Ah, my bad. I somehow got mixed up and thought we were talking about LEO prices. I agree, going below $1K/kg to the Moon's surface may be hard even for Starship as it looks like it requries multiple tanker Starship launches to refuel the payload Starship waiting in orbit. I do think LEO prices will probably be lower than $1K/kg.

I believe Falcon 9 could be priced a good amount lower and still be profitable on a per unit basis (ignoring ongoing R&D) but SpaceX has little pressure to do so as there isn't a competitor with a similar offering. It's interesting, as once Starship is out it may somewhat cannibalize the Falcon 9 marketshare.

You raise a good point about the shuttle, however SpaceX can learn from that. I'd bet they are striving hard to make Starship more effectively and efficiently reusable than the Space Shuttle was. We shall see how successful they are with that. I'd be very surprised if it was not a significant improvement over the reusability of the shuttle.

Perhaps the real paradigm shift will occur once there are two or more companies with fully reusable rockets such that there is more competitive pressure to cut margins and lower prices.