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Comment by black_puppydog | Hacker News Reader

I'm really surprised to find this article pointing out that this spike "began during the COVID-19 pandemic" but then Ctrl-F for "Trump" and "elections" come up empty and there seems to be no further discussion of the matter. They could have just as well run with "began in the middle of a heated electoral cycle with an incumbent who clearly has little regard for the political culture or unity of the nation."

As a total outsider I'd have guessed that the (in retrospect justified) anticipation of large-scale civil unrest would be driving this...

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>As a total outsider I'd have guessed that the (in retrospect justified) anticipation of large-scale civil unrest would be driving this...

There's some of that for sure but every presidential election year there's a spike due to people worrying about the possibility of more restrictive gun control laws.

The combination of the anticipation of unrest (as you mentioned), the pandemic (which generated a fear of long-term shortages of essential items, which in turn made people worry about looting and the collapse of the government), and politicians talking about new gun control laws has created a more lasting spike.

People may signal one thing in social media or at an office watercooler but their private purchases signal what they're truly feeing. I suspect that people are buying guns because they feel that civil unrest is likely and they are observing the spike in violence in cities where police have been defunded or otherwise ordered or coerced to stop arresting criminals.

I don't think it's the traditional conservative gun owner stocking up on guns right now. These people already have lots of guns and guns are very expensive these days. Anecdotally, I've observed a lot of first-time gun owners buying them.

I think there was a justified increase in concern over disruption of the critical supply chain that allows modern life to function.

If there are widespread toilet paper shortages, people have alternatives. If there are widespread food shortages, I’d want to have the ability to protect my home and family.

I think March through May of 2020 got a lot of people to consider buying a gun who had never seriously considered it before.

Not so much anticipation as the publicizing of actual widespread civil unrest for months on end.

Plus, toilet paper had everyone in a hoarding mood.

> the anticipation of large-scale civil unrest would be driving this

I think this is right. However I don’t know anyone who expected the unrest to be the result of trump and his election lies.

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