Hacker News Reader

Comment by opinion-is-bad | Hacker News Reader

It’s hard to imagine a situation that both removes Taiwan from play and preserves peace in Korea. It’s unfortunate the world’s chip supply is so geopolitically concentrated.

View on HN

PRC invades ROC/Taiwan. Besides some saber rattling, US, Japan, Korea don't get involved. The end.

Is that unthinkable?

It's not unthinkable, but continuing this line of thought, is it unthinkable that China makes a point of upholding all contractual obligations leaving TSMC's customers unaffected?

Just dropping some interesting posts I found when researching this general area earlier today:

https://unherd.com/2021/07/will-china-invade-taiwan/

Will China invade Taiwan? A panel of superforecasters considers the likelihood of an imminent global conflict

https://www.jonstokes.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan (Jon Stokes, the Ars Technica founder)

Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world. If they do it, it won't be for the microchips

I believe that PRC doctrine for an invasion of Taiwan is to launch preemptive strikes against US bases in the region. So unless they change their strategy before they invade, the US will definitely get involved.

Who would have an interest in drawing South Korea into it?

The US would be primarily responsible for forcing Korea into the war. The border of North and South Korea is only about a day drive from Beijing, allowing the US to threaten the Chinese government from the very beginning of any conflict. The situation on the Korean Peninsula is commonly thought of as a failing for US diplomacy, but the conflict actually provides perfect cover to keep a huge military detachment almost on the border of our chief geopolitical rival. It’s highly advantageous to the US for Korea to remain fractured.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com