This is a testable proposition. We can look at the list of billion dollar startups from 10 years ago (all 11 of them) and see how they fared since: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicoleperlroth/2011/06/02/the-b...

Kayak, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Bloom Energy and Integra Telecom (Electric Lightwave) are still doing well, Groupon and Zynga are significantly diminished and Living Social, Gilt Group and Better Place are dead.

So the answer appears to be 50/50 and social commerce was a huge fad.