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Steam will hardly change the 1% status of GNU/Linux desktop.

Many forget that most studios don't bother to port their Android games to GNU/Linux, which are mostly written using the NDK, so plain ISO C and C++, GL, Vulkan, OpenSL,..., yet no GNU/Linux, because the market just isn't there.

The first wave of Steam Decks sold out in minutes. They're now pushing back delivery to Q2 2022. The demand for the device is pretty significant; not New Console large, but its definitely big enough to be visible in the Steam Hardware Survey upon release later this year, despite the vast size of Steam's overall playerbase.

Two weeks ago, the Hardware Survey reported Linux breaching 1% for the first time ever [1], for reasons not related to Deck (in fact, its not obvious WHY linux has been growing; disappointment in the Win11 announcement may have caused it, but in short, its healthy, natural, long-term growth). I would put real money up that Linux will hit 2% by the January 2022 survey, and 5% by January 2023.

Proton short-circuits the porting argument. It works fantastically for most games, with zero effort from the devs.

We're not talking about Linux being the majority. But its definitely looking like it will see growth over the next decade.

[1] https://www.tomshardware.com/news/steam-survey-linux-1-perce...

It took 20 years to reach 1%, so...

I believed in it back in the Loki golden days, nowadays I rather bet on macOS, Windows, mobile OSes and game consoles.

It remains to be seen how the Steam fairs versus the Steam Machines of yore.

Don't let history blind you to the now ;)

It's way better now than it was back then. There was a long period of good ports, which combined with the Steam for Linux client made Linux gaming a real thing already. But instead of fizzling out like the last time there were ports, now Linux transitioned to "Run every game" without needing a port. Some exceptions, but they are working on it and compatibility is huge.

This will grow slowly but steadily now, and is ready to explode if Microsoft does on bad move (like crazy Windows 11 hardware requirements, but we'll see).

Biggest danger to that development are the gpu prices, the Intel gpus can only help there. A competent 200 bucks model is desperately needed to keep the PC as a gaming platform alive. It has to run on fumes - on old hardware - now.

Just like everyone would migrate to GNU/Linux because of DirectX 10 being Vista only, or OpenGL being replaced by Metal?

Vista brought a lot of migration to Linux indeed. And the Mac being incapable of playing games is a factor for quite some people. But until recently, gaming on Linux was limited.

No one said everyone though.

Yeah otherwise it would be even less than 1% nowadays.

Obviously. That 1% gives an estimate of 1.2 million people btw - not a small group.

What's the rate of increase though? Has it been linear, 0.05% per year? No: it has increased about 0.25% since 2019. It's not just that Linux is increasing, it's that it's rate of increase is also increasing.

For me that is wishful thinking that ignores increases in other platforms.

How is it wishful thinking? It's a proportional increase. Meaning that it has increased in both absolute and relative terms, and done so at a faster rate in the last two years. I'm stating an observation of the data. I don't see room for wishful thinking in that.

Other platforms can increase while Linux also increases, the two aren't mutually exclusive.

I'm not saying it's going to take over the market. It's a huge long shot it will ever really rival Windows. Even if makes significant headway on Steam, that also doesn't necessarily translate to a corresponding change in OS market share. But the pending arrival of the Steam Deck combined with an enormous increase in game compatibility has nonetheless set the stage for significant gains for Linux with Steam.

Which part of the above observations are wishful thinking?

Not disagreeing with your overall point, but it's pretty rare for people to port their mobile game to PC even if using Unity and all you have to do is figure out the controls. Which you've probably got a beta version of just to develop the game.

>Steam will hardly change the 1% status of GNU/Linux desktop.

I agree. But it will change the status in the listings. Steam deck and steamos appliances should be broken out into their own category, and I could easily see them overtaking linux desktop

I think talking about android games is moving the goalposts a bit. There's no market for Android games on windows either.

On my end, and my Year of Linux Desktop started almost a decade ago, the Linux experience has not only never been better (of course) but has improved faster in recent years than ever before, and gaming is one of the fastest improving areas.

Proton is a fantastic piece of software.

Not at all.

Android seems to only be Linux when bragging about how Linux has won, yet to point out that games on Android/Linux distribution don't get made available on GNU/Linux distribution, is moving goalposts.

… Nvidia did release lower end cards that target the same market and price point as the 6600 XT a lot earlier than AMD though - as far as MSRP goes the 3060 and 3060 Ti bracket the 6600 XT’s $380 at $329 and $399 (not that MSRP means a thing right now) and similarly brackets performance, and even the MSRP was not received well in conjunction with the 1080p marketing. Both manufacturers have basically told the mid and low range market to buy a console even if you are lucky enough to get an AMD reference or Nvidia FE card.

I've happily taken their advice and have moved to an Xbox Series S for a good 80% of my gaming needs. What gaming I still do on my PC consists mainly of older games, emulators and strategy games. Although I've been messing with Retroarch/Duckstation on my Xbox, and it's been quite novel and fun to be playing PS1 games on a Microsoft console.

playing PS1 games on a Microsoft console.

That's just wrong. There should be some sort or matter/anti-matter reaction there.

You'd think so, but somehow it hasn't happened. I'm just waiting for PCSX2 to mature a bit more on Xbox, then I'll be playing PS2 games on my Xbox too.

You could do that since the OG XBOX days.

And SNES/MegaDrive.

Same here, I was looking to buy a GPU and for half the cost of a decent one (current market prices) I instead bought an Xbox Series X and a gamepass subscription. My gaming needs have been covered since February and gamepass keeps delivering while gpu prices are still too high for a no very serious gamer like myself.

The only game I've had to buy was Forza Motorsport 7, which is deeply discounted because it's leaving the service. Oh, and I couldn't resist Splinter Cell (the original Xbox version) and Beyond Good and Evil, which are also discounted to like 4 Euros. I might just end up buying the whole Splinter Cell series.

Otherwise, I have a list of 100 games installed that I'm slowly playing through that Game Pass has given me access to. Now today we're getting Humankind (on PC) and in two days Twelve Minutes. It's a ridiculously good deal.

Intel sells expensive CPUs which are becoming useless thanks to ARM - as much in consumer devices as they are in datacenters, with big players designing their own ARM chips. GPUs are their lifeboat. Three GPU players is better than two, but I don't see much of a reason to be long Intel.

You’re overestimating the role of the architecture. X86 is just fine, and is perfectly competitive at comparable node generations. Don’t believe everything Apple tells you. ;)

I don't believe much of anythign Apple tells me. The x86 is fine, but any reasons to prefer it to other architectures are disappearing fast. As someone who's suffered (literally suffered) due to Intel's abysmal and execrable graphics performance in the past, I don't expect that they'll exactly blow out this market.

One of the biggest reasons I want a real next-gen ARM-based Surface Pro is that I want to put Intel in the rearview mirror forever. I didn't hate Intel until I started buying Surfaces, then I realized that everything that sucks about the Surface family is 100% Intel's fault, from beyond-buggy faulty power management (cutting advertised battery life more than in half) to buggy and broken graphics ("Intel droppings" or redraw artifacts on the screen) to "integrated" graphics performance that just simply sucks so bad it's unusable for simple 3D CAD, much less gaming.

That every x86 CPU in Ultrabooks thottles itself into the ground while M1 on MacBook pro is almost impossible to throttle determined this is a lie.

Can you think of any differences in those two CPUs, other than architecture, that may be responsible for that?

Hint: TSMC's new 5nm process is being used in a laptop CPU by exactly one company at the moment.

It has nothing to do with 5nm. 5nm doesn't magically make the CPU output less heat then the cooling can handle.

IMO, the long position on Intel is basically a bet on China invading Taiwan, or the US gov't subsidizing Intel. Both are certainly extreme events, but given Chinese military expansion and US increase in gov't spending, it doesn't seem impossible.

China doesn't even have to invade: just an ever incrementally increasing amount of soft pressure, punctuated by slightly larger actions calibrated to fall just below a provocation that requires a response. See their naval exercises for just one example.

Didn't they already seed the government with chinese officials last year? there were tons of riots etc... but so many 'bad' things in news that we don't focus on it anymore

There are also more reasons to buy nvidia gpus just than their speed they have great driver support, features like RTX Voice which cleans up the audio and other proprietary features like DLSS. Though I would argue that desktop gaming is becoming a thing of the past because mobile gaming is that much more powerful and easier to use and setup.

I'd love to believe what you are saying is true, but I just can't bring myself to play a game requiring accurate inputs on mobile. It is a disaster.

> These Nvidia/AMD cards are unprecedented overkill for most gamers. People are begging for cards that can run games at 1080p, Nvidia went straight to 4K, even showing off 8K gaming on the 3090, and now they can't even deliver any cards that run 720p/1080p. Today, we've got AMD releasing the 6600XT, advertising it as a beast for 1080p gaming [2]. This is what people actually want; affordable and accessible cards to play games on (whether they can keep the 6600xt in stock remains to be seen, of course). Nvidia went straight Icarus with Ampere; they shot for the sun, and couldn't deliver.

Do they need dedicated GPUs at all then? My impression has been that if you just want to go at 1080p and modest settings modern integrated GPUs can do fine for most games.

It depends on the game; for something like CS:GO or Overwatch, an integrated GPU @ 1080p is fine. For something like Cyberpunk, Apex Legends, or Call of Duty, its really not enough for an enjoyable experience.

I don't own any INTC, just index funds right now, but I tip my hat to you on Intel. Buying Intel today is essentially like gobbling up American apple pie. If you love China, buy paper design firms AMD or Apple. If you like the USA, buy Intel or maybe a paperweight in Nvidia, as they're diversified at Samsung and in talks to produce at Intel.

I'm expecting China-Taiwan-US tensions to increase, and all these outsourcing profit seeking traitors will finally eat crow. As if "just getting rich" wasn't enough for them.

My stock bets and opinions don't have to necessarily be pro-American (certainly wouldn't buy anything outright anti-American). But I love it when they align like today.

Looking forward to picking up an Intel Arc.

Here on the elite tech news webite, we were celebrating clipboard and screenshot tools just three months back and you dream about the year on desktop.

I've said it before and I've said it again, the biggest problem with linux and oss are the fanatics and deluded dreamers.