Read the last century of history of Afghanistan and it becomes clear that the war was lost before it ever began. It was not just the Soviets before America that failed to reform the ways of rural Afghanis. The Soviets came into Afghanistan in large part because the Afghani PDPA was also failing to do the same. Before the PDPA took power from Daoud in the Saur Revolution, Daoud was himself trying and failing to impose progressive reform on the same people. And preceding Daoud was Mohammed Zahir Shah, also a progressive reformer, who failed to make much of any lasting impact despite forty years of good effort. Zahir came to power after his father, Nadir Shah was assassinated; Nadir Shah had himself acquired power in the first place by putting down a rebellion of Afghani tribesmen, but obviously that had no lasting impact either. And that rebellion was itself precipitated by Amanullah Khan's failed efforts to reform Afghanistan.

The arrogance of Americans to think their invasion would succeed where previous invasions and native reformers had failed is staggering. Even if America were to fight for reform for forty years, as Zahir Shah did, why should anybody believe it would make a lasting difference? 20 years made no lasting difference, and another 20 wouldn't either. You can suppress afghani tribesmen, you can send their children to universities and crush those who openly oppose you, but as soon as you leave (and you will eventually leave) they will go right back to the way they prefer to live. This has been demonstrated again and again.