Statement from Commander, U.S. Central Command, Gen Frank McKenzie

General Frank McKenzie issued a statement[1] on August 17. Among other things, he said:

> In meetings with Taliban senior leaders in Doha on Sunday, I cautioned them against interference in our evacuation, and made it clear to them that any attack would be met with overwhelming force in the defense of our forces.

Without any further analysis, note:

1. The use of the ambiguous phrase "interference in our evacuation". Would executing people as they try to make their way to the airport be an example of such "interference"?

2. The use of the ambiguous phrase "our evacuation"? Who is included in that "our"?

3. The use of the ambiguous phrase "in the defense of our forces". Since no one who is trying to leave the country is a member of "our forces", this explicitly precludes use of overwhelming force in defense of innocents. It seems it's OK for the Taliban to prevent other Afghans, expats, journalists, interpreters, NGO workers and the like from reaching the airport so long as they do not look sideways at American forces.

The concluding statement is similarly devoid of any hint that the U.S. forces may actively interfere in any Taliban action:

> To that end, we are prepared to fully support U.S. Embassy efforts to process and evacuate U.S. citizens, partners, special visa applicants, and Afghans at risk.

Note the insertion of "fully support U.S. Embassy efforts to process and evacuate". So, U.S. military may interfere if someone takes a potshot at the barracks in which U.S. Embassy personnel are cowering while they process paperwork, but they do not have any intention to do anything on behalf of the people who may not be able to get to the airport or the people who made it to the airport but do not fit in one of the preferred classes of people.

Those are the main signals in the statement that the U.S. is winking in the direction of the Taliban that they are not asking for much. Just let us do something here and call it a success and we'll be out of your hair seems to be the underlying tone.

Now, is it actually feasible for the U.S. military to hit back with "overwhelming force"?

The answer to that is a solid "NO!"

To hit back with "overwhelming force", they need to figure out what they are going hit.

At the airport, there are an unknown number of civilians, both Afghans and nationals of other countries. There are also various military teams from a number of countries including Turkey and Azerbaijan who are there as part of a "peacekeeping" operation, the American forces that recently arrived there, and numerous small groups of military teams from European countries who are trying to evacuate their citizens as well. Plus, there are aircraft which are engaging in commercial operations.

It is safe to assume that by this time, the airport is surrounded fully by Taliban forces. Everyone and every thing at the airport is hostage to the Taliban.

If the Taliban chose to attack the airport, they would likely get on the airport grounds fairly rapidly[2]. There would be panic among the civilians. In that chaos, how would the Americans respond with overwhelming force? Are the forces on the ground going to project this overwhelming force, killing everyone that gets near them? That would inevitably involve innocents trying to escape.

Similarly, once the Taliban are on the airport grounds, how feasible are air attacks? How many "danger close" bombing or strafing runs can the public stomach? How many civilians is the U.S. willing to blow to smithereens to repel such an attack?

One might say that the U.S. might respond to such attack by killing Taliban forces elsewhere. The Taliban leadership are not afraid of losing foot soldiers. Besides, hitting people 100s of miles away would not change the strategic situation on the ground.

So, either the U.S. would have to hit Taliban forces that are now dispersed through Kabul thereby killing a whole lot of innocents or they would have to try to go after the leadership. Where are they going to find them? If they are in densely populated in Kabul and they drop a MOAB on them, who's going to be accountable for the civilian lives lost? Besides, neither of this would stop the slaughter at the airport: It would just add to the physical and propaganda victories of the Taliban.

The Taliban know they have the American leadership by the balls. They know it. And, they will only do what they feel like doing notwithstanding any stern statements from said "leadership."

[1]: https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Art...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2012_raid_on_Camp_Ba...