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Comment by smhinsey | Hacker News Reader

As someone who lives nearby part of the year, I really think this story has taken on a life of its own. It's true that there is some gross algae in the South Fork Merced but from all of the public info, they didn't even make it that far. If you look at where they started and where they were recovered, you'll see that in between is a fully exposed descent down a series of switchbacks. It was extremely hot that day. They probably died of heat exhaustion. It's unusual for it to get the dog too, but if they didn't have water for themselves, they probably didn't for the dog. It's not hard to imagine getting to the bottom and realizing you're in serious trouble.

This family closely mirrors mine, so I've followed the story closely, and it seems like they just made a grievous error in judgment in an area they weren't familiar with.

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it seems highly unlikely the mother, father, and dog all died of heat exhaustion at the same time, unless the dog died/passed out and they were carrying it. Even then, I would have suspected the mother/daughter taking cover and the dad going ahead.

Incredibly rare. Huge numbers of people hike the PCT in the desert every year, and some years 1 or 2 people die of heat exhaustion. It's never big groups of people at the same time. Same with heat-related deaths at Grand Canyon, Death Valley etc.

The article says that they were avid hikers. I’m not familiar with the area, but carrying plenty of water seems like a relatively fundamental bit of prep. Am I missing something?

actually, the most avid hikers i know usually are overconfident, and underestimate their water needs. I always carry excess water, even after years on the trail, and always have to give some to my even more well traveled companions.

Back when I flew gliders, every educated pilot knew that the intermediate (aka "avid") pilots killed themselves the most. This is well established statistically. Overconfidence, complaisance with risk, etc.

Normalization of Deviance

"… [Y]ou could make it to a high level of expertise but then succumb to the complacency fed by your successful experiences, you could be beaten by the ever-present need to accomplish objectives (save time, save money, achieve schedules), or you might rebel against unrealistic SOPs and burdensome regulations.

Either way, you are living on borrowed time. Fortunately, you can change things."

http://www.aviationchief.com/normalization-of-deviance.html

Bingo, great read. Thanks for linking!

Good article, thanks.

I just listened to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6wuzm8p16M - The Rangers deployed to find Marcus Luttrell | Tony Brooks, Ranger | Ep. 107

Tony says Rangers are notorious for going out on missions without a safe amount of water or food. He said they nearly took casualties on that rescue mission due to dehydration, and that if he did it again he'd take less ammo and more water.

Also, see Aaron Ralston, the guy who disappeared for a week because he got his arm stuck under a rock in a slot canyon. He says his biggest mistake was not going out alone, but rather neglecting to tell anyone else about his plans and schedule. This kind of thing is super common among experienced outdoorsmen and women.

Something about there being old pilots and bold pilots, but very few old, bold pilots.

same for cave divers.

There's a book about this problem:

https://www.amazon.com/Killing-Zone-Second-How-Pilots/dp/007...

The avid hikers I knew in SoCal and WA never made this mistake. They always knew how much to bring, usually bringing extra and dumping out what they didn't need at halfway. In SoCal I brought 2 liters minimum. You must have a different definition of "avid."

The most avid hikers I know don't bother carrying an emergency beacon, either :(

Emergency beacons are overkill for hiking and camping. But they're mandatory for backcountry skiing IMO, where there's a significant risk of an accident that makes you invisible from the surface, e.g., by avalanche, or falling into a tree well:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_well

The number of stories I’ve read about people getting rescued tells me that the beacons are not overkill.

Activating you beacon while buried under snow seems very difficult if not impossoble.

I don't think you understand how beacons work. Avalanche beacons have a maximum range of around 60 meters. And you don't activate a beacon after an accident, you turn it on at the start of your run, or preferably at the start of the day. They only help us if we have a general idea of where someone might be buried, and even if we have a strong signal, we're still usually using our poles to actually find the person.

If we're talking about hiking and trekking, then we're talking about PLB's with satellite com. PLBs cost hundreds of dollars, and they must be registered with the SARSAT database. I personally don't know anyone who uses one for hiking or mountaineering. Do you?

I hike solo and carry one. Was about 200, registering online takes five minutes.

Another solo hiker & backpacker here; I have a Garmin inreach and they're fairly common among solo backpackers that I know.

I use a Mammut Barryvox avy beacon and a Garmin Inreach. Each for a different purpose, of course. They both cost hundreds of dollars.

I looked at those Garmins a while back. How do you feel about the size and weight?

Inreach Mini is totally worth the weight, not just for SOS but texting people (2-way) or getting weather reports. I've used it just for meeting up with people who also had Inreaches in places with spotty reception (many climbing areas). On a big climbs you can send check in messages to people at home.

Ah, I was looking at the full size ones. How's the Mini's battery life?

From my perspective, it's not someone else's responsibility to risk their lives and come rescue me as a hiker if I fuck up.

Do not rescue.

Good point!

Absolutely this also I went kayaking with some professionals that had some major accomplishments, like ocean crossings. I was the only one to take an extra paddle they all made fun of me for it guess who saved the day when we needed an extra paddle 4 days from civilization.

Safety tip: carry plenty of water and a personal locator beacon. You have to pay for the hardware and register it, but afterwards it's free and is a reliable way to summon emergency services from anywhere. It sends an emergency signal received by satellites and rescuers will be alerted of the location of the signal.

How is this not higher?

Unless you are in the middle of a desert, not bringing gallons of bottled water is OK. Water from some natural sources is safe for drinking (knowing which kind is important here); being able to boil water makes things even better. On the other hand, I myself have made day-long trips without consuming any water at all; looks like it is not far from truth that one can easily survive without water for a few days. (I would also note that to me it seems that for some people who I observed constant drinking water is more of a bad habit than a necessity.)

People make mistakes.

I used to be an avid hiker, on one trip I got to the trailhead and realized I had forgotten to fill the water bottles. I usually took 2 or 3 liters, but there was only half a liter in one of the bottles from the previous hike. It was really hot that day. I went on the hike anyway. I almost died.

Wouldn’t it have been obvious that they had no water with them? Did I miss that detail somewhere?

Grew up in northern California. What is suspicious was the death of the dog. The dog can live 2-3 days without water - and most likely would have found some. (They smell water).

Maybe they just had the dog on leash so it wouldn't run off.

I am not familiar with that area, but when hiking, I try to map out natural springs.

You won't need them going in, but it's coming back. I once went through a gallon of water on a hot day, and that spring I found earlier saved me.

(I haven't been on a long hike since that day though.)

I hope you bring purification equipment too. Giardia blows.

Better than being dead.

“ Symptoms usually begin 1 to 3 weeks after exposure”

Water now will let you get to treatment next week.

I second this; a couple of years back I went hiking with a buddy, we had water but planned for a day hike that extended overnight, and we had to drink water from some streams. While I worried about illness, having water then meant we were able to get back to civilization, where if we got sick we could seek medical attention.

Purify when you can, absolutely - but if you have to choose between a stream and a spring, take the spring. Not guaranteed to be safe, but if it's popping up out of the ground, it's more likely to be safe than flowing surface water. Also, always consider what's up-stream.

This is counterintuitive to what I've learned about sediment filtration — any insight for a layperson?

The hazard of which is greatly overstated. You are probably fine drinking the vast majority of alpine springs if there aren't livestock grazing nearby. I rarely bring purification and I've never gotten sick.

If it was an ascent rather than a descent that seems more likely, since they'd be exerting far more.

It just seems really weird for all three of them to die pretty much at the same time. (the baby of course could have died hours later of exposure)

I'm still betting on some kind of toxin.

Really tragic, they seemed like a really happy family.

You’d be surprised how much of an effort it takes to safely descend a steep slope with poor traffic. Definitely harder going up but if you check it out on google earth you can get an idea of the grade.

Yes but there is still the fact that they all died together. The initial autopsy didn't provide clues (which they would be looking for heatstroke which has a particular signature)

They seem too well-educated to not be aware of toxic algae (very common throughout northern CA), and would know to not drink the water -- and certainly not give it to the child. Dogs do often tragically die every summer from drinking from streams, though. Similarly, it's odd for a responsible couple with a child and dog to not know to bring water, etc.

Heat or alage aren't impossible, but it sure does seem odd.

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