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> This unredacted graf shows that telcos get up to 25% of Google's app sales to keep them from developing rival app stores on the smartphones they sell and service.
Insane reading.
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> This unredacted graf shows that telcos get up to 25% of Google's app sales to keep them from developing rival app stores on the smartphones they sell and service.
Insane reading.
Google also pays Apple 7 billion annually^ to be its default SE. Despite Adwords' incredible profitability, Yahoo & MSFT's experience as 2nd place in that market was working very hard and earning $0 profits... Their Revenues @ were far lower than proportional to their market share, and costs are the opposite. Better to just take your share of monopoly profits than work hard competing, unless you expect to win their place.
This stuff is the norm. Maybe we should switch to being surprised (delighted?) when these guys compete at all.
^https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/06/08/apple-c...
It's actually between $8-12 billion now. [1]
> Yahoo & MSFT's experience as 2nd place in that market was working very hard and earning $0 profits.
This is an exaggeration though. MSFT made nearly $8 billion in revenue last year from search (mostly Bing), and the business has naturally high margins so it would be extremely surprising if it was unprofitable on an operating basis. [2] The reality is that search is so huge that it's worth competing in, even if the incumbent has 30X your market share.
[1] https://twitter.com/jowens510/status/1428416856038072321
$8bn in revenue might not mean profitable. Google certainly spend a lot more than this on search and advertising, and well... software scales.
In any case, whether they make $1bn in profit, losses or something in between... This is <1% of market profits. Apple is making $8bn-$12bn, all profit, just on defaults.
We don’t know if Bing’s profitable but GP is merely saying that with the circumstances above it is an interesting market for Microsoft to pursue.
Cooperating and accepting a slice of Google's monopoly profits is far more profitable that competing would be, in all but the most bullish scenarios.
IE, MSFT would need to be outright challenging Google's 1st place position in search marketing to have a hope of earning more than Apple do by doing nothing, spending nothing, investing nothing and taking no risks.
Also, what would it take for MSFT to compete with Google in earnest? For one thing, Microsoft would need to outbid Google for such deals. They'd need to pay Apple, Telcos, and such more than Google do now.
Apple did none of those things with respect to launching a search engine. Apple did all of those things with respect to building an audience of daily engaged (often affluent) users. That’s the investment Apple made to earn the position to cash Google’s check.
Apple started to ship this operation over to India 5ish years ago, and their contractors over there produce much worse results as they are not hiring professional geographers with degrees like they did stateside.
It doesn't really help OSM that its home page is considered just an example of what can be done with the data and not positioning it as an alternative to Google/Bing Maps is somewhat intentional.
I love answering questions on Maps and providing information for others (in my eyes: effectively working for them, not Google). Google Maps seems like it has a significantly larger user base, so my contributions help significantly more people.
It's very much a help-and-be-helped community, too. I can ask questions about businesses and have answers from other people in just a couple minutes. I don't imagine I'd have the same quality/speed asking questions on OSM (if they even have that feature?).
I personally can’t see them switching any time soon, as DuckDuckGo’s search results are something between worse to terrible and I’m not sure they can do much better without collecting more data.
I would like someone to make some objective research on that.
My experience is the reverse, so I strongly suspect our reticence is just one of changing our habit more than an real thing.
I switched to DDG years ago and it took a few weeks to wean out the tendency to compare searches, usually brought on by the fear of missing out something.
I very rarely have to resort to a !g search and usually if I can't find it on DDG, I won't easily find it on google either.
I don't feel like missing out on anything and I always find what I need (and if I don't, I can't find it in other searches either).
Other platforms have some strength in some area, like Bing and Google have more tools for image searches, and it's possible that one of these is better than the others at some specific domain, like research papers or patent searches.
But after switching to DDG, all these options are still available and -at least in my case- 99%+ of my needs are met with it.
Still, no matter how much I like and promote DDG, I'm definitely not in the 'I always find what I need' camp. I don't know why but DDG is simply bad in some aspects. Sometimes it can be circumvented by altering search terms, but other times I have the impression after all those years its crawling or database is still lacking. I encounter this almost daily, most recent example: searching for 'preamp for hypex' Google and Bing (in private search windows) immediately turn up posts from audio forums I expect to have these topics. DDG just doesn't have those probably, because instead it automatically "Includes results for amplifier hypex" (which I find extremely annoying in any case, and makes no sense in this case since the word 'preamp' is key) and after forcing it to quote each term instead then it still doesn't come up with the expected results.
This means at least about half the time I end up with a !g I'm my DDG search.
I don't think bing will be a useful competitor in the long term, but a company that focuses on non-English national/linguistic markets, especially those with own character sets can compete in that area, innovate and hopefully also branch out on the EN market (see Yandex - RU; Yahoo - JP; various CN players).
It's scary how the web feels much more narrower.
BTW I wish any stackexchange sites are under single domain.
But the reverse is true too. DDG is now my default, but before, when Google didn't find something, I'd switch to DDG.
There is an implicit learning curve switching search engines. The way one crafts searches differs in subtle ways I don't understand on a conscious level.
Last I checked, DDG's search results are just Bing (aside from the infobox-type stuff which is from their own data sources), and Bing does collect data from Microsoft's browsers and toolbars https://www.wired.com/2011/02/bing-copies-google/
I think this is closer to a 50B problem than a 1B problem. Not impossible, but I don’t know anyone who has 50B that they would want to spend fighting uphill to kill google.
Say, you manage to recruit the top-30 engineers who know all the in-and-outs of the google search engine. Add to that, their recent replacement of trad AI methods with full NN I believe, and I can't realistically believe it's not more than a 1B problem.
One of the reasons Google is going horizontal because their search engine can't be "magical" forever, this applies to their ad platform too.
Nobody else has this, and until they do, they won't be able to recreate Google.
You do NOT get added benefit from big data by taking it from millions to hundreds of billions. It becomes just a lesson in scale, without bringing any added benefit of insight.
You can see that yourself with Google by searching for something obscure (eg. "how to unblock a drain jammed with cat fur") and getting three friends to click the 2nd search result. Come back in a week, and suddenly the 2nd result is now the first result! (ignore the videos and answer box)
It turns out just three new data points is enough to influence ranking for that query. It even affected related queries if you change the word "jammed" for "gunked".
* how many people worldwide keep their google places information up-to-date and not their local government office or their website.
* how advertisers can get value for their search ad campaigns; how to convince them of this
* how much google ad/targeting intelligence comes from off-site (eg Adsense, partner programs, xml ads)
* how many websites and website owners focus obsessively on their google presence making sure that even where Google’s tech gets it wrong they can get it corrected.
* how valuable the feedback loop is: google ads literally tells google what pages and terms are useful, what people like, and what to do more of at scale
* giving away free email and chat to build a whitelist of “good shares”
And that doesn’t cover video or the inverted index you need to provide governments access to emails and search terms. And so on.
These are largely not-software problems.
Hell they can even throw a spin on how it's about "privacy" and not about taking another way to bank on their walled garden monopoly and the Apple crowd here will gobble it up with "we are finally free from Google spying, praise Tim and his holy father Steve in heaven".
I've been arguing app stores are a monopoly for years now and the amount of cultist here that were like "Apple is doing it to protect me from bad software" and "I would not use my iPhone if there was an option to install a different store" was staggering.
Apple's shareholders won't.
They'll want to know where their 10bn (ish) USD went that Apple currently gets from Google.
Is Apple going to increase their device sales substantially because of an Apple search engine? I think everyone who is going to buy Apple has bought Apple, so I think not.
On the other hand, if Apple sells ads on Apple search, and they charge the same fees Google does, they'll still need 50bn in turnover to drop Google; Advertisers aren't going to double their marketing budget, they'll split it based on the ROI, and unless Apple ads convert as good or better than Google, this is a net loss.
Google is valued like "real estate", it's the best address. And then you need the advertising network for it be worthwhile.
Apple, like Microsoft, can replace google as the default search, but that alone is not a big chunk of the market. It might not be worthwhile.
Otherwise, of course it can be done, and for even less than that.
Buying a default spot is the interesting aspect here. Google spending more than Bing's entire yearly revenue just means they want that thing, and tells you their relative wealth. I figure this applies just as well to corporations as it does to individuals: if you're going to look askance at Jeff Bezos etc. you may as well keep an eye on businesses with similar disparities of scale relative to their market sector. Not like we haven't seen all this before.
https://www.google.com/search?q=People+of+the+same+trade+sel...
It's a very well-known quote. IMHO the language and phrasing are too archaic to come across as an opinion, even to someone it isn't well-known to. The curious will google (though it doesn't hurt for you to add attribution).
I hope you'll appreciate that my reply was helpful and charitable - though it too seems to have missed the mark!
I don't think this analyst is aware that DDG already has a lot of Google influence and isn't for sale right now...
> Every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, is declared to be illegal.
> Every person who shall make any contract or engage in any combination or conspiracy hereby declared to be illegal shall be deemed guilty of a felony, and, on conviction thereof, shall be punished by fine not exceeding $100,000,000 if a corporation, or, if any other person, $1,000,000, or by imprisonment not exceeding 10 years, or by both said punishments, in the discretion of the court.
A few years in federal prison for the CEOs of Apple and Google might change the situation.
> Jail sentences have also traditionally been lenient. For example, from 1890 to 1970, only nineteen individuals actually went to jail for pure antitrust violations for a total of 28 months. Thus, during the first 80 years of the Sherman Act, the average jail sentence was approximately 1.5 months.
https://lawecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2020...
They're literally a cartel.
Why the hell does Apple have a film studio? Why does Google have a game studio and cloud? If they keep going, they'll be the MGM and Whole Foods too. (Oh, wait!)
Famgopolies also shouldn't be allowed to dictate their payments stacks, software distribution systems, app approval processes, browsers, or monitoring. Especially not if they're going after every single possible market, snuffing out all of the oxygen in the ecosystem.
If a famgopoly does over 100 things, it shouldn't be allowed to keep growing like the blob.
I really don't want my startup to be a gazelle at the savannah, waiting for the lions to bite at the jugular because they like my idea and market. If I put so much on the line to innovate, only to have these titans duplicate and crush me, what's the point?
I never thought I'd ever cheer for patent suits given all of the trolls, but I was genuinely happy that Sonos won over Google recently. We need more of that.
Edit: incoming famgopoly downvote brigade.
Famgopoly is just a play on words to describe these never before seen emergent phenomena. You're right - they're not monopolies. They're something new the world has never seen before.
Famgopolies.
Most anti-trust actions have nothing to do with monopolies.
ok that's fine
Personally, and I know that this is a very controversial opinion, I believe that the biggest problem is the concept of advertising itself - an attempt to distort consumer behavior, whose natural endpoint was always what we're seeing today: massive data collection, use in politics, manipulation on all available channels.
Cancer is completely natural, too.
At some point you have to examine whose interests you wish to serve, and why. Nothing new about that.
Doesn't absolve them of terrible business practices, just shows that they caught up with them pretty fast.
We're verging or even past 2 decades.
If someone can trace that directly to pricing ... well price collusion is definitely illegal.
Hard to believe, but Google Play (nee Android Market) was pretty damn shabby until about 2013 or so.
With those powers behind her she can do some harm, otherwise I'm afraid she'll be just a sitting duck in front of FANG's lobbyists.
Here’s an FTC commissioner explaining the history of it and why we should probably change it. https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_statements...
Even the judge in the case said that Microsoft executives had "proved, time and time again, to be inaccurate, misleading, evasive, and transparently false. ... Microsoft is a company with an institutional disdain for both the truth and for rules of law that lesser entities must respect. It is also a company whose senior management is not averse to offering specious testimony to support spurious defenses to claims of its wrongdoing." [1]
This new situation may be a slam-dunk, but no dunking may actually happen.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Microsoft_Cor...
This was Judge Jackson, who had his decision overturned by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. Also "the appeals court judges accused him of unethical conduct." A lot of grandiose things were said by people during these trials, many looking to enrich their careers.
Absolutely they were, that's what it means that most of Judge Jackson's ruling was overturned, and a new judge was appointed to determine penalties. Jackson wanted to break Microsoft apart and slap them with operating restrictions.
Where is it said that, "most of Judge Jackson's ruling was overturned"?
If you are referring to the link I posted, the actual words were, "The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals overturned Judge Jackson's rulings against Microsoft."
Then, just five sentences later it says, "However, the appeals court did not overturn the findings of fact."
https://www.nytimes.com/2001/06/28/business/us-appeals-court...
"In a 125-page unanimous ruling brimming with palpable derision and frustration, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit nullified all three parts of Judge Jackson's ruling in the case and removed the restrictions he placed on the company's business practices, even as it made reference to many of his conclusions."
For a long time Google was the Apple maps provider (exclusive) on Apple - they had near seamless integration there and in a variety of areas (search etc) - very much acting as one company.
They competed in other areas (google photos on iphone has always been very much second class), google music has struggled vs the apple music player etc.
All these monster players - they are so big that if they were fighting each other on every front it would be a huge mess.
Apple both bitterly competes against Samsung (who copies plenty from iphone) while simultaneously working as a big customer to them.
AWS has the same issues in many area - they will do things like cooperate in some areas with enemies (ie, they'll host Microsoft workloads and MS will facilitate) while competing in other areas (AWS vs Azure etc).
The capital scale of these solutions has gotten very to extremely high. That reduces incentives to compete in these spaces.
Apple doesn't particularly care to run a search platform because they can extract much of the value of search in allowing others to serve that market (ie, microsoft or google). Ie, these become high profit plays while letting someone else do hard lifting. I'd expect however they would fight like hell if you tried to take away their relationship with their customer.
Even in places they compete - not 100% sure it's worth it. They are fighting it out in maps at huge expense. You need to deliver a global map to your traveling customer base that is amazing (transit, traffic, local POI etc). This is not a small project. Then you have to monetize it. If you told me a smaller handset provider was going to launch a mapping solution - I'd tell you they are crazy!
That drives cooperation especially if a solution is a high capital requirement. Even intel is probably going to cooperate with TSMC (!!!). Some of these capital efforts are kind of insane - 30 billion per year capex type stuff. How many countries have CAPEX expenditures in this scale (ie, not just on operating costs / staff salaries?). These business are larger than countries in some cases.
Android / Samsung absolutely are competing (and copying) Apple in handset space. Ironically they will first denounce apple (not shipping chargers!). That's ALMOST always a guarantee that they will then copy them next cycle :)! I'm not kidding. I'd love to go back and look at everything from an all screen design (bad email machine), to dropping 3.5m jack (which I hated to see happen) to dropping chargers etc.
They even had quotes that showed intent and understanding of the illegality:
> "Schmidt responded that he preferred it be shared 'verbally, since I don't want to create a paper trail over which we can be sued later?'", the Reuters news agency quoted the court filing as saying.
https://www.reuters.com/article/apple-google-settlement-idIN...
This is why Epic is suing them, to have a judge prohibit Google from illegally anticompetitive behavior.