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Even if it was linear, you can’t tell the slope of a line from one measurement, and an interview is one measurement. You’d need two interviews separated by some time, which is obviously impractical.

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And even if you could, once interviewees know you're doing this, they could easily game it by intentionally bombing the first interview.

> You’d need two interviews separated by some time, which is obviously impractical.

My experience with multi-round interviews being stretched across multiple weeks strongly suggests otherwise.

Further, this is kind of the whole point of a probationary period, no?

My feeling is that multi-round interviews and probationary periods are less about getting a more precise view of a workers growth, and more about being extremely risk adverse in hiring.

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