For cases like that specifically, it's probable. But those are just like the scam emails where they say "hey, I know your password is ${OLD_PASSWORD}, I recently hacked your account on a popular 'adult recreation' site, remotely put Spyware on your computer, and recorded you 'entertaining yourself' while browsing videos (you have good taste lol). Send me x bitcoins or I'll email this to all the email and linkedin contacts my spyware found in your computer."

It's just an old password found in a breach years ago, they don't have anything else that's real. The difference here is that if they call and leave a voicemail with personal info, go to the police. They're not gonna bother tracking down a social engineering email, but they may be more inclined to go after verbal blackmail.