Waymo Is 99% of the Way to Self-Driving Cars. The Last 1% Is the Hardest

bloomberg.com

3 points·megacorp··8 comments

This is a misuse of statistics. If the last 1% is the hardest (takes the most effort? takes the longest?), then they're not really 99% of the way there.

yeah, 99% of the way there either means they can handle everything on 99% of the roads (the definition you are using), or they have enumerated 100% of the things they need to handle and are at 99%. The last would be consistent with their claim and could well be a lot harder than the rest - however I doubt they have tried to enumerate all the things they need to do.

Nothing in the article seems to corroborate being 99% there, more like 10% of the way.

They could just as easily be 0% of the way. The stuff the community is working on doesn't end in self driving cars (in the sense of human level driving). Right now that is an AGI problem, and there is no evidence if or how far down we are on a path to AGI. Giving a percentage is like checking some theorem (Fermat's last problem e.g.) for millions of numbers and claiming we're closer to a proof.

self driving cars cannot (and will not) share the road with human drivers.

The issues are regulations and not technical.

They are barking at the wrong tree.

Then how is Waymo having driverless vehicles in Arizona already? You can use an app to order a ride like Uber, but without a driver

I would guess that there are not enough traffic in the area. Or that the traffic is very predictable.

Again, the tech is there, and it will work with driverless only. My point is against mixing with human drivers.

Quite the contrary, you can find good ride along videos on YouTube. They show how Waymo handles more difficult situations and how the system has improved.

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