US has energy independance due to Fracking so it's pulling out and leaving behind all sorts of toys while handing the Taliban a political victory. China is dependant on ME energy imports and Russia due to its collapsing demographics only cares about taking the Carpathanian mountains and a chunk of Turkey to have a defensible border.

The Chinese need to take Taiwan to break out of the first island chain to secure energy Imports, but even if they take Taiwan this year or next, they now have to deal with a Taliban 3-5 years down the road that have American training and arms and all of whom have experience fighting Americans for the last 20 years. So if they take Taiwan they'll end in a direct conflict with Japan, Indonesia and India while the world shifts it supply chain to India whom has healthier demographics than China, and even if China manages to maintain its energy supply chain, it has to deal with disruption in the middle east and has to ship troops over to fight an arguably better equipped and more experienced adversary.

Should be interesting to see how this one plays out.