Hacker News Reader

Comment by ddek | Hacker News Reader

Which ONS data are you referring to? The currently published data indicates the wave has at least plateaued, as I read it, in all but the youngest age groups.

View on HN

They are talking about the survey data, which doesn't rely upon the normal testing regime. They randomly contact and test individuals irrespective of their symptoms status, which is different from the normal testing regime that gets reported daily. I believe its a 20k sample size. The survey takes a lot longer time compile

Most recent summary: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...

Most recent data: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...

Methods: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...

Thanks for adding the relevant links.

In particular, it's worth noting that the ONS survey tries to estimate an answer to the question "in the given time period, what proportion of the population would have tested positive?"

Because people tend to continue to test positive for a reasonable period of time after they are first infected, this should be a lagging indicator of any peak in new infections having occurred.

It's important to note that this data sample ends on July 24, which is almost exactly the day that cases started rapidly declining across the UK.

OP was not accurately representing the facts.

That summary seems to show infections plateauing in every age group except school kids. (And of course, with schools breaking up since then they're probably both less likely to get infected and less likely to get tested.)

Reply on news.ycombinator.com