World's biggest wind turbine shows the disproportionate power of scale
newatlas.com
newatlas.com
But that does remind of Thunderscreech: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_XF-84H_Thunderscreech
"The XF-84H was almost certainly the loudest aircraft ever built, earning the nickname "Thunderscreech" as well as the "Mighty Ear Banger".[16] On the ground "run ups", the prototypes could reportedly be heard 25 miles (40 km) away.[17] Unlike standard propellers that turn at subsonic speeds, the outer 24–30 inches (61–76 cm) of the blades on the XF-84H's propeller traveled faster than the speed of sound even at idle thrust, producing a continuous visible sonic boom that radiated laterally from the propellers for hundreds of yards."
(I use to work on utility scale wind farms with 100+ x 2.1MW turbines)
[0] https://www.semprius.com/how-fast-do-wind-turbines-spin/ [1] https://www.windpowerengineering.com/calculate-blade-tip-spe...
A quick google says large turbines can rotate up to 20 rpm, so once every 3 seconds, that's 710/3 = 236m/s, so Mach 0.68
(edit) I think 29rpm is when the tips of blades go supersonic for that turbine.
"The best way to get the correct answer on the internet is to give the wrong one". I look forward to being corrected...
Depends on the site and readers. As we've seen recently, wrong answers take on a life of their own and become gospel or canon to eliminate religious overtones.
0:https://www.airspacemag.com/how-things-work/zwrrwwwbrzr-4846...
EDIT: Taking operational capacity (26% for wind, 86% for nuclear) into account, you arrive at about 250 to replace one nuclear plant. Still insane.
Source: https://qr.ae/pGWlu4
https://www.ge.com/renewableenergy/wind-energy/offshore-wind...
Mostly because at such heights wind is generally higher and more consistent.
France produces 75% of their electricity with 56 nuclear power plants, which - if the above is broadly correct - you would be able to replace with 7000 of these wind mills. That's a lot, but on the other hand, Germany has already installed 20k wind turbines so far, so it seems within reach. Obviously you still need to think about matching supply and demand, but I'm surprised by how feasible this appears.
Sadly, not everything is so green here, like it may sound.
They're supposed to prove the supremacy of french engineering companies with the new EPR design, however all it's shown so far is the many inadequacies of any institution we've known so far to respect basic security/operating principles.
There are many, many EPR-related scandals to explore if you speak french, and even more scandals relative to french engineering companies if you're curious like Lafarge, Areva, Bouygues..
In addition to electricity, nuclear power plants also produce a lot of heat, which can be used for district heating purposes (called co-generation), as is done frequently in northern and eastern Europe. Heating is the dominant component of the final energy consumption, accounting for close to half of all energy use. This is apparent when driving around in an electric car - keeping the cabin warm easily accounts for ~30% of the consumption. Wind turbines obviously produce no surplus heat to extract
https://www.climateforesight.eu/energy/nuclear-power-feeling...
https://www.npr.org/2018/07/27/632988813/hot-weather-spells-...
Thermal power stations face a panoply of potential malfunctions, regardless of their heat source. They are very, very complex.
Is that the case though? To my knowledge nuclear reactor heat is only used to produce electricity and kill biodiversity in rivers so far.
Also, nuclear reactors are built far away from populous area for obvious security concerns. Are there adequate mechanisms for transporting heat over long distances? That's already a problem for electricity, which incurs huge losses (heat dissipation).
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Haiyang-begins-c...
For net heating climates, my understanding is that this form of heating can be much more efficient than alternatives like electric heating.
> my understanding is that this form of heating can be much more efficient than alternatives like electric heating.
It makes sense that mutualizing efforts to produce heat is gonna have a better yield/efficiency. I'm just sure nuclear energy is a disaster (at least all known and planned implementations so far) and i'm not sure whether using that excess heat in this manner is efficient. I'm very sure, though, that it's considerably better than rejecting very hot water into natural streams where it destroys ecosystems.
Really? Look at Pickering nuclear power station for example. Highly populated area all around it.
In any case, in that model, heating housing using nuclear sites heat makes perfect sense.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor#Capacity_facto...
I have no major problem with more renewables per se, but unless you're in the Orkneys or a dessert/Mediterranean climate, it appears to me that there are always times when they're not available and so you have build out something as a back-up.
As someone who lives in Ontario, Canada, we have nuclear plants providing >10,0000 MW continuously (click "Supply"):
* https://www.ieso.ca/power-data
Hydro and gas area scaled up as needed (especially over the last few days with >30C weather), and wind is very "random". (We have only a token amount of solar.)
Right now it's not possible, and there is no solution in sight.
Edit: Why I'm being downvoted, we can't store energy at scale for now, end of the story.
Goes to show that many here do not fully understand the challenges of running an electric grid and also that far too many have bought into the propaganda of wind, solar and battery storage being the sole path forward.
Not large enough. There isn't enough space on earth for all the lakes needed to make pumped hydro work. Sure where there is unused potential we should use it, but there isn't a whole lot of places left where we can do it - even before we get into how hydro tends to destroy ecosystems.
The problem with battery energy storage is not cost but scale. There isn't a battery in the world that can power a gigawatt scale electric grid for more than a few minutes. The original point is a good one - no renewable generation technology is a replacement for coal/gas/nuclear simply due to the unpredictable and variable nature of renewable generation.
Edit - it is very telling that information and views that go against the grain of "renewable energy is the sole future" are instantly downvoted. Shame on you.
The actual issues are the cost efficiency of batteries, the amount of batteries that can be produced in total, and the flexibility of the power grid. Flexibility of the power grid is a known solvable problem, although how much it will cost to improve our infrastructure there is an important question. The point you were responding to was presumably arguing that $100kw/h batteries exist, and that that’s cost efficient enough. The questions are A) Is it true batteries at that cost exist, B) Is that actually cost efficient enough, and C) Can we produce enough of them to deal with the scale of batteries needed. Your post didn’t really argue against any of those points, just stated vacuously that current setups aren’t sufficient. Obviously current setups aren’t sufficient, the question is if we are approaching the cost point where they could be.
Finally, these are just Li-ion prices. Na-ion and Fe-ion are also very close to deployment now. Both of them cannot match the energy density of Li-ion, but that's fine. Grid storage depends on cost, not energy density anyway
A lot of smaller batteries is effectively equivalent to a single larger battery and that does not get around the problem from above - they simply cannot store enough energy for more than short periods. A handful of large hydro reservoirs store more potential energy than all chemical batteries in the world combined.
Meanwhile, extreme weather events are getting more common. Texas - for example - had a nearly 10,000 MW shortfall between their forecast and the actual, served demand. Is a battery every going to supply capacities like that for hours on end? No. During that cold snap, some wind turbines froze, some didn't see enough wind and much of the solar wasn't generating at full tilt. What then? Do we shrug our shoulders and say "no heat, too bad"?
Chemical storage batteries cannot power large grids for extended periods and that is the fundamental problem being ignored, not their cost.
The problem with HN is that people do not think outside their silicon valley and techbro bubble. Another comment here suggested that domestic loads can be served with a battery. Sure, if you live in California and don't need much heat. This is the problem - when someone points out that what is proposed is not viable everywhere and that a mix of solutions is needed, it gets downvoted because it doesn't follow the "renewable energy is the be all and end all" argument.
> Chemical storage batteries cannot power large grids for extended periods and that is the fundamental problem being ignored, not their cost.
You are being downvoted because this is just an opinion, not backed by any facts on the ground. Most solar installs today itself come with 4 hours of battery backup. Also, several posters and I have given cost figures on how much multi-day battery backups would cost even at current prices. So your insistence that batteries only last for a few minutes is getting downvoted, and calling people techbros isn't helping either.
Solar + Storage 100% can replace residential power usage. Ask anyone with a home battery and solar. Density is obviously a factor, but seems straight forward to solve.
Industrial energy usage, I think it’s seperate, but also is very moveable. Ie we can change how industry works to surge production at peak solar and wind, and then reduce when that power is not available. Plus battery storage still works here (Not just lithium either, hydro, thermal, compressed a air, gravity store).
Where exactly do you see “unpredictable” energy problems that storage or shifting doesn’t solve?
I'd posit that it's mostly cost, otherwise it would be a solved problem now.
Certainly we can scale - even if it means putting low-cost batteries behind the meter (that solves, for a very modest sum, 90% of power consumers' problems). That's a horizontal scaling, obviously.
For the consumer types that need a lot of energy, then we need to come up with more imaginative solutions for their requirements. These types of turbines are almost definitely part of that.
Aside - complaining about downvotes is bad form. My feeling is your myriad comments on this article exhibit vehemence, and imply everyone else is ill-informed. It's possible we all have something to learn.
As i said originally, the technical problem is scale. Even if cost does fall, no battery can power a gigawatt scale grid for more than a few minutes. Yes - minutes. During an extreme weather event, what will happen? There is a lot to learn but the solution - and this the part that people don't like hearing - is a mix of technologies. Batteries are a thin slice of the solution. We need more hydro generation, more nuclear, more wind and more solar PV. It is not a binary choice as many here seem to believe.
Certainly.
> Even if cost does fall, no battery can power a gigawatt scale grid for more than a few minutes. Yes - minutes. During an extreme weather event, what will happen?
In an emergency the primary focus isn't, for example, on powering offices, powering every single thing you can. The focus should be on powering homes for a relatively short duration at reduced consumption. The goal is survival, not keeping everything on the grid powered up 24/7. Two Powerwalls can power a home for two to three days at reduced energy consumption (rationing). There's no reason we can't get to that type of outcome as routine in the next 10-20 years, given the cost of homes today (nearing $400,000 median sale price) and the continual decline in battery costs (and that's assuming no great battery breakthroughs). There's no reason all new homes built in the US shouldn't come with the equivalent of at least three Powerwalls of energy storage 20 years out.
This gives the power consumer an energy cache, effectively, with 2-3 days of self-reliance.
That's why I suggested that your insistence that we need one stonking large battery sitting somewhere is misguided - we can distribute, today, relatively cheaply (compared to the cost of a house build / maintenance) short-term independence from the grid supply.
Compressed air storage is another option, that is quite cheap and scales extremely well. The one being built by Hydrostor now in California is 4GWh, for example [0].
Refs:
[0] https://newatlas.com/energy/hydrostor-compressed-air-energy-...
This energy consumption thus translates to an averaged power requirement of 4TW. Notably, while peaks are local, however nationally, extremes are not that higher than average. The average capacity factor is a third for renewables, so 12TW of nameplate renewable capacity is enough for the vast majority of the time - to power the entire nation's complete energy requirements through renewables.
Let's go with a 50-25-25 mix of solar-onshore-offshore wind. Thus solar nameplate needs to be 6TW, and both onshore and offshore wind needs to have 3TW nameplate capacity installed each. Solar PV generates 10W per square foot. That's 22,000 square miles. A lot of that can come from rooftop solar. Onshore wind turbines are 2.5MW each, which translates to 1.2 million turbines, while with the offshore turbine designs that this article shows - this is 200k turbines. The cost of such turbines (onshore+offshore) with installation would come to 9 trillion USD. Solar would cost a similar amount. Battery costs for storing 96TWh (a day's worth of energy consumption - averaged) would be 10 trillion dollars more.
Thus, building the nameplate capacity for the entire US to be powered by renewables is approximately 30 trillion dollars, where the GND price tag originated. However, all of these are at current solar/wind/storage prices. Each of those three is falling, and if the market becomes this big, economies of scale will drive costs down further.
That's actually not that outrageous. In reality you would probably want more battery capacity than that, but at the same time you'd probably have other forms of power generation too. Those other forms of power generation probably aren't going to be off when wind power isn't being produced, which means that they don't need to be covered by the battery capacity.
France's budget in 2021 was $755 billion.
Edit: I forgot about batteries wearing out. If they have to replace the batteries once a year then this would still be prohibitively expensive.
I heard a solar project is over-provisioning the battery and planning to replace it every 5 years as they must be able to deliver some amount of MWh 4 years down the road.
> You complete one charge cycle when you’ve used (discharged) an amount that equals 100% of your battery’s capacity — but not necessarily all from one charge. For instance, you might use 75% of your battery’s capacity one day, then recharge it fully overnight. If you use 25% the next day, you will have discharged a total of 100%, and the two days will add up to one charge cycle.
References:
Most cars have more than that as battery so when all car are electrified, put together and filled up they can power France for a day without any other generation source.
France peak demand is about 100 GW so that's 3.2 kW per car.
It's a tiny amount relative to the power of the motor.
It can flow through a nearly normal plug (16A 230V).
And this is for the worst day of the year.
A 50% capacity factor does not mean there's no wind 50% of the time. It only means that, averaged over a whole year, the power produced is 50% of the maximum the generator is rated to produce. This includes periods of time when there's wind, but wind that's not strong enough to reach the maximum output of the generator.
And the wind not being strong enough to reach the maximum output of the generator is probably the most common situation, since it makes sense to design the generator to reach its maximum output at the strongest normal wind on the region; when the wind is stronger than that maximum, the generator has to shut down (feather the blades and brake the rotor), otherwise it will get damaged.
Looking through may 2021 I see instances in which actual wind power delivered is zero.
https://www.aeso.ca/grid/forecasting/wind-and-solar-power-fo...
It may not be windy in some places, but chances are it will be windy in others.
Fossil fuel backups such as gas are not a bad interim solution, considering gas is less polluting than coal.
There are some problems with economics, as backup solutions cost money even when they are not being used.
Extreme prices in Alberta were recently caused by a lack of wind across the province. Turns out sometimes it isn’t windy anywhere! Similar can happen for sun. A big storm can move in and it is dark and cloudy and you get 10% of nameplate for 5 days.
I think ammonia production by solar power near deserts is going to be the missing link that provides the flexibility we need to keep the grid reliable on a cloudy windless day.
On a domestic level, countries like Germany have legislation that targets accelerating internal grid connections.
https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netzausbaubeschleunigungsges...
On a supranational level in Europe, the EU has targets to increase grid interconnections between countries.
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/infrastructure/electricit...
On an intergovernmental level, outside of the EU the UK is building an underwater cable to Denmark, to share hydro and wind energy.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/13/work-beg...
On https://www.electricitymap.org/map you can see the transfers between national (ish) grids, and that the transmission lines aren't idle. You can slide the map to North America, but the data is very incomplete.
The blades in the original article are 118m long so they would have a diameter of 236m, and according to your first link the "usual" spacing is 7x the diameter so they'd need to be at least 1.6km apart?
Not a small country.
So based on offshore capacity factors, an area of NYC will generate 500160.5 = 4000MW continuous power. NY state consumes approximately 200 TWh of power annually. Thus, this setup itself will contribute to 1/6th of the whole state's power consumption.
I exaggerated of course [1]. But you probably don't realize how huge half of New York city, or 444 sq. km is.
And the area is likely to larger because you will need additional infrastructure to handle all this and maintain the generators.
[1] There are 43 countries smaller than that: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=countries+smaller+than...
I specifically chose NYC, as it's one of the most densely populated areas, so its energy requirements are that much higher.
400 square kilometers is a huge area.
But sure. You "only" need one of those to match the output of a nuclear power plant. You "only" need to fully clear that area of all obstacles (including trees, for example), and provide that area with roads, access points, battery storage, power transformers...
Edit: take this report on area comparisons between nuclear, solar, and wind with a grain of salt. https://www.nei.org/news/2015/land-needs-for-wind-solar-dwar...
But even if they are 10x off, that's still enormous land requirements.
As if that makes problem go away.
Type Isle of Wight into Google Maps. Its area is 384 square kilometers. Then zoom out. And then zoom out again. You can still see it at a zoom level that encompasses all of Europe. That's the area you need to cover in these megaturbines.
And no, you can't just plop them down anywhere:
- they have to be sufficiently close to the shore (you can't expect power cables to be infinitely long, you need easy access for maintenance etc.)
- the seabed has to allow for construction: even if you don't embed it into the seabed, you at least have to anchor it. And you have to be able to lay down or anchor power cables.
- there has to be place on-shore for power infrastructure: from management to transformers to batteries, as you don't just dump megawatts of power directly into the grid
> when calculating areal requirements you should also calculate land needed for waste disposal.
I doubt any nuclear waste disposal takes up 400 square kilometres.
Singapore is building HVDC lines from Australia as we speak. We have been building underwater cables for a very long time (100+ years now) so it's pretty much a solved problem currently. Deep sea oil rigs have existed for decades at this point. Turbines in comparison are easier than oil rigs.
So tl:dr; we can absolutely plonk them down everywhere, and in fact we should.
Am I reading that right? A tower 242 meters tall (read: a 70-floor skyscraper), with moving 118 meter blades, and they're proposing anchoring it to a floating base!?
(I'm assuming that the article reported hub height and not the highest point of the rotor).
https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/floating-wind/how-hywi...
Hundred meter turbine just bobbing in the water like a cork.
I'm a subscriber so I don't know how soft the paywall is:
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/07/21/...
[1] https://www.stiesdal.com/offshore-technologies/the-tetraspar...
https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(18)30446-X
Their conclusion:
In agreement with observations and prior model-based analyses, US wind power will likely cause non-negligible climate impacts. While these impacts differ from the climate impacts of GHGs in many important respects, they should not be neglected. Wind's climate impacts are large compared with solar PVs. Similar studies are needed for offshore wind power, for other countries, and for other renewable technologies. There is no simple answer regarding the best renewable technology, but choices between renewable energy sources should be informed by systematic analysis of their generation potential and their environmental impacts.
Make of it what you will.
I remember reading an article in popular mechanics about them years ago (found it [1]) and it seemed like a superior turbine…
[1]: https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/gadgets/a246/128...
Efficiency in price per kwH is more important and big turbines have claimed their crown here. Given that stresses are behind size limits the strategy is clear here.
Vertical still only makes sense in limited space.
The horizontal turbines put the pole behind the blades. The pole does make a bow wave, but it is not as bad as the VAT wake. The pole/blade interaction is not as severe.
It's a "perfect is the enemy of good enough" thing. Better designs along one axis with a multi axis problem won't be best overall.
This had me really scratching my head for way too long, I laughed out loud when I realised my error.
“They are bolted down surely?”
Where it will land is still up in the air
Me: "Well, thats f**ing no good"
In the early days of California wind power, there were some Darrieus turbines at Pacheco Pass. They're probably gone now. In those days, 30KW was a big turbine.
The standard horizontal three-blade upwind turbine design seems to have been the one that scaled up the best; you can just keep making them larger and larger and they get more cost-effective.
Source: I worked for a micro generation helical VAWT startup for 5 years.
More info at http://www.myse.com.cn/en/jtxw/info.aspx?itemid=825
I can see why this would be - it has to be nontrivial to anchor an object of any size to the sea floor (not to mention maintenance and inspection) and doing that ten times at a large scales sounds easier than doing it hundreds of times at smaller scales.
No wonder these things keep getting bigger; the bigger they get, the better they seem to work, and the fewer expensive installation projects need to be undertaken to develop the same capacity
Three time bigger turbine sweeps 9 times larger area / volume of air, and gives 9 times more power
Faster winds are accessible higher up, and power that can be extracted from the wind goes up as velocity cubed (V3)
Having such widely varying conditions would seem to be very hard to optimise for - only one position along the blade can be at optimal conditions.
I would expect that there might exist another design of wind turbine not having this downside - perhaps with a linearly moving blade.
The bigger problem is that going offshore is expensive. On the other hand, shipping by sea should be easier than land :)
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_powerful_wind_tur...
Sorted by "Power rating (MW)", the top three are:
* Vesta V236 (15)
* Siemens Gamesa SG 14-222 DD (14)
* GE Wind Energy Haliade-X (13)
MingYang has a MySE 11-203 at 11: currently listed as "Concept" like the top two, above.
That's 45 percent more than the company's MySE 11.0-203, from just a 19 percent increase in diameter.
So I think that their point is that the energy output goes up more (45%) than the diameter (19%), i.e. it's not linear, which is what "proportionality" [1] seems to mean.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportionality_(mathematics)
1.19 * 1.19 = 1.4161
That's still 4% unaccounted for, so there are some efficiency gains there.
The question then becomes how building materials and energy required to build one of these scales with size. If that is linearly with blade diameter/turbine height, then yes, the efficiency increases quickly the larger you build them.
And the cost savings are likely less about building materials which likely scale at more than quadratic pace with height, but about labour and maintenance. Each trip out to an offshore base is costly, fewer trips made both for building and for maintenance saves a lot of money.
The other main reason to get bigger that‘s not even discussed is increased capacity factor. That doesn‘t have to do with efficiency, but with effectiveness, as the turbine will simply run more days of the year.
I have no idea what current numbers are, but I expect long term most factories will be inland and produce wind turbines of a size that is limited by local transport roads/laws. At sea might be better, but one factory can produce windmills for any ocean in the world. Inland shipping is far more expensive and so we need more factories scattered around.
If your country is near the sea then off-shore wind is best. However a lot of land isn't close enough to the sea to make off-shore practical and so they need a different option.
https://www.theverge.com/22296979/us-offshore-ships-wind-boo...
New Details on First Jones Act-Compliant Wind Turbine Installation Vessel:
https://gcaptain.com/new-details-on-first-jones-act-complian...
U.S. Customs and Border Protection Expressly Applies Jones Act to Offshore Wind Projects in U.S. Waters:
https://gcaptain.com/u-s-customs-and-border-protection-expre...
Large scale composites are still largely manual labour, and there are few pieces of tooling which themselves need to be one big piece. Mould can be split into sections rather easily.
Most wind farms (on shore) are in fields that the farmer has planted. you want to disturb the crop as little as possible while installing which means the factory will be elsewhere so that you don't need to tear up more crop in manufacturing.
[1] https://reneweconomy.com.au/dispelling-the-nuclear-baseload-...
May be it should be added that of course renewables can be dispatchable if not all of their available capacity is used all the time. The typical gas peaker plans are idle 90% of the time. But people complain less about that, as gas plans consume gas to run, while e.g. solar cells don't have any additional costs for producing electricity vs. not producing electricity. So it seems like a waste to not operate them at full capacity. Yet, the situation isn't that different from a gas plant idling most of the time.
Annectodal, the French grid is mostly nuclear and they of course face the problems with running a varying grid load with "base load" power plants. The solution is, to run their nuclear power plants at an average of 75% of their full power, this gives them more ability to regulate the output, but of course it means, that the cost per energy produced raises, as they usually are not fully utilized. Which probably is the reason, why France is exporting a lot of electricity - with the European grid it is cheaper to have a varying export than a variable production.
Here is an interesting article about this: https://www.power-technology.com/features/how-norway-became-...
The Continental European grid covers 400 million people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continenta...
That can still be fine as the cost of renewables keeps falling, but complainig about capacity factor of nuclear in this context is laughable
>First, the fluctuations in variable wind and solar PV are balanced by flexible renewable energy sources that are dispatchable, i.e. can supply power on demand. These are hydro with dams, Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) and concentrated solar thermal power (CST) with thermal storage, as illustrated in Figure 2. It ‘s not essential for every power station in the system to be dispatchable.
Gas turbines are flexible renewable energy? Concentrated solar power is a fringe technology that is highly dependent on geography. How this is taken seriously i do not understand.
The article goes on to make a rubbish point about "green" gas while completely ignoring that gas in any form is neither "Green" nor renewable.
>In the USA a major computer simulation by a large team of scientists and engineers found that 80-90% renewable electricity is technically feasible and reliable (They didn’t examine 100%.)
Gee, i wonder why 100% wasn't examined. Perhaps it points to an uncomfortable conclusion that solely variable, renewable energy cannot work at scale as the sole source of energy for gigawatt scale grids. The reality is that a combination is required and this reality upsets those who believe the pie-in-the-sky dream that solar and wind can power the entire grid if you only overbuild and dispatch them.
As the February event in Texas demonstrated, all generation can underperform at the same time leading to near disaster. We would be wise to hedge our bets on generation sources.
Depends what gas you burn and how it was generated, but yeah as long as the source isnt adding fossil carbon to the air then they're part of the solution.
In fact, after reading the article, the next paragraph after your quote says exactly that:
> Incidentally the gas turbines can themselves be fuelled by ‘green gas’, for example from composting municipal and agricultural wastes, or produced from surpluses of renewable electricity. More on this below …
The "more on this below" refers to later parts of the article that cover making syngas from water using electricity supplied by wind power
you can turn on a nuclear reactor anytime you want, but not a solar panel/wind turbine. that is what baseload is about.
The base load is nothing especial, only the fraction of the maximum load of the grid, that is always drawn and can be served by power plants which cannot be regulated well. Which most of the time of the day is a big disadvantage of those power plants. If there is a demand peak, they can't serve it. If their overall output is too high, you cannot turn it down quickly enough. As coal and nuclear power traditionally had a large part of the supply and both are quite slow, for decades the net was designed to raise the "base load". Like in Belgium, where all highways were illuminated at night to consume excess nuclear energy...
The good news about wind and solar is, they can be switched off quickly at any time. Their disadvantage is, and that probably is, when you talk about base load, that the maxim power output depends on the weather. With a coal plant, you can put more coals into the fire, with solar, you need to wait for sunrise. That is indeed a challenge and requires storage and grid planning to compensate. Larger scale grids which mix wind and solar are much less affected by the. But nothing of this has to do with the base load.
And with nuclear: yes, wind should beat nuclear easily in the aspects of cost and CO2. But the most important metric is: the cost of building new nuclear plants is prohibitive. Just compare the costs of the most recent English nuclear plant with new wind installations. They are about 1/3rd of the cost and not have any of the problems of nuclear energy attached (operation risk, nuclear waste).
Also regarding CO2 cost, nuclear vs wind is certainly not clear cut. This [1] reference says wind is somewhat worse than European nuclear but better than US nuclear. It's also worth pointing out that lifecycle CO2 analysis of Nuclear often consider only ~50 years of nuclear waste storage [2], which is somewhat misleading considering that we have to store some of the waste for thousands of years.
[1] https://escholarship.org/content/qt5fw407kf/qt5fw407kf_noSpl... [2] https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/energy-and-the...
No it is not without a balanced power grid.
- intermittent
- expensive (more than solar)
- look bad (worst of all energy sources)
- no plausible route for it getting a significant fraction of the energy mix (nuclear or solar+batteries do)
I mean having some wind seems cool for some situations, but I just can't get excited about it.
It has a good location for wind, which many countries couldn't match, but it clearly an effective source in this case.
And I personally think that most of them do look good. I am fond of technology and wind turbines are especially elegant and spectacular looking. I can see that too many of them can be seen negatively. Solar cells can be hidden better.
Some data to explore:
https://transparency.entsoe.eu/generation/r2/actualGeneratio...
Unfortunately, some interesting countries (e.g. Sweden, Germany,...) are missing. I am wondering how electricitymap.org gets their data from there for those countries? But there are also other sources, e.g.:
https://www.windjournal.de/erneuerbare-energie/aktuelle_eins...
Nuclear is cheap when not operated in a hostile regulatory environment and built at scale, even while setting aside tens of billions for decommissioning and waste management.
They're sort of in a sweet spot right now financially but once their plants start aging out - which is soon - the costs will jump a lot if they try to extend their life or build brand new plants.
The best time to go zero carbon with nuclear was 50 years ago. The second best time is never.
This makes no sence, and if wealthy countries of this world actually got their head out of their collective asses and built a system like the french one, we would avoid climate change almost entirely - france emits 3 or 4 times less per persom than the US does
But the most important thing is the opportunity cost - a typical nuclear power plant takes 7 years to complete.
For this reason in terms of GWh delivered in China, wind overtook nuclear in 2012 or so and the gap has been widening ever since.
The new Flamanville project is plagued by budget and time overruns.
Nearly 6 times over-budget and yet to provide a watt nearly 10 years after its initially projected completion date. Most recent cost estimates are for over 19B euro - $22B. This buys you a single 1.6GW reactor.[1]
The same amount of money would buy 20GW of onshore wind. Even adjusting for capacity factors - about 70% for French nuclear, about 40% for well positioned modern turbines - the cost per MWh is about 7 times higher for nuclear.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan...
Intermittency is a problem for all generation types - they just have different modes. The average nuclear reactor in the US, for example, spends about 10% of it's time off-line, coal generation is even worse - about 15% unavailable with 10% unscheduled. So you still need backup idling capacity for thermal generation. Particularly nuclear requires a great deal of complimentary dispatchable sources given you need to be able to match demand which can have a daily peak 2 or 3 times higher than trough and nuclear reactors can take a day or more to vary their output.
No comment on the looks - to me they aren't ugly.
There is a plausible route for wind - at least to get to 70% or so supply. There are a few countries in Europe already over the 35% mark for wind and grid engineers seem confident that much more can added with current tech.
Wind complements solar as their output is generally not correlated - combining both reduces the overall output variance.
Wind has higher capacity factor than solar[2]. In more northern latitudes solar capacity factor can be as low as 10%. While in some places on-shore wind capacity factors can be higher than 40%. 1GW of installed capacity wind will, on average, provide 40% more electricity than 1GW of solar based on the US Energy Information Agency figures.
[1] https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2020
[2] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar-are-30-50-cheaper...
It scales "vertically" (bigger turbines!) while solar scales horizontally (more roofs).