, the lab leak controversy or a number of other incidents, but it seems futile at this point.
When you play the Trump card you reveal your hand as a partisan.
'you don't have a right to participate in the public'.
Universal Declaration of Human Rights
Article 3. Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person.
Article 9. No one shall be subjected to arbitrary arrest, detention or exile.
Article 13.1. Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each state.
https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-huma...
'quarantine people with disease'.
This is an elementary precaution that everyone, vaccinated or not, should voluntarily take at symptom onset. Not only for covid, but for flu as well. However, preemptively restricting the rights of healthy people, just because they may eventually catch a disease, is unheard of.
It is not. In fact, most quarantines take exactly that form where entire households, communities, or in the extreme case cities are locked down. [1]
COVID is unique in that it is both more deadly and more infectious than the flu. That's why the measures have been so extreme. They are warranted.
Further, COVID has the major issue that a large number of people are asymptomatic. It doesn't work to say "Well, just have people feeling sick stay home" when a large number of people that are spreading the disease don't even know they have it. [2]
> 'you don't have a right to participate in the public'.
I was perhaps unclear, I mean "being infected with a disease removes your right to participate in public". Without the disease modifier, yes, you have a right to public interaction. Just like you have a right to drive without the drunk modifier.
In any event, even the UN agrees that quarantining seemingly healthy people in the face of covid isn't a human rights violation. [3]
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/historyquarantine.html
[2] https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us/news-press/news-deta...
[3] https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/guidance_on_quaran...
Link 3 does not support your point: 'The term “quarantine” refers to the separation and restriction of movement of non-sick persons to see if they become sick.'. There is no blanket support for indefinite restriction of rights.
Furthermore, the 'line' is muddy. Vaccines are only 66% effective against delta. This means that 33% of vaccinated people are, under your definition, walking public health risks that may catch covid and start shedding virus in the population. Thus we should also indefinitely quarantine vaccinated people.
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/2021082...
What "rights" are is muddy. I'm not proposing an outright quarantine. Nobody is. However, I thought it prudent to point out that the "quarantining of healthy individuals" is not unique or unjustified. Your previous comment suggested that all quarantines are human rights violations.
However, what I see from all medical experts is social distancing, masking, and getting vaccination. Those are the "rights" being infringed on at the moment.
At one point, the CDC did recommend that someone vaccinated didn't need to mask up. Unfortunately, that changed with Delta as you correctly point out.
A vaccine + mask would be highly effective at stopping the spread of delta.
I have yet to see medical evidence that vaccinating under 20s, for which the risk of covid-infection complications are vanishingly small, has significant positive effects for them. There are people that have already got covid, and their immunity to covid is much stronger than that of mRNA vaccinated people (see the OP article). These 2 classes of unvaccinated people should not be forced to undertake an unnecessary medical procedure with an unclear long-term risk profile.
Covid is endemic, there is no path to ZeroCovid. Thus population-level arguments are uncompelling: we are all going to be exposed to one or more covid strains during our lifetime. Given how post-infection immunity is strong (see the OP article), the bulk of the argument comes down to how to manage the first exposure.
Riddle me out: There are vaccines, they work really well, I am vaccinated, you probably are vaccinated. Vaccinate your loved ones. We are safe, to the extent of mRNA vaccines are long-term safe. Why do you have to insist that everyone has to take them, to the extent of proposing abject tyranny to accomplish this goal? What are you afraid of?
Not a rhetorical question, I stumbled upon an intriguing piece recently: https://thestoa.substack.com/p/ontological-flooding-towards-...
> The fears that come online for the COVID thesis: I fear dying from the virus and being responsible for the death of others. I also fear being called dumb for not understanding the science and shamed for being called a bad person by failing to act in ways that would protect others.
> The fears that come online for the COVID antithesis: I fear losing freedoms and giving my power away to top-down control structures that can slip into totalitarianism. I also fear being societally segregated and persecuted by those scapegoating me for this mess.
(If it wasn't clear yet, I also worry about a medical covid antithesis: for <20s, getting the mRNA vaccines is unnecessary and potentially long-term worse than doing nothing.)
Where do you see anyone proposing a perpetual quarantine? Do you feel we are currently under one?
> has significant positive effects for them
Because covid has something like a 1->2% mortality rate among the unvacinated, for 98%+ of the entire population a covid vaccine doesn't provide any positive effects.
Indeed, most diseases we vaccinate follow a similar pattern.
So why should any vaccination be applied?
At the end of the day it's a numbers game, the more people that are vaccinated and continue to keep their vaccinations up to date, the fewer people will be killed by illness. Vaccinations prevent more suffering than they cause. A little arm soreness is a small price to pay if it saves several lives.
This is especially important for herd immunity. The more people are vaccinated the more protected vulnerable populations are (including the vaccinated population).
> Covid is endemic, there is no path to ZeroCovid. Thus population-level arguments are uncompelling: we are all going to be exposed to one or more covid strains during our lifetime. Given how post-infection immunity is strong (see the OP article), the bulk of the argument comes down to how to manage the first exposure.
Sadly, I agree that we are past ever eliminating COVID. So next steps are what's reasonable.
With that, I think we aren't out of the woods for government and public actions against covid. We are currently in a state of being overwhelmed in our ICUs by covid. That says to me that masking and vaccination pushes should be pushed longer. Until we've exited the stage where our ICUs are overburdened it's hard to think that we should be lifting restrictions. [1]
> Riddle me out: There are vaccines, they work really well, I am vaccinated, you probably are vaccinated. Vaccinate your loved ones. We are safe, to the extent of mRNA vaccines are long-term safe. Why do you have to insist that everyone has to take them, to the extent of proposing abject tyranny to accomplish this goal? What are you afraid of?
I think saying that a vaccination mandate is "abject tyranny" is hyperbole. The vast majority of children have vaccine mandates against a bunch of diseases. Are they under an oppressive thumb? Are their lives ruined or harmed?
It is reasonable to push, and push hard, for people to be vaccinated. It isn't asking people to sell their souls, chop off an arm, or anything else. It's a small prick that you've been through. Anyone can get it, nobody is restricted from getting it.
The "tyranny" they'd experience by refusing to take the vaccine is the same sort of "tyranny" someone would experience if they decided to walk around a public park refusing clothing.
What freedoms are actually lost by a vaccine mandate? Vaccines aren't an inherent quality of anyone. It's not immutable like age or race. Tyranny is specifically persecution over aspects individuals can't control. Tyranny doesn't have a quick escape hatch of being poked in the arm.
The fact is, a switch out of the oppressed group takes 10 seconds.
The fear that this is a "slippery slope" is moot, because we already have vaccine mandates for other diseases. The only slip here is adding one more disease to the list.
You fear tyranny, can you see why I'd see that as irrational? Are you really afraid that the unvaccinated will be sent to the gas chambers? Even if this were a slope, how do you see the next steps of tyranny? "Oh, we mandated a vaccine and that went well, now let's round up the xxxxxx and oppress them!".
[1] https://www.kmvt.com/2021/08/18/covid-19-cases-are-rising-id...
Covid does not have 1-2% mortality rate among the unvaccinated. The difference between <20s and >70s is orders of magnitude. From BBC: 'Data from the first 12 months of the pandemic in England shows 25 under-18s died from Covid. [...] 13 living with complex neuro-disabilities [...] 6 had no underlying conditions recorded in the last five years. [...] 25 deaths in a population of some 12 million children in England gives a broad, overall mortality rate of 2 per million children.' For comparison, the death rate from drowning for 5-19s in US is 1/100k, 5x larger (20x if we only count healthy children). For 1-4s the drowning death rate is a calamitous 3/100k, 15x larger (60x if we only count healthy children). And that's just drowning.
We need to get a grip.
Traditional vaccines provide long term, often lifelong protection against nasty diseases. Some of them are sterilizing the virus, leading to eradication of the disease. mRNA vaccines do not prevent infection, do not prevent transmission, need a 6 month booster and are at risk of becoming obsolete and require a different vaccine strain (and then we boost each vaccine strain every 6 months?!)
> Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told Fox it was likely a vaccine-resistant variant would emerge.
> Bourla said Pfizer could make a shot tailor-made for such a variant within 95 days of its discovery.
> The CDC director said the virus could be "a few mutations" away from evolving to evade vaccines.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db149.htm
https://www.insider.com/pfizer-ceo-vaccine-resistant-coronav...
Article 29. Everyone has duties to the community in which alone the free and full development of his personality is possible. ... In the exercise of his rights and freedoms, everyone shall be subject only to such limitations as are determined by law solely for the purpose of securing due recognition and respect for the rights and freedoms of others and of meeting the just requirements of morality, public order and the general welfare in a democratic society. ... These rights and freedoms may in no case be exercised contrary to the purposes and principles of the United Nations.
Article 30. Nothing in this Declaration may be interpreted as implying for any State, group or person any right to engage in any activity or to perform any act aimed at the destruction of any of the rights and freedoms set forth herein.
Which between them basically nullify articles 1 though 28 to the extent that the infringement can be justified on the basis of "morality" or "public order" or "duties the community"… which is how governments aiming to present themselves as anything more than petty criminal gangs have always justified violating human rights, with or without the UDHR.
Regarding the original quote, though:
> you don't have a right to participate in the public
You do have a right to participate in the public—or more precisely, no one has the right to stop you from interacting voluntarily with whichever members of the public you choose, so long as the other parties consent to the interaction. However, if that participation in the public leads to you getting someone else sick through your own negligence or reckless disregard for others' welfare then you are morally responsible for the consequences of that infection and liable to make the injured party whole, or as close to whole as they can possibly get. Ergo, you ought to take steps to ensure that doesn't happen, for example though vaccination, for your own sake as well as others'.
So the vaccine is safe and effective.
But you miss human emotions 101: If someone tells you they are worried about something, you don’t throw facts at them as the first thing. You ask them to tell more about their emotions, hear them and make them feel heard. They might as well be missing factual data (as the case with vaccine hesitating folks) but their emotions are real, and unless they are treated as a person they’d be close to influence because they are in a skeptic, anxious state to begin with.
Often people barge in like performing an exorcism expecting the power of data compelling the “possessed” demonized other to the “light”. Such vilification is a self-fulfilling process.
Finally you make the assumption that people have a problem with understanding the propositions. I'm saying they have a problem with not being heard about their emotions. You've just demonstrated that, in addition to not listening well.
Over 30: Take the vaccine and hope for the best.
Under 20:
a. Take the vaccine and be naked when the vaccine resistant variant eventually emerges.
b. Don't take the vaccine and build wide spectrum immunity to infections from covid family. Considering that the risk of complications from covid infection for this age group is in the same ballpark as the flu.
First, this is deeply deeply misleading, to the point of being misinformation. The idea that a version of COVID will pop out that renders the current vaccines completely useless is founded in nothing but alarmist speculation. Could it happen? Maybe. But we have a virus now that's known to be dangerous, for which we have a vaccine that's very effective. To not take that vaccine, now, based on this speculative fear is completely nonsensical.
Second, it's a false dichotomy:
c. Take the vaccine, get a mild breakthrough case of covid later that builds even stronger protection.
If there is more information on the long-term behavior of the immune system conditioned on vaccines and/or natural immunity and/or mutations, please share. My understanding is that nobody has a complete understanding and a reliable prediction model. Everybody is making educated guesses in the dark, though I am very open to learn more from credible sources.
We are absolutely not.
Are there many things we don't know about the function of the immune system?
Sure.
Are we "in the dark"? This couldn't be more incorrect, and again, borders on deeply misleading misinformation.
Frankly, this smells a lot like the kind of climate change denial we used to hear. i.e., because there was uncertainty, we therefore can trust nothing and know nothing. And that "logic" was just as flawed, then, as it is now.
Did we know ahead of time when/where Delta will arise? Did we know ahead of time its infectiousness / virulence parameters?
Do we know when / where the next strain will arise? Do we know if it will be more/less infectious than Delta? Do we know if it will be more/less virulent than Delta? How about per age group?
Do we know whether vaccines protect against potential future vaccine resistant strains? Admittedly an oxymoron, but such is the ridiculousness of this conversation.
What we do know is that the virus is likely to mutate to avoid the narrow spectrum mRNA vaccines. We don't know when / where / how.
That's what I call educated guesses in the dark.
PS. Please do us a favor and keep your ad-hominems for yourself. It may feel good in the moment, but it doesn't strengthen your arguments.
Some of the original variants are thought to have arisen out of immuno-compromised pre-vaccinated patients. Maybe they got IVIg, monoclonal antibodies, or convalescent plasma.
> but do get a vaccine-resistant infection later on.
This is a redherring.
This would be the equivalent to have never encountered covid and getting infected by that variant then. So you know maybe a new kid born in the next few months or something.
It'd also be equivalent to someone getting chemo that wipes out their immune system and now gets covid after they recover.
If covid mutates sufficiently fast, say as fast as HIV then we will have a big time problem.
I'm afraid the general publicly is woefully underequipped to engage in nuanced discussions around this topic. They need simple and clear instructions.
Given that there is a non-0% chance of death or harm from taking the vaccine, why should they then get vaccinated? They are already less of a risk to themselves and others than someone who has been vaccinated.
The CDC estimates that 36% of Americans have been infected.
I haven't done the sums but I suspect the risk of harm from the vaccine is less than the benefits the vaccine gives (especially when you factor in the duration of protecection depending when you had Covid vs when you had the vaccine).
I know people who've recovered from serious Covid and still got vaccinated. I would.
> The researchers also found that people who had SARS-CoV-2 previously and then received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine were more highly protected against reinfection than those who once had the virus and were still unvaccinated.
At least that’s how France does it, and that strategy might come in handy again as they plan to give boosters with influenza vaccines to everyone over 65.
Erm everyone I know under 40 got it because of a huge marketing campaign, wanting to travel with as few restrictions as possible and not wanting a vaccine passport to party.
Its very irresponsible, look at this nonsense masquarading as peer review of a preprint 24 hours ago
Furthermore, getting a vaccine for last year’s ailment cannot be compared to this year’s ailment, although its obvious people dont really have a choice in the matter the study should at least lead with that. There will be delta specific vaccines soon, compare to natural immunity then.