Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall | Hacker News Reader

Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

bostinnovation.com

50 pointsabshaw57 comments

Here in the UK, gas (petrol) is well over $8 per US gallon (£1.30 per litre) and has been for some time. It hasn't been less than 79p a litre for nearly a decade. Most hybrid and electric cars are bought for use in London, where they are exempt from the $16 per day charge to drive into the city centre. I live in a large (>2 million population) city in the north of England and have never seen an electric car here.

I lived in Oxford until 6 weeks ago, and while I rarely noticed electric cars (I didn't honestly spend much time paying attention to what was driving around), what was noticeable was that carparks around the city had got electric "pumps", for people to recharge at. Not that I ever saw one being used, mind.

The article is basing itself on market pressure while the UK is an example of regulatory pressure.

You don't think that $8 gas and $16 congestion charges created market pressure? If $8 gas in the UK doesn't make everyone switch to electric, how will $5 in the US do the trick?

Price is price...

I don't understand why electricity must be generated at charging stations.

"Electric charing stations must have charging equipment, generate their own electricity and have the capacity to distribute a lot of electricity."

IMHO, the lack of a reasonable solution to the gas-station (err ... fill station?) problem is the key problem here. I was at the NYC auto show and saw the charging solutions for the Volt. They all sucked. As I recall, the fastest charging solution they had required custom electrical wiring and could charge the car in around 20-30 mins.

I've also encountered the idea of swapping batteries at the fill station. This idea has a lot of problems too but probably gives the best end user experience.

To address your first issue: I'm guessing it must be cheaper (in the long term) to generate your own electricity as a charging station that buy it off of a provider.

I've also encountered the idea of swapping batteries at the fill station. This idea has a lot of problems too but probably gives the best end user experience.

You're probably thinking of a startup called http://www.betterplace.com . I wonder what their analysis on gas prices would be to come to the continental US (their strategy right now is to go for densely populated areas).

They just opened their first battery switching station in Denmark, of 20 they plan to open there in the next year.

I also don't understand the need for charging stations to generate their own electricity. I do, however, think the way which electric cars are filled/charged will be fundamentally different than how our current automobiles are filled with gasoline. I think every time an electric car is parked, it will be plugged in, either to charge or to send power back to the grid. Perhaps the net metering part is what they meant by the ability of stations to generate their own power. I think "stations" will be ubiquitous, with outlets in most major parking lots. This scenario still doesn't help people who want to take long road trips on their electric vehicle but it does cover most use cases.

Lithium-titanate battery can be charged in 10min@250kW according to E-RA specs: http://www.raceabout.fi/era/

They have somewhat smaller capacity than conventional lithium-ion though.

250 kw?

If something shorts that's going to make a spark people will notice!

In Sao Paulo[BR] gas price hit US$5.5/gall a couple of years ago, and I just spotted 5 electric cars in my life, I know we're are so called emergent but Sao Paulo is more similar to some american metropoles than anything in europe or even US.

Our "cheap" alternatine, sugar cane Ethanol it's costing US$4.39/gall. I just filled my VW with gas today and it cost me US$7.20/gall.

Mankind will adopt alternatives as soon we drain global reserves.

I did all conversions because we buy gas in litters

litres, buy gas in litres ...

Anecdotally CalTRain ridership picks up at around $4.25/gal. more or less. So, it's possible they are on to something. Next car I get, I would like to get a hybrid --to insure [hedge] against future gas price increases, rather than a way to save now.

The alternative to pure electric isn't pure gas, it's hybrid electric vehicles. You can't beat the worst alternative to win, you've got to beat the best alternative. That alone makes me not trust the rest of the study.

Indeed. It also overlooks the fact that the price of fuel is only the second most important factor in determining electric car adoption, with the most important being electric car technology.

Electric cars are getting better rapidly, and I'll probably get one eventually (preferably with a fuel-burning backup motor like a Chevy Volt) but I'm waiting for the technology to get better and cheaper, not for the price of fuel to reach some magic number.

A culture shift away from daily transportation of individuals would be much more significant than going electric. I'm all for a reasonable all electric alternative (I'm thinking motorcycle) but the reality is that until we stop having so many people traveling back and forth every day we aren't going to get away from the energy demand that such transportation requires.

I completely agree. I think what we really need is some rethinking and innovating ideas on public transportation. I know that is a vague concept to a lot of American's that live in cities other than NYC and maybe Chicago and a few others, but it is a solution that works in other areas of the world. We have some obstacles to get it to work here for sure, but good old American ingenuity can surely solve those can't they?

This prediction only holds true if the market has enough viable options of electric cars. As for now, Tesla and Nissan are the only two all electric cars.

I just purchased a diesel car and diesel fuel IS at around $4.40 per gallon... I would have gladly purchased a electric car.

Tesla's price point is too high and their lower priced model is still a little ways away from release. Nissan Leaf can run only for 100 miles before it needs to be charged. This makes it a difficult substitute for a regular gasoline car because it will not be able to satisfy most Americans driving needs.

Therefore, for this prediction to hold true, its important to have enough viable options in market.

> "100 miles ... will not be able to satisfy most Americans driving needs."

Most Americans commute 30 miles per day. 100 miles per day covers something like three quarters of all drivers. Range anxiety is a largely psychological concern; it has little to do with actual needs.

Renting a car sucks. I would not want to do that once every month, which is about how often I drive over 100 miles.

Services like Zipcar will be strongly complementary goods to electric cars.

> Renting a car sucks.

Now that I don't quite understand. I find renting a car to be a lot of fun. The salespeople are always super friendly, they get you in and out quick, the price is relatively low (~$70/day after taxes), and you usually get to drive a brand new model.

Maybe doing it once per month would be a headache for some. Personally, I like it and if it saved me money to drive an electric car, I would happily take this deal.

It's fun, if you're on a trip and have a lot of time. But as a semi-regular thing:

- I have to drive to the car rental place unless I live close enough for a pickup, in which case I have to wait around to be picked up.

- I have to arrange my trip so that I both depart and return during the rental place's hours. If I come back late, I have to pay a penalty and either take time off from work the next morning or drive the rented car a whole extra day.

- Unless I rent from a 24-hour airport location, which is usually twice as expensive and does not do pick-ups, so I also have to pay to park my electric car at the airport.

etc. Essentially, it's just not good for routine use.

Heh. I live within walking distance of an Avis and a Hertz, so perhaps my perspective is different.

Most rental places will let you drop the car off after hours, though, for what that's worth.

If you are a member of the frequent renter programs (e.g. Hertz gold club) it is a lot easier, too -- no need to fill in paperwork or even talk to a human each time, since your car should be waiting for you in a stall. Still not quite zip car.

The thing I hate about zip car I'd that the cars aren't maintained between users, so they are often dirty.

The thing I hate about both is that I like having a comprehensive trauma kit, tool kit, zombie/civil insurrection, wifi and inverter, nav system, etc. in my car, so it is not really convenient to transfer all of that between vehicles.

My solution will be company shared f-350 diesel and leased electric, shared at the office for work/personal use.

Note that 100 miles is the ideal range under ideal conditions. Consumer Reports did some preliminary driving tests [1] of the Nissan Leaf and found in extreme cold they barely got 8 miles of range on a full charge in 10 degree (F) weather. Typically they were seeing an average of 65 miles in 20-30 degree (F) weather. This is probably why the 2012 model will come with a built-in battery heater that keeps it warm while charging.

So I would definitely not recommend the Leaf unless you live in Hawaii or California. I believe range is also compromised in extreme heat as well. Basically, you've got to live in paradise to expect a 100 mile range year-round from the Leaf.

[1] http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2011/01/second-drive-20...

Ford will have an all-electric Focus available soon. I think automakers are gearing up for significant hybrid/electric vehicle demand.

http://green.autoblog.com/2011/01/10/ford-vp-electric-drive-...

There is precedent, sorta, in aviation: 100LL hit $4.50 a couple years back and is now between $5-$8.

Cessna started developing an electric 172 in 2010: http://green.autoblog.com/2010/08/11/cessna-developing-elect...

I say "sorta" because it's not an industry-wide movement.

There's a sorta precedent in countries other than the US. Gas in the UK costs at least $9 per gallon, and there hasn't been a huge shift to electric cars: http://www.roadtransport.com/blogs/road-freight-industry-ann... (that link is for businesses only, but if anyone had an incentive...)

It's more like $8.15-$8.30. I've heard various outlandish figures quoted, but in fact $8.15-$8.30 is a better approximation. I bought some normal unleaded petrol on Monday from Texaco, and it was £1.34/L. 1.34 (British pounds per litre) = 8.28686449 U.S. dollars per US gallon.

Perhaps if you visit a Texaco in the middle of nowhere, or a petrol station in central London, and you buy some 99 RON super unleaded, you could make it to $9/gal(US). Maybe diesel briefly touched $9/gal(US) earlier this year. It's possible. That's definitely the upper end of the price range, though!

...well, so far.

I think the energy economics are different for planes and cars, though. There's no equivalent of regenerative braking, or for that matter stop-and-go traffic, for planes.

And adding weight to a car doesn't make it use more energy at high speeds, which is how an old van can get 15 miles per gallon while a fully loaded semi truck gets 10 miles per gallon. Adding weight to a plane does make it use more energy. The effect of adding weight is relevant because batteries weigh almost 500 times as much per joule as fuel does.

> There's no equivalent of regenerative braking

Point the nose down with the power off?

Nose up to slow down: altitude = stored energy

Right, but you don't need an electric airplane to do that. With cars, electric is much more efficient for stop-and-go driving because regenerative braking becomes possible.

I'd rather go with a diesel engine for small craft, and turboprop or turbofans for bigger/faster stuff. Jet a is widely available and cheap.

Isn't 100LL twice that in Europe?

Oh really? The current gasoline price in Germany is around 1.588 Euro per liter which is 6.01 Euro per gallon (stupid imperial unit) or glorious 8,57 Dollar.

Still no electric cars.

Different culture. Different daily life transportation realities.

This is claimed very often. I did some very basic research here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2766844 (in a related discussion). In short, I don't see a substantial reason to believe that Americans drive all that more than Europeans do, and certainly not enough to say that the US switch to electric would happen significantly below the current gas price in Europe.

(there may be other factors - Americans' general tendency to go to technological solutions earlier than others, other interests that will drive development/adoption of non-petrol powered cars, ...)

This supports your view: http://www.bsfrey.ch/articles/456_07.pdf

Suggests that the the average US commute time is comparable to Germany's (48 vs 42 minutes). Germany's time has an SD of 19 minutes.

Along similar lines: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2765874

You're only thinking of cars, and only comparing car use.

You're neglecting things like the fact that plenty of people who might be car commuters in the US would statistically be public transit users in Germany. So, fuel cost pressures that would turn a German to public transit couldn't do the same for an American who lacks similar access to public transit. Hence the potential for the American's increased desire for fixing the problem at the automobile level.

Whether it's true or not, I can't say. I am only commenting that comparing car commute times between the two countries doesn't really begin to address the question.

The press has been drumming it up for the Opel Ampera (european badge of the Chevy Volt), but I don't think they're being delivered yet. My local Opel site has a configurator (mostly paint job ;-) with prices (over 40k euro).

Bumped into an interesting tidbit: an official blog post claiming 80% energy recuperation in the regenerative braking system http://opel-ampera.com/wp_en/2011/07/21/maximal-recuperation...

The other posts in the blog indicate that it's in the "presentation to the press" stage this month.

yeah, wanted to write exactly that. US citizen cry about gasoline prices while most europeans already pay around $8 per gallon. Different driving habits ? Different studies show thats not true (posted in the comments here as well)

Still i dont see electric cars becoming mainstream in the near future

I guess that is the main difference. US citizens are not willing to pay for more than 4 dollars and will start looking for ways to decrease that. You guys are already accustomed to $8 somehow. It really is a lot of money, don't know how you can afford it.

Its not that we are willing to pay that either, but we just dont have much choice as most electric cars arent capable of decent ranges yet and/or cost huge amounts of money for not alot of car.

In the part of Canada I live in it's $1.33/liter, which is $5.00/gallon.

I don't see a rush to buy electric cars here. But smaller cars are more popular in Canada compared to the USA. For example, smart fortwo was introduced in Canada four years before it came to the USA. It's rare a product comes to Canada before the USA.

Americans don't have to go from gas to electric. They can go from gas guzzler to gas sipper.

Cool. Where does the electricity come from?

Worst case Coal which costs far less than Oil. The really good news is the US has a lot of Coal and Coal has a drasticly lower carbon footprint because of reduced extration, refining, and transportation costs per BTU.

The worst case may be coal, but the most likely case (for America) is that the additional electricity needs are met by Natural Gas. More specifically, natural gas derived from the oil shale deposits.

Here's a link with some interesting info on this: http://blogs.forbes.com/jeffmcmahon/2011/06/30/cheap-natural...

While this isn't the ideal solution for the environment (frankly, I then that solar towers with molten salt storage reservoirs are the best all around energy solution right now), natural gas is altogether far less damaging to the environment than coal.

Take a look at this study: http://media.kentucky.com/smedia/2009/10/19/10/HiddenCosts.s...

In a nutshell, coal is vastly more damaging to the environment than any other form of generating electricity.

I don't think it makes sense to term this prediction in price of gas. Even as they say in the study, one of the most weighted factors in a purchasing decision is the number of charging stations available. It's the cart and the horse, even if gas is $5/gallon, consumers won't be super motivated to buy cars b/c of a lack of charging stations, and charging stations won't be built due to a lack of existing demand.

These things need to happen together to make the change, not just the gas price hike. Like others have alluded to, there needs to be more of a cultural shift or incentives from the government.

I think it makes sense to do this study with more focus on number of charging stations or public/private investment in the space rather than gas price.

There are many places where prices are higher than that, I would have liked them to explain why those places don't have electric cars.

As a concrete example, nowadays a liter of gaz is at about EUR1.50 in France. That's 1.50 EUR/L * 3.8 L/gal * 1.43 USD/EUR = 8.2 USD/gal.

Of course people drive less here: cities are less car-friendly, public transportation is more developed, and when choosing a house, people take transportation to work/shops/leisure into account. But there is virtually no electric car, despite significant tax breaks and nuclear electricity at 0.10 EUR/KWh.

I paid $4.53/gallon for diesel in Boston yesterday, so I guess we're all good to go on the electrics. (I bought a diesel instead, which does get great mileage.)

to me the situation reminds the 1976 when somebody needed to build and start selling usable personal computer, ie. Apple. We have all the components in place, yet attempts to convert regular car into electric (amateurs as well as Tesla/Nissan, etc...) clearly show limitations of that approach. The 500kg 30KW $10K block of batteries is the centerpiece (or spread along the floor) around which the car needs to be (re)designed the way it is designed now around gas engine and transmission. Designing for the pure electric one would get the main things taken care about - weight and shape resulting in 200+ miles range car.

Saw here, on 101, a guy driving at ~60mph a bare metal 4 wheel electric drive platform (with a couple of kind of roll-over bars) and it strangely evoked associations with Wozniak's Apple I.

Has any of you seen "Collapse"?

Its a Documentary, and in it this guy states that there is no realistic substitution for oil, and once we run out of it society will collapse.

Pretty scary.

If we run out of it all of a sudden yes. We are starting to feel the pain at least here in America and already we are starting to adapt. So no, our society won't collapse. We will find a way, we always do.

I hope we do, but it seems to me that a lot of components of an electric car will depend directly or indirectly to oil, that it will be like saying that if we run out of water, we can always drink coke.

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