While I agree with his statement that the first calculations where rather pessimistic, he forgets to mention, that number is MUCH MUCH higher per capita than their Scandinavian neighbors.

- Sweden 14500ish dead out of 10M population

- Denmark 2550ish dead out of 5,8M

- Norway 800ish dead out of a pop of 5,4M

- Finland 1000ish dead out of 5,5M citizen

So 3x worse outcome than Denmark (per capita), 7ish-8ish x worse outcome than Finland and Norway.

Also multiply the 14500ish by 32 (due to size difference) to get comparable to the US and you are around 465.000 dead which is roughly speaking 2/3rds of the US death rate..