I like to think that making software easier to write will just free up more capital to be spent on other software problems. I haven't seen many software projects where the client doesn't compromise features due to budget or time.
Playing this kind of knowledge gatekeeping can work for a time, but it's a double-edge sword. Yeah you might profit for a while, but eventually someone will come and yank the rug out from under you because you have no competitive or innovative muscle left.
The way I look at it is this: if someone can automate something they should. As a programmer I've never had a shortage of higher order problems to solve. The skills that make you a good programmer allow you to move up the foodchain as lower-level problems are solved. You should embrace this rather than fight against it.
Early in my career I was making websites for $2-5k a pop, now most of that can be done with Shopify or Squarespace for $5/month. Can you imagine if I was still clinging on to that business model today? I'm sure it would be a pretty anxious existence wondering when the clients will dry up, and frankly I'm pretty happy not worrying about SFTPing someones files somewhere and hoping they don't call me when they misplace their password.
So am I scared about no-code tools? Hell no, I welcome these developments. If more smart entrepreneurs can get started building cool things and get traction, it's only a matter of time before they outgrow those tools, and come to me asking how we can take it to the next level. Same goes for big data, ML, etc. All of these are tools, we are nowhere near general AI that will obsolete a smart human technical mind.
The real threat to programmers isn’t going to come from easier tools it’s going to come from the failures of programmers and the ability for large companies to capitalise on it. I work in a non-tech organisation. We (and this is the strategical we) would like nothing more than to sign the keys of our IT empire over to Microsoft, IBM or whomever and simply use standard software because using custom software has been nothing but a three decade long story of failed, delayed and over budget projects. I’m from a programming background myself, and I never actually believed in standard software because it always sucked worse than the specialised software, but that is changing.
Over the past 5 years we’ve replaced more than 25 independent solutions (and enough money that I’ve not had to cut down on staff because of it) by simply using Office365. We used to have a myriad of different project management tools, now they’re all handles by teams and planner which both seamlessly integrate to our ESDH system (public sector documentation and record keeping).
We’ve kept our own programmers on staff, and they are busy, because we still handle quite a bit of internal data or services in Python and Powershell and we do a massive amount of RPA (robot process automation), but guess what’s now part of our Azure license. Because Microsoft recently pitched automation anywhere, which happens to be our branch of RPA software because we did it a little different than E&Y types recommend, but it’s like 5% of the license fee to run a municipality with 10.000 employees suite of RPA with Azure Auromation compared to what it would cost to do so in its competition. Which is just crazy.
That will be the doom of programmers, and the shitty tools that lead to failed projects might be part of the reason.
Maybe the market will move fast enough that it’s not an issue. It wasn’t an issue for web-developers when small businesses started being capable of buying a standard webshop for almost nothing, and as I mentioned we still employ our own developers. But I’d frankly be worried if I was young and not careering into some non-replaceable part of programming and even then, I think you might find that plumbers will earn more money than you in 10 years when the market is also saturated with all the people we are currently herding toward IT degrees because we need a few hundred thousand extra right now.