Hacker News Reader

HNHacker News

Top New Best Ask Show Jobs

Comment by dredmorbius | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

dredmorbius·

As of August 05, 2021, 07:19

95% Pred.interval = 0.92% to 3.0%

IFR estimate = 0.46%

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-...

That's 90--300 times larger than the value you plucked out of whatever muse availed you.

With the most stringent global health measures in human history.

View on HN

Yes but it's not actually a random lottery. The risk of death for a young person according to that page is probably 0.25%. However, not all young people are healthy. If you're healthy, it's probably close to an order of magnitude lower. More importantly, most people who got COVID didn't get tested. They just got better at home, or never even noticed that they had it. So there's another order of magnitude. For young healthy people, you're looking at 0.0025%.

I just think we should be clear about the risks. Obviously if you're older and/or unhealthy the risks are worse than presented as well.

A probabalistic event with different probabilities remains probabalistic. A lottery with different award tranches, if you will.

The original question concerned risks, and gave a clearly bogus answer. I provided the best current available knowledge.

I plucked them from Google. As of this morning it says there are 4.26 Million deaths, and 7.9 billion people on earth. My equation as done with 4.25 and 7.8, but same difference. Locked down areas faired about the same as stringent areas. In my opinion wearing a cloth mask does nothing except make the person wearing it feel some level of control about the virus. But as they say, viruses will do what they do.

That is not a valid epidemiological methodology.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com