Why aren't the oldest living people getting any older?
slate.com
slate.com
The second one is completely separate from this and way harder to tackle because it involves messing with the parameters of life in a profound way. The main problem here is that the human body, like all higher life forms on this planet, is designed to be a disposable object from the ground up. We now know that human biochemistry is the result of an evolutionary process which when faced with a problem consistently comes up with the worst possible solution that is still workable. It's 3 billion years worth of crufty spaghetti code, literally.
Contrary to disease, aging isn't one factor going "wrong". It's a million little modules coming to the inevitable end of their cheaply designed life. Of course, we'll tackle this eventually - we have to if we ever want to move on from this weird intermediary half-state between nature and intellect - but it's going to be slow, slow progress.
Intuitively, I'd say we might have some very limited success in scaling up that X axis within the next 20 years, but it'll be a long time before we actually solve this issue. Which is sad, because I wanted to be around for much longer and now I most likely won't get to do that. Then again, the subject of life extension meets with so much hostility it's actually easy to argue that we as a culture are not ready for this yet.
1. Mind/body dualism also arose in pagan Greece (Plato being the clearest example).
2. When most people think of dualism today, they are thinking of Cartesian dualism where the mind and body have a very tenuous connection indeed. But that is a relatively recent idea. Within the Christian tradition, something like Hylemorphic dualism[1], which maintains a very tight connection between mind and body, long predated it. (Probably due in part to belief in the Resurrection of the Body.)
[1] http://www.reading.ac.uk/AcaDepts/ld/Philos/dso/papers/Hylem...
Historically, the idea was present in Greece, certainly in the writings of Plato, before Christianity. The ancient Hebraic idea, reflected in early Christian writings, was much more that the mind and body were intimately linked. But Platonic dualism taking over in Christianity is an example of one meme outcompeting another.
The brain upload hypothesis seems a bit naive. I could see a synthetic body hypothesis. Imagine if we could reproduce all these organs via some method and move the brain or the head to a new host. But turning this stuff into software? Very implausible
Longevity research is probably the way to go. I imagine that's the first baby step in creating synthetic hosts anyway.
How much consciousness is in the physical body, and not just the brain but the rest of the body? Do we really know?
Only from the Malthusians.
There is no 'we', people act individually. If people will have enough savings, they will retire earlier, if they don't they keep working. The increase in life expectancy would be doubled with an increase in health and fitness at these older ages. So people can and would keep working.
The alternative interpretation is more insidious: "we should not allow people to live longer because it will bankrupt the pension system". Well, if the pension system is one casualty of longer, healthier and more productive lives then so be it.
There are many 'we's," people act together and individually. Some of the ways we act together are strictly voluntary, others are coerced (tax supported activity) and we either agree and go along or disagree and go along. Some people don't go along at all in rare cases.
I don't know if I follow correctly. Do you feel that solving the life extension puzzle is tantamount to intellectual nirvana? I'd say there is still plenty more to talk about (say [1] and [2], for example), and arguably deeper from a strictly intellectual viewpoint. In fact, I'd say that the fact that I happen to be mortal or not does not tackle any of classical intellectual conundrums.
Then again, the subject of life extension meets with so much hostility it's actually easy to argue that we as a culture are not ready for this yet.
I'm not sure about life extension, but effectively ending retirement would be met with hostility! But then again, we're getting both things (end of retirement/pensions and the resulting unrest) without indefinite life extension.
Not at all. I'm talking about biological reality. Right now we're not really a part of nature anymore but we're not yet independently functioning entities either. By developing intellect and the deeper consciousness that goes with it, we stopped being a mere collection of genes. In fact, in quite a few respects our genes and our minds have opposing interests now. In order to grow and embrace the aspect that we have minds, we need to totally master the biological substrate that gave birth to us or maybe we even move completely beyond it. In practice, it's probably going to be a combination of the two.
When I say we're hanging in a weird half-state between nature and intellect I'm referring to this kind of existential identity crisis. A lot of people do believe we're first and foremost genomes walking around. A lot of people do believe that this discourse is irrelevant because they have religious views that already have a monopoly on the meaning of life. But at the same time, there are some people who would like to keep moving forward towards a far horizon that we can already glimpse. In fact, for some of us it is an ethical imperative.
In the end, it simply boils down to the value that we assign to a mind, to a consciousness, soul, whatever you want to call the complete essence of a human being. Tell me how valuable a human mind is to you and I can predict your stance on the future development of mankind.
On the other hand, I have my serious doubts about the psychological resilience of human beings under indefinite life extension, even if carried out flawlessly (big if). I would gladly pay a chunk, more than on anything of this kind, to travel in time and see how this would play out.
As someone educated in theoretical biology and learning theory, I object to this kind of characterization of the evolutionary process. There is no evidence for a superior magical learning algorithm that would have done better-- see the no free lunch theorem. This characterization also lacks respect for the difficulty of many-dimensional optimization problems on non-fixed fitness landscapes, which is what evolution has to deal with. (Mathematically, the problem tackled by natural evolution is effectively infinite-dimensional. By comparison, the problems tackled by human engineers are toy problems.)
It would be more accurate to say that evolution, when faced with a problem, finds a working solution. There is no way to know how close or how far that working solution is from a theoretical optimum, since the theoretical optimum is non-computable. (If it were straightforwardly computable, evolution would find a gradient to ascend and discover it rapidly.)
"Life doesn't work perfectly. It just works."
That being said, it is likely that our mortality represents a hard compromise between the survival value of longevity, adaptations to prevent cancer (many of which have aging side effects, like telomeres), and the species-scale (or selfish-gene-scale) survival value of getting oldsters out of the way to make room for the next generation.
The fact that humans can live substantially longer than is merely necessary to reproduce is due to the fact that we're a K-selected species rather than an R-selected species. (Cicadas, for example, are an R-selected species. Dolphins, Elephants, and Humans are K-selected.)
The same way I am not comfortable with using dynamic verbs when describing evolution. Evolution does not find a solution. It's just that a solution that fits emerges. After producing many dysfunctional living individuals. It's still the only way life can evolve by itself, and I wouldn't dare to say if it is a laborious or great way to sustain ifself.
BTW, in human engineering the first solution is also often kept. Look at nuclear power. We probably should be using the thorium cycle, but we kept light water reactors because they were the first big reactor commercialized (for military reasons). Another example would be x86 architecture. I am not arguing that evolution is magical in any way, just that human engineering doesn't show signs of being much better in many cases.
I see a lot of engineers who are ignorant of biology claiming that "evolution is slow" and that we should be able to snap our fingers and do better. It's a popular point of view among the singularity crowd.
Engineers are trained to be arrogant about their abilities. This is probably a good thing, since it causes them to fling themselves at problems fearlessly. But it's also not necessarily realistic.
There's plenty of evidence that evolution is extremely inefficient. Due to its very nature it can't look forward, it can only hill-climb. Since evolution can't re-architect things, it gets stuck in local maxima all the time.
We can be reasonably sure of evolution's inefficiencies after looking at some some examples. Problems like the laryngeal nerve and backwards vertebrate retina are commonly brought up in these sorts of debates, but they forget that evolution doesn't even look at the vast majority of solution-space. It limits itself to squishy things in the discipline of biology. For example, neurons run at 10-200Hz and conduct signals at 0.000001c. Other substrates like silicon and diamond are much faster.
A human visual cortex has billions of neurons doing complicated procedures (edge-detection, FFTs, motion-detection, etc). But only a tiny fraction of humans can multiply two 4-digit numbers without the aid of pen and paper. Had the human brain been designed by a human, every programmer in the world would scream, "Why didn't you give us an API you idiot?!"
Of course, we'd also complain about the brain's lack of 4G, since evolution never invented a radio.
https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2011/05/28/the-long...
That is the kind of thing we mean when we say evolution doesn't find the best solutions all the time. The horrible job evolution did with the human eye is another example.
Now:
> There is no evidence for a superior magical learning algorithm that would have done better
I think the point is that it's difficult to imagine anything doing worse.
This is a great synopsis of the situation. There is little research going into actually extending the human lifespan. It's fascinating to hear people like Aubrey de Grey describe some of that research (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey).
To give an obvious contemporary example - gay marriage is a lot more controversial among older American voters than younger voters.
Now multiply that times a thousand - what if people who grew up in the time of Christ were still a significant part of the voting population? We can't just assume they'll all become hip techno-libertarian atheists/extropians just because they managed to live long enough. My guess is that they'd have a strong attachment to the values and way of life they grew up with - thus creating potentially bitter conflicts among the different cohorts which might make contemporary domestic politics seem downright friendly.
So while its cool to imagine living indefinitely - it seems to be in many ways healthier for society to have a continuous "purge", to constantly start fresh with new minds that have less baggage from the past.
Also on a personal note - if society in 2,000 years is radically transformed into something I find really bewildering and bizarre - do I really want to be around for that? Of course I would gamely try and adapt, but it might be better for everyone to just leave that future world for people who grew up with it and who find it natural.
Still, I am not any kind of Luddite - if life extension and mind uploading etc. is perfected I won't oppose it - I'll just have a lot of misgivings as will a lot of other people.
Joe Haldeman's "Forever War" has some good exploration of the nature of "Future Shock": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Forever_War
Actually, now that I think about it, if this whole scenario actually happens the best thing might be to maintain separate societies for people born in different time periods, which can communicate and interact but which operate relatively independently.(e.g. Being gay might be illegal in the 1000 CE society but being straight could be illegal in the 3000 CE area!) That might be the only way to keep some relative peace.
There are many suspected specific reasons for why this is (telomeres shortening, mtDNA mutations, protein cross-links, etc), but it boils down to this: accumulating damage accumulates faster as self-repair mechanisms are damaged by accumulating damage.
About one in 45 billions. How many people in history did reliably make it to 120? exactly one, Jeanne Calment. One other did it to 119, and that's about it.
More importantly, we need people to care, and for some insane reason people don't. How do we manage to not treat this as pretty much the most important unsolved problem in humanity? (Mostly, I suspect, due to a combination of perceived futility and ingrained cultural problems.)
For what value of "significantly"? And at what cost, in a world in which many people live on five dollars a day or less?
The point I'm trying to make is that we tend to very easily forget that we've come a really long way, but these things take time and they don't involve only science (the fact that the area I was studying was ravaged by the Ottoman expansion definitely had an impact on how long the people in the Balkans lived, as do today's not so healthy diets for most of the Western-populations). This is why I think that making bold and unsubstantiated predictions such as "in 20 years' time we will have reached indefinite lifespans" doesn't really get us anywhere, it only helps confusing us.
http://books.google.com/books?id=3PSTqQrrzjEC&pg=PA141...
The premise of the story is that an effective life extension treatment has been found, and it is so expensive that only the politically powerful can have access to it. The protagonist (and first-person narrator) of the story is an assassin whose job is to murder the immortal oligarchs who rule a future United States--it is pretty apparent that the target of his assassination plot is J. Edgar Hoover in a far-off future. That has always caused me to pause and think about whether I would really like society to discover an effective longevity treatment. Are you sure that people who are as high on the social power and influence scale as HN readers will have access to the treatment?
Magic 8-ball says: "it is likely". Typically, new technologies are at first available only to the rich and powerful, but eventually they become cheaper and more widely available. Consider cell phones, televisions, and the internet. Today, the poorest person with an internet connection has access to information on a scale which far surpasses anything available to even the kings of old.
Given as little as you need to make this problem solvable and nontrivial calculate how often (on average) oldest human in the world dies.
It depends on whether you want the oldest person as an individual or as a class. Good riddles shouldn't be forked.
This is a math task. Given whatever you need (size of human population, probability of death at any age and similar statistical data) and assuming whatever you need (population distribution is such that it does not change over time or sth. like that) calculate average time between deaths of oldest individual in the world.
In other words instead of:
<google_search> therefore oldest man dies every 6 years.
I want:
<given_this_data_and_assumptions> -> <calculation_and_reasoning> -> oldest man dies every 6 years.
The very first human is the oldest human and they died once.
Besides, when human dies he's no longer old. He's dead. His corps might be oldest corpse but he's no longer oldest human.
From the little I have read on the subject it does seem like this is one area where we have a long way to go to really make progress as we don't really understand all the variables yet.
The dangers associated with smoking make it an obvious negative, but nicotine itself is not considered carcinogenic.
It remains to be seen if any of those currently experimenting with intentional calorie restriction will achieve similar results to those seen in animal studies; this would be quite impressive if true.
Abstract:
A regression analysis was made of age at first reproduction in female mammals, as a function of body weight, using the data of Wootton. Data on maximal life span, also expressed as a function of body weight, were used to calculate “adult” life span, wherever possible, by subtracting the cognate value for age at first reproduction. Then a regression analysis of adult life span as a function of age at first reproduction was made. In both cases global regression lines (i.e., for whole data sets) were computed by standard least squares and by a robust method, as well as local regression lines for subgroups classified by taxonomic and ecological criteria. The slopes of the various regression lines were found to vary widely as a function of the method of classification. This result argues against the notion that the ratio of life history variables is a constant, or that one life history variable is likely to be a simple function of another. The results for bats are anomalous, in that age at first reproduction appears to be independent of body weight (over about two orders of magnitude). It is concluded that a full understanding of life history variables, such as maximal life span and age at maturity, is likely to depend on combined physiological, ecological, and evolutionary insights. Keywords: maximal life span; age at maturity; regression analysis; mammals
3 And the LORD said, My spirit shall not always strive with man, for that he also is flesh: yet his days shall be an hundred and twenty years.
AFAIK, all people in recent history (<3000 years) claiming to be aged over 120 years are either questionable or not verified.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeanne_Calment If this is true, [i]Men[/i] still did not exceed 120 years by 128,99 days. Interpreting the bible is hard, determining as literal and figure of speech is the hard part.
Genesis is the same book that puzzlingly fails to mention the big bang, for example.
On second thought, do we have to count "the beginning" as the moment of the singularity or as the time when the universe became transparent to photons? Gonna end up with a holy war over that one.
Wait, it's all good. You start out with a dark and formless void, then you get your "fiat lux" afterwards. The Bible was right again!
1:2 And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep. And the Spirit of God moved upon the face of the waters.
1:3 And God said, Let there be light: and there was light.
Oops, there's water before there's light. Better retcon that sucker.
The Big Bang.
Look, the Bible is an anthology of twisted fairytales that's been an absolute bonanza of story fuel for the western tradition. But it's not exactly replete with reliable scientific information.
Meanwhile, explicating the meaning and purpose of the Ten Commandments in all the thousands of odd corner cases -- including big ones like war -- are left as an exercise for the reader.
Wow have we gotten off-topic. Sorry HNers.
I see nothing wrong with the occasional gold thread in a red tapestry.
"Plato meets Moses" speculation is just fun, though. Since Plato was a monotheist I think he would have found enough common ground to debate with Moses. I expect the two would have disagreed on whether the forms were in God or residing elsewhere. The creation account in Genesis and in Timaeus are both geocentric accounts of an initially perfect creation, etc. They also would have agreed that the homogenous mixture of the elements was the same as the homogenous "formless and void," "surface of the waters" etc., but they definitely would have disagreed about the demiurge vs God/Satan, and also disagreed about quite a lot of what happened after creation. That's my speculation, anyway.
I'm assuming that we apply Ockham's Razor. That it's a collection of myths predating science is easier to uphold than the idea that every single Biblical author was steeped in magical realism.
Most of the genius in the Bible comes from outside of it: from the critics and commentators. In a way it's a triumph of brilliant minds over mediocre source material. But now we don't need to apply genius to myths, we can apply them to the real world. I rather prefer that.
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2085298,00.ht...
I was about to post the same thing - this is no surprise to us Jews. As the saying goes - may you live to 120 years!