I think this is a bear case on China - essentially you're saying that authoritarian government is unstable by nature, democracy is the end of history, etc.

I'm a bit less certain. Past is no indication of future, but China has been the most successful authoritarian country to date. Enough for me to start questioning whether democracy is truly the only way.

For example, I look at their recent crack down rather enviously - to pivot from consumer internet which they realized they have no competitive advantage over into the "German model" where industrialization is key, is a much better approach considering their industrial base and current political climate. In the US, things are moving much slower.

So IDK - I'm not sure if I buy the "it'll get worse" effect. Besides, you could be right, just off by 500 years. In the longrun - we're all dead