Comment by hug | Hacker News Reader

Comment by hug | Hacker News Reader

Australia has had very, very few deaths from COVID -- or even cases -- compared to most of the "Western" world.

In Sydney, a city of over 5 million, the current lockdown laws were implemented when there were up to ~90 cases per day. The goal, for most Australian states, has been complete elimination of COVID. In Melbourne, we went back into lockdown because of 10 positive test results in a single day. The other states of Australia are largely all "fully open" with no restrictions (including any kind of mask mandate) because there are zero cases in the cities. Australia's method to date has been to lock down hard and re-open after elimination... until COVID sneaks back in on a plane or some such.

The restrictions look something like: A full indoor mask mandate, non-essential retail stores are closed: Grocery, fast food & convenience (to go only), alcohol, & hardware are open, restaurants and bars are closed, visits to homes other than your own are disallowed (with the exception of your "intimate partner", if they live within 5 kilometers), and you may meet with no more than 1 other person outdoors for the purpose of exercise only.

In some LGAs (Local Government Area, kinda like a county?) you must have a permit to leave your LGA for any reason including work.

Vaccination rates are low, not because of an unwilling populace but because the federal government failed to source enough vaccines.

Compliance with lockdown rules has been pretty decent, to date, but it's looking like it's going to continue along like this until probably December, at this stage.

I respect that, but you can't get rid of it without a complete and utter total shutdown of people coming in. Probably easier for Australia than most.

USA has a lot of really uneducated and/or ignorant people, but even without it, global travel would keep pounding us with it. I imagine Australia would have a similar issue.

New Zealand had a managed isolation quarantine (MIQ) program. From plane landing to hotel is carefully manages, as is time in hotel, with tests throughout the stay looking for Covid. 14 days later, assuming your tests are negative, you're released into a country without Covid.

It is possible to have a flow of people, but it's dependant upon a supply of MIQ facilities and trained staff (NZ Defense Force oversees MIQ here). We'll be trialling some "isolate at home if you're from a country with low Covid" lightweight alternatives in the coming months, but there will still be the retirement to isolate.

What you've said as Australia very true.

Australia doesn't have the same issue as other non-island countries, and in fact has some advantages over other island countries in that its population centres are few and far between -- even with the two largest cities currently in lockdown, every other city of over 500,000 residents is so geographically distant that they are not and have no need to be.

At the current vaccination rate, hovering around maybe ~25% of adults, is lockdown worth it? I would say so, and it appears that so does the majority of the Australian population.

Australia is the size of the USA with 25million people scattered around the edges.

There isn't massive amounts on travel like the USA so locking down was pretty straight forward.

And the reason this infection rate

> In Melbourne, we went back into lockdown because of 10 positive test results in a single day.

Is a problem is that with an R0 of 6, the progression is 10 > 60 > 360 > 2160 and then healthcare system breakdown at 12960 cases per day: the ICUs are overwhelmed, there are medical tents being set up in parking lots, and nowhere near enough nurses and machines and doctors to go around.

Honest question, Whats happening with the owners of those bars and restaurants? are they expected to continue to pay their employees, rents and mortgagees? If so how are they remaining solvent and if not how are their counterparties expected to remain solvent?

There are various federal business assistance programs to help them with fixed costs. They're not expected to pay employees (who are largely 'casual', on an hourly basis only).

Those unpaid employees are able to receive government payment: In Melbourne, Victoria, this is $600/week if you have lost more than 20 hours of employment for that week. Unsure about Sydney, NSW, but I do know there are benefits available.

On a macro level, doesn't this mean that the Australian government is printing money until either COVID goes away or banks stop accepting AUD?

No. The current government roadmap is to remove lockdown restrictions at various vaccination levels.

The current vaccination rate is very low due to a bungled vaccine rollout. This is changing though. The government messaging now is “get vaccinated so we can lift these restrictions”.

There is a pause on evictions and financial support from government.

Banks are motivated to allow mortgage payments to be deferred (high property prices and more income via interest payments are good for business).

The pause on evictions force landlords to enter negotiate with tenants who need rent reductions in order to survive. If they don’t they risk losing months of rent and having no tenant in bad market.

Most of the workforce in these industries are casual employees who are also covered by goverment assistance if their hours are reduced. Full time workers also get support if they are furloughed.

I have friends who own these types of businesses. Spikes in case numbers result in booking cancellations/low patronage so the whole situation is perceived as an unfortunate catch-22 situation.

> Vaccination rates are low, not because of an unwilling populace but because the federal government failed to source enough vaccines.

Australia has been producing the Astra-Zeneca vaccine, but having deemed it unsafe for their own people, they donated large amounts to developing countries while they waited in a queue for the Pfizer vaccine. Then the Delta variant showed up and the risk-benefit ratio of the AZ vaccine changed, so now all Aussie adults can get it if they choose.

It's funny because Fiji will soon have over 80% of their eligible population vaccinated thanks to the Aussies, while Australia lags far, far behind.

Fiji overtook Australia at the top of rankings for Oceania so it is not particularly a great period for them either :/.

French Polynesia is on the rise as well but NZ is holding so far!

Yup, the 3 month delay between shots was/is a big problem.

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