Navy Quietly Decommissions Littoral Combat Ship Independence
news.usni.org
news.usni.org
The philosophy of developing and building weapon systems is called "concurrency" and has been a subject of debate for 50 years. You can look at in different ways, but the cynical view, is that if the military first developed weapons systems then reported their final price to Congress, they would never get to run these wasteful programs. So instead, they promise a low price tag and then develop concurrently so that Congress falls into the sunk cost fallacy.
This kind of "money doesn't matter we'll do it live" mentality happens all over the world. It plagued the F-35. It's resulting in a disaster with Canada's new Type 26 frigates.
The simple solution is to ban all concurrency. You're given a budget, you design the system, then you build it. If you go over, we pay for the cost of the redesign, not the insane cost of upgrading half-broken ships or aircraft. The F-35 wasted more than $21 billion dollars on worthless aircraft https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2017/10/21-billion-worth-of-f-...
It's not like the money would be spent elsewhere, it's all debt we're just going to hold on to until inflation renders it irrelevant.
At one of our dinners, Milton recalled traveling to an Asian country in the 1960s and visiting a worksite where a new canal was being built. He was shocked to see that, instead of modern tractors and earth movers, the workers had shovels. He asked why there were so few machines. The government bureaucrat explained: “You don’t understand. This is a jobs program.” To which Milton replied: “Oh, I thought you were trying to build a canal. If it’s jobs you want, then you should give these workers spoons, not shovels.”Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/dwighteisenhowercr...
It's literally parasitic.
Are you serious?
But that same money could have been spent differently on things people like, or invested.
These ships, and the structure of military spending, is more like Basquiat’s example.
Bastiat's parable doesn't account for the sticky effects of capital investment. The glass makers in his stories only replace windows with old techniques and never use the spike in demand as an opportunity for technological development.
After all, it would spur the development of decontamination as well as speedy construction wouldn't it?
Planned obsolescence is also a form of this. Why build a phone that lasts 10 years when you build one that lasts 4, convince people to throw away perfectly working phones, and funnel the additional annual sales volume into technological research?
This is so, but that cheaper and better glass is unlikely to be tougher and less prone to breaking.
Isn’t it in the best interest of everyone to actually deliver on projects? If they don’t how is it that they continue to be relied on by the military?
Apologies if I’m being incredibly naive, I have no experience with what the military procurement world looks like.
There are immense barriers to entry. When I tried to boot-strap my defense startup, a Lieutenant Colonel I knew (also a VP at a defense company) told me it would take over a year just to do the paperwork to sell stuff to DoD. It's why I focused on South-East Asia. As long as I steered clear of ITAR products, I felt corruption in SEA was easier to navigate that US bureaucracy. The requirements are even more onerous if you are producing anything of a sensitive nature. My dad knew a business owner in the Gainesville area who got out of the drone-making business because the physical security upgrades that his DoD client required were such a burden. Successfully navigating these hurdles requires program managers with niche domain knowledge on the DoD's procurement, certification, and funding processes.
>>>Isn’t it in the best interest of everyone to actually deliver on projects? If they don’t how is it that they continue to be relied on by the military?
Because of the issues I mentioned above, oftentimes there are few companies who have both the infrastructure and the domain knowledge to even attempt to deliver a product. Some of the engineering problems are also REALLY difficult. But if Lockheed Martin sucks at making a fighter jet, and Boeing sucks at making a fighter jet.....who do you turn to? If you need a jet engine, you go to Pratt & Whitney or you go to Rolls Royce. No amount of VC startup incubation is gonna give you a reliable high-bypass turbofan engine in a reasonable timeframe. The Chinese have been throwing resources at that particular problem (fighter jet engines) for decades and they are STILL behind the US and Russian offerings.
If the Navy doesn't like its Little Crappy Ships....it's not like there is an abundance of efficient shipyards in the US anymore. The few existing ones are practically on life-support and reliant on Navy contracts. A good shipyard needs experienced blue-collar tradesmen (welders, electricians, etc.), which are already in short supply in the US. So again this is another field that is not quickly rectified or disrupted. As a consequence the government is stuck saying "Sigh....here's another bag of money....try to get it right this time." At this point, pushing funding to trade schools in order to get a bunch of noobs into the shipyards, and then being tolerant of them producing "good enough" ships for a decade, would be an improvement over our current situation IMO...
The government is at fault too. We've suffered from a lack of consistent strategic vision, and frequent adjustments to policies, budgets, and tactics lead to engineering changes that are massively expensive. The military is constantly moving the goalposts, so industry responds by rolling its eyes and saying "You want it to do WHAT?!?....Yeah, that's gonna cost another $100 million..." There's also an incestuous relationship between program managers who are military officers or Federal government employees, and industry. The .mil/.gov types leave the service and then, after a short cool-off period to not run afoul of the laws, get hired by the same companies they were pushing billions of dollars towards. It's the same revolving door problem that Wall Street and the SEC have.
It's a depressing mess and I don't expect it to get better until the bodies REALLY start to pile up and the American populace turns its rage towards The Powers That Be instead of each other.
If someone had been honest and told Congress "Oh, the F-35 will cost $1 trillon dollars" they would never have approved it. The military does this so that they can claim something will be cheap. Then over the next 5 to 10 years they increase the cost astronomically, step by step, because Congress will look bad canceling the program and getting nothing for all the billions they spent so far.
There's no one resisting the change. If I gave you unlimited money, but all you had to do is take it $100 at a time, you'd do it too. The problem is that Congress refuses to keep the DoD accountable.
Basically it’s three birds with one stone, you develop weapons and technology (necessary given international affairs), you provide jobs (important for senators and congressman to make their constituents happy), and funnel international money as a brother tax (we’re in this together).
Yes it’s inefficient, but it greases the wheels.
Similar can be said about the ~$3B/year given to each Israel and Egypt. Keeps the peace, supports strategic interests, and pays for defense (military tech, and jobs - since all funds are spent on US defense).
But sure, keep pretending like the problems in the Middle East are just a few countries short of 3 billion.
But yes, Syria is a mess and cannot be fixed by writing a check. Which is too bad, because it would be great if it could be. And the entire Arabian peninsula has too much money for a 3 billion/year bribe to change things. But if raising 3 billion a year could stop the suffering of millions of people in Syria, my guess is that it could be done very quickly.
The US is falling behind in military tech designed to fight a Cold War. There doesn't seem to be widespread understanding that WWIII is an info/cyber-war, the primary ops are covert and subversive, and Russia and China already have dangerous levels of access to civilian, military, and political infrastructure.
Even if that wasn't true, Russia and China have both been modernising their civil defense and weapons systems. The US has been packing pork into barrels with limited effect. There are some world-leading R&D projects, but not so much in the way of effective weapons systems.
I am honestly concerned that there is unrealistic complacency about the state of readiness, and there's a non-negligible prospect of an attack on (say) Taiwan happening at the same time as some kind of cyber Pearl Harbor event at home.
It means they choose not to.
So it's a pretty skewed view to say "These countries end up in the news for hacking, therefore their capabilities are greater than everyone else's."
They do it with their three letter agencies. When you get hacked, does it make a difference?
But you're right that concurrency has largely been a failure.
New defense systems don't actually have to be cutting edge. The cutting edge stuff is more properly deployed as upgrades to existing systems (this tightens the feedback loop that produces learning). By the time the tech is influencing newly designed systems, it shouldn't be cutting edge anymore.
Anyone complaining about how this slows the adoption and deployment of new technology should take a close look at what made the F-16 and F-18 successful platforms for so long. Not only were they regularly upgraded, but in many ways their upgradability was upgraded over time, and new planes coming off the assembly line were far from being frozen in time, but rather reflected an evolution of those platforms.
I'm saying that before you design a 5th gen system, the tech[0] you want to use should be proven as an upgrade to a 4th gen system.
I'm saying that running out of headroom is a normal part of the lifecycle, and trying to cram in the latest everything into a newly designed system in an attempt to put off the inevitable is futile and counterproductive.
I'm also saying that you may not run out of headroom as soon as you think.
[0] Note that I'm aware that I am drawing a distinction here between 'tech' and 'design' that isn't really so clearcut.
That's demonstrably false.
All civil aviation works by companies shouldering the weight of development then selling their wares. Heck, the whole non-military economy works this way. And even a good chunk of the military economy where they buy modified civilian goods.
There's nothing special about weapons systems. There's a market. You do market research. You know you can sell X units for Y cost. You build the thing. You sell it.
There's only something special about the DoD. They're not being held accountable and they don't give a damn about the long-term financial welfare of the country.
These ships were problematic from the beginning. I remember them being commissioned without a working gun, alongside reports of ship-wide computer failures leaving the ships dead in the water. If they are costly to operate and ineffective in service, it doesn't really matter how much they cost to build in the first place.
That said, it's really a symptom of American corruption / decline / corporate capture in my mind. This program alone funneled billions of dollars into defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, with very little incentive for efficiency. What a waste of American wealth!
I think you're confusing the LCS with the Zumwalt class... both of which were troubled and mostly cancelled, but for slightly different reasons.
Two important ones are that the defense contractors are jobs programs, giving good salaries to skilled workers and investing in education distributed across the country. They are also defense preparedness programs: we buy and build constantly whether or not we need things right now because when we do need them, we don't want to build knowhow and whole industries from scratch.
Claiming that it is all being done well is of course absurd, but it is also very hard to build programs that last for decades and through many administrations, many political changes, involving millions of people. And folks are always eager to point out "failures" that aren't always a sign of anything being done wrong, especially from people who have little idea what it's like building an enormous ship/plane/weapon meant to be serviceable for half a century.
Understanding that is part of the cultural 'high ground' that the US maintains over China!
Even if these ships performed as promised, there's a reasonable chance they'd still be cancelled as the force structure changes.
Also, the US Air Force has been experimenting with digital design, where they not only use CAD and similar tools to design the aircraft, but also the entire manufacturing process [1][2]. i wonder if the Navy can adopt that methodology for ships and subs too.
Also it seems that American naval projects with foreign names aren't such a success (littoral combat ship, zumwalt...).
Edit: littoral appears in their documents extensively. But you are correct that China is the focus, for sure.
The USA has always been a blue water navy at heart, despite these halting experiments at green water doctrine.
These ships are useful, but only during _acutal_ combat. For force projection, not so much.
They're definitely going to be one of the major challenges in the next major war but we're still in the early stages of both offense and defense for drones and drone swarms.
>It’s been used as a testbed for mission package development and leaving the fleet well ahead of its expected 25-year service life.
I am personally surprised they’re giving up on the Littoral ships before they gave up on the Zumwalt class, the destroyers that don’t even have any ammunition for their main guns.
The US Navy is already well into a new project to develop a new guided-missile frigate [FFG(X)] to replace these LCS ships.
These ships were commissioned to counter shallow-water adversaries. Iranian speedboats, pirates, et cetera. In the context of balancing Russia and China, they’re underpowered.
The orientation shift from terrorists and regional powers to countering a regional hegemon and emerging superpower explains part of the lifespan. The rest is it being a garbage ship.
That thing is a tri-hull: not your usual armoured ship. That is designed for speed, it is designed to plane and not displace (think speed boat but a lot bigger). It is described as "littoral" which is Latin for around the shore. It's got trendy slopey sides so slightly stealthy and also those angles will help in slightly deflecting kinetic incoming nasties.
So we have a weapon platform that can move really fast close to shore.
When you are running something as big as a national cough defensive cough thingie, you will have many experiments running in peacetime. Note the word peacetime. These experiments will cost billions of ickies (pick your currency - it doesn't matter.) This ship class is pretty obviously one such experiment.
You also have to remember it takes a very long time to get from "we need this" to the thing floating in the water or flying or breaking down on Salisbury Plain. In wartime, timescales are shortened. In (lol) peacetime it takes longer. For example in 1940s Britain, if you need a fighter/bomber which has decent firepower and a small bomb load and have a fair range and be bloody fast then you suddenly get the Mosquitto: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Havilland_Mosquito . It was made of wood and was also considered two kills if one was shot down - that's how bad the Mossie looked to the Germans.
Any bit of war gear - ship, plane, rifle, grenade etc takes ages to go from plan to usage. Some become classics for example the AK47.
The other thing to consider is that people are employed to conceive, design and build these things. The US is a bunch of states and sometimes politicians ensure local jobs are secured for federal reasons/concerns.
No modern warship carries much armor. It's too heavy. And a sloped side will do precisely nothing to deflect incoming missiles.
Getting this ship commissioned was pretty impressive, getting it decommissioned in some ways even more so.
I love the hull shape. It looks like it would deal with some nasty seas. If it hit a 50' wall of water, those upwards pointing planes should point it upwards and along with the inherent buoyancy, get the ship back to the surface.
The piccy:
https://news.usni.org/2021/07/31/navy-quietly-decommissions-...
... shows that there is a chain going down and some rope warps and springs.
Why is the anchor gold? The Retention Excellence Award (previously known as the Golden Anchor Award); an award given by the United States Department of the Navy for sustaining superior levels of military retention. The award was established by the United States Fleet Forces Command through the Fleet Retention Excellence Program. Deployable Navy ships are authorized to paint their anchors gold as a symbol of earning the award.
The large buildings dedicated to a single company where tens of thousands of person-years of adult life by good people were spent. Sometimes I think that these buildings deserve a formal decommissioning, maybe even a desacralization. Or perhaps a Bastille-ization in some cases.