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The thing is, 1 million is a pretty cheap price to sell your integrity. If you do get caught, you got caught over a relatively small sum. Once you've gotten your hands dirty, why not go all in? Why not go for James Bond villain money?

That's not rational, of course, but humans aren't rational.

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You don't always have that option, rarely does someone say "Hey, I have a plan to steal unlimited amounts of money, do you think we should steal $1M or $100M"

Besides, unless you're already wealthy it's harder to hide the theft of huge sums of money.

It is rational if the punishment for insider trading stays relatively constant but the benefit increases with money traded - which it probably does.

pretty sure they claw it all back, then fine you, then you pay your lawyers, then they maybe throw you in jail.

> then they maybe throw you in jail.

If you are very rich they dont throw you in jail.

You forgot the (non-linear) increased risk of getting caught with each iteration.

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