‘The Ultra Mega’: Taiwan Invasion Could Defy Comprehension
forbes.com
forbes.com
Maybe they will just state they intentions, ask for a peaceful surrender, if there's a negative, probably detonate a low yield nuclear device close to the island, then threat Taiwan about a proper aerial detonation after 24 hs. (to send the whole island to the stone age with the PEM). No need to lose/destroy the entire country infrastructure, just disabled it temporarily. And just after that, you could starting seeing a rain missiles over the protected beaches.
The strong of the chinese fleet and the infantery will remain fully available and still untouched, after maybe 72 hs. after the initial detonation. Just ready for any external - foreseeable - interference arrival, by the way.
If it's confirmed that nobody will actually try risk a WWIII detonation incident, the actual invasion will follow. How they would play their cards after having the territory would be another story.
¿Who would fight an entire fleet+army for Taiwan, with the risk of losing Japan and/or South Korea if the cards are badly played? Not even invaded, just leveled with shells + cruise missiles.
If somebody tries to intervene, it will fight an entire fresh fleet + army. Of course, any power could attack Mainland, but that risk retaliation against their own coasts, forces, not some half-world away country.
I think China hasn't attacked yet because it provides not enought return for what it would cost them, or could cost them if the hostilities get extended to third countries, or worst, if the damage touches the Mainland.
Taiwan indeed achieved a succesful deterrent strategy here, because the extensive conventional military power of theirs almost guarantees that the only reasonable way to invade them would be using nuclear weapons, and the stakes of using nukes are ashtoningly high:
you (as in China), could win a thousand years remembered battle or suddenly sunk in a sea of unintended consequences.