Jeff Bezos loses attempt to block the Moon-landing contract NASA gave to SpaceX
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
Where is the BE-4 engine? Delayed, again and again. New Glenn, the rocket that could actually go into orbit? Same. So far their only functioning hardware (New Shephard) is, in effect, a glorified amusement park ride.
Considering that SpaceX has actually made it to orbit multiple times, any rational actor would clearly choose SpaceX over BO.
Not if it's a 100m or 200m sprint. Try that and you'll finish dead last.
If SpaceX had gone with slow and steady, it would have merely given their monopolistic competition - competition particularly well connected in DC - that much more time to try to wipe them out using their preferred approach of avoiding competition via government protection.
Blue Origin may yet make something of itself via slow and steady pacing (which Bezos can afford), however it's not winning the race.
From them "This difficult-to-translate root (pra-) means more than "meek." Biblical meekness is not weakness but rather refers to exercising God's strength under His control – i.e. demonstrating power without undue harshness."
There's also a good discussion at https://hermeneutics.stackexchange.com/questions/2/what-does...
[1] taken from Novum Testamentum Graece, κατά ματθαίον 5,5 (pp.9/26X - 28th ed, 2012) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novum_Testamentum_Graece
Soviets were once in the lead very clearly, Roskosmos lost that edge a long time ago.
At this point Bezos might be better off starting over with a new team.
BE-4 has been delayed, true, but if it were looking like a failure, ULA would have dropped them a long time ago.
I think 2022 will clear up lots of things for everyone. SLS, BE-4, New Glenn, etc... Till then there is no sense of dooming anything.
SpaceX started on powered decent in 2011 achieving it’s first landing from an actual orbital space flight in 2015. I don’t mean to dump on Blue Origin but their achievements are really just around the definition of space as 100km which is completely arbitrary, their effectively just publicity stunts.
It’s possible that Blue Origin will create a useful system for space exploration, but based on past progress their years if not decades from that point.
I'm not sure how important/big the difference is, but IIRC spaceX only lands boosters that never actually reach orbital velocity. They help boost things into orbital velocity, sure, but the things that land under powered flight never actually reach orbital velocity, right?
I'm aware that the crew dragon was supposed to do this, but AFAIK it never has.
I am not saying they fudged things or that it was easy, just that it wasn’t the kind of litmus test you see on an actual orbital rocket.
The first stage is far from orbital velocities when it reaches MECO and starts down, even though I strongly agree with you: SpaceX is in an entire other league.
Apollo LM was the first to land vertically.
> if it were looking like a failure, ULA would have dropped them a long time ago
That seems to be assuming that they have a choice. Given the fuel difference between AR-1 and BE-4, they've been committed to BE-4 for quite some time, no matter how much progress BO is doing (or not doing) on BE-4.
Many rockets did soft landing on earth before that point, but none of them had been in space.
Sorry, but the McDonnell Douglas DC-X did the rocket straight up & down vertical landing in 1993. New Shepard frankly wasn't particularly different. It went higher and longer sure, but for orbital rocketry the challenge isn't height so much as speed and everything that comes with that. The Falcon 9 flight 20 at the end of 2015 that marked its first landing was a vastly bigger achievement given that it was an orbital class rocket booster. It was going much, much faster and had to descend on a much more complicated arc through the atmosphere. And it pathfinded for actual rapid reuse, which is a whole different set of skills. That New Shepard did a suborbital jump a mere one month earlier 2015 honestly just isn't great.
Since then, F9 has done over 100 more flights, to orbit, including crewed ones, and set ever growing records on cadence, reuse of boosters and refurb speed, satellite launch records, etc. NS has done... what? 5 test flights over 6 years? Then that silly little PR stunt? It's ludicrous. And it's long since stopped serving any useful purpose in terms of learning because it avoids so many of the true challenges in going orbital which involve 9+km/s of delta-v.
The media has been grossly unfair to Bezos. What Bezos actually did was risk his own neck in the first manned flight of a totally new rocket design. It was a massive display of faith in his engineering team.
Musk didn't do that. Branson didn't do that - and earlier test pilots of his craft died.
As for the BO rocket being totally automated, that was the original intent of the Mercury missions, until the astronauts objected. Nobody called them joyriders or ludicrous.
It's a good thing. I've also always been happy to fly on a 757. (I worked on the design of flight critical parts for it.)
Branson didn't fly on the first flights because SpaceShipTwo is a completely different beast to New Shepard. SpaceShipTwo is a pioneering space plane with MANUAL controls. New Shepard is basically the absolute most boring way you could claim to have "gone to space". It's vastly vastly less interesting and ambitious compared to what SpaceX and even Virgin Galactic are doing.
Automated controls are more ambitious than manual controls. Note that the Apollo 11 was supposed to be totally automated, but Armstrong saved the mission by overriding it and doing it manually.
> most boring
Well, until the automation goes wrong, then it is briefly very exciting.
Nothing to do with the catastrophic bugs in Boeing’s Starliner that caused the failure to reach the ISS and that would have risked the astronauts life if they didn’t fix two issues (literally) on the fly.
Doesn't matter what the excuses were. It was supposed to work, it failed, and Armstrong took over and saved the mission.
> Nothing to do with the catastrophic bugs
Most every software bug today, once rooted out, looks like a mistake only an incompetent programmer would make. Except the best programmers make these mistakes, because humans are fallible.
If I recall correctly, SpaceX had some unintended disassemblies from software problems, too.
I honestly think you have it backwards: the media has been very kind to both Bezos and Branson, particularly the latter. This isn't surprising because the media doesn't really get orbital dynamics any more than they get most technical topics. Nevertheless a lot of them act as if Branson's and Bezos' flight were some big technical achievements or progress forward, as if they can just evolve the designs around the current limitations.
They cannot. Hybrid engines have garbage ISP, the entire design of the Unity is completely worthless for high speed period let alone reentry, every $ spent on it is pointless beyond a quick joyride that will relatively soon be obsoleted by real space tourism. NS is at least vaguely sort of more useful for BO, it has a hydrolox engine so it's not doing anything for them on that front but they got to work on their landing a bit somewhat more easily.
But the value of space comes from actually getting to orbit and then beyond, and that's a fantastically more difficult problem due to the delta-v needed, the rocket equation, our material science, etc. SpaceX's approach of focusing on the real hard problem which delivers serious revenue and opportunity then working backwards on economics, always with focus on orbit as their lodestone, has clearly been much more effective. BO is older than SpaceX and has yet to even once get to orbit or deal with reentry. At all. It's hard not to look at so much of NS and just see such a waste of years and dollars.
>What Bezos actually did was risk his own neck in the first manned flight of a totally new rocket design.
I guess? It had been flown and landed multiple times and it had a lot of margin to work with since it's just a big sounding rocket. They did a hyperconservative work-on-the-first-launch Old Space development process.
>Musk didn't do that.
You think Musk wasn't puckered launching 6 astronauts and tens of billions of dollars worth of other people's precious cargo to space? Musk didn't do that because it wouldn't have proved anything and been a pure waste and distraction from the actual serious mission.
>Branson didn't do that - and earlier test pilots of his craft died.
Branson is a daredevil and that design is garbage on a host of levels.
>As for the BO rocket being totally automated
So is Dragon 2. So will Starship. That's normal and good, it's manual that's bad. But it's also not a special achievement that justified 6 years after first launch and landing.
A whole 5 times. The space shuttle flew many times before the Challenger.
> You think Musk wasn't puckered
It's a whole lot different when your own ass is the one that will die.
> Branson is a daredevil
And yet he still didn't dare to take the first manned flight.
> it's also not a special achievement
It's untried and very complex software. We know how that often goes.
Elon was probably more invested earlier and was paying more attention to what was going on is for sure though. Im not convinced Bezos personal attention is going to do much to help his space company though. Nothing about him seems like it would help other than his wealth. And he hasnt shown a willingness to throw a significant part of his fortune into his space venture. Nothing about this strikes me as anything more than what is a hobby that one of the richest persons in the world is passionate about
"While at Princeton, Bezos attended O’Neill’s seminars and ran the campus chapter of “Students for the Exploration and Development of Space.” Through Blue Origin, which he has called his “most important work,” Bezos is developing detailed plans to realize O’Neill’s vision." - [0]
[0] https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/04/16/documentary-featur...
You're not optimizing for the same outcomes as Congress. NASA is a jobs agency.
On reddit, what usually happens is that SLS defenders try to misrepresent attacks on SLS as an attack on all of NASA, parenthood, and apple pie. And so the world turns.
There's a logical train here, that I think you're attempting to work around.
1. Nasa is a jobs program 2. A jobs program that produces good tech? 3. Yeah, but what did SLS produce? 4. You know that SLS is not NASA (is what I should have said). But I actually said was close enough.
3 makes zero sense unless the poster believes NASA ~= SLS.
I find it fun that we're saying the same thing (NASA != SLS), yet here we are arguing.
And if I were to go out on a limb, I suspect if you asked person 1 what they were mad about, it's probably the human spaceflight program, not science.
None of that is a disparagement of the scientific research NASA does. But for congress, the value is a way to send money home.
It's an important one for sure! But it's just not true to say NASA hasn't accomplished amazing stuff in the last decades with the funds and focus they're allocated.
NASA does plenty to keep its name in good scientific standing and accomplishment.
They're the next stop for Bezos, btw. This ain't over.
Once again: the idea that USA would keep competing on international aerospace market of launch services wasn't working before SpaceX started launching Falcon-9. Maybe the market losses are because of paying for aerospace jobs, or maybe it's just a coincidence, but USA was practically pushed out from the market, until - heavily vertically integrated - SpaceX put the launch price on their website.
I think the idea of paying for aerospace jobs in this way doesn't work.
I'm not talking about NASA headcount, I am talking about NASA contracts which support private sector companies and aerospace engineers.
The USA wants to maintain the domestic capability to for launches, and this means funding technology and expertise. If you don't award contracts domestically, in 10-20 years the capability is gone. No domestic contracts => no jobs => no grads => no rocket engineers.
NASA's model has always been to award contracts to the private sector companies. This is why you have SpaceX, Boeing, Northrup, Lockheed launch capabilities.
>I think the idea of paying for aerospace jobs in this way doesn't work.
I'm not sure what you mean by paying for aerospace jobs. NASA funded private sector manufacturers before and continues to fund it now.
I agree the the US manufacturers were ripe for disruption, and SpaceX did a great job of doing just that. However, the entire market and jobs exist to chase these government contracts. Do you think that SpaceX would exist if it wasn't for NASA and DOD launch contracts? I don't.
This way the idea that all or many congressional districts should participate in NASA contracts - because then those congressmen support increasing NASA's budgets - goes out the window. Now congressmen - and congresswomen, of course - can judge NASA in terms of space progress vs. money spent, not in terms of distribution of money to jobs in their districts. From this point of view, your question is irrelevant - no, it wouldn't, as after forth launch Falcon-1 SpaceX didn't have funds to continue, and NASA helped, but that doesn't mean NASA doesn't have an ineffective policy.
Robert Siegel: "As NPR's Peter Overby reports, Capitol Hill has always been deeply involved in NASA's activities, and sometimes seem to regard NASA as a jobs program, as well as a space program."
Overby: "This year [2011], according to federal contract data, NASA will buy goods and services in 396 of the 435 congressional districts."
https://www.npr.org/2011/07/20/138555781/congressional-suppo...
From 2019:
"NASA will often highlight the fact that its SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft support aerospace suppliers. For example, this agency website details the number of suppliers in every US state and says, 'Men and women in all 50 states are hard at work building NASA's Deep Space Exploration Systems to support missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.' There are 106 suppliers in Alabama, alone, according to NASA's site."
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/03/an-alabama-represent...
I don't think SpaceX would be as strong if not that early NASA funding. "SpaceX contracted with the US government for a portion of the development funding for the Falcon 9 launch vehicle, which uses a modified version of the Merlin rocket engine." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_SpaceX
So by your thinking, they could have only invested in old-school-reliable-expensive rocket companies, because less risk is involved...
So funding a space company that doesn't yet have required capability but can be helped to get there - is not dumb.
BO said historically NASA gives contracts to multiple companies, and BO wanted funding too (in addition to SpaceX.
BO “argued that the agency was required to make multiple awards" because it had previously stated a preference for multiple awards”
They also got court injunctions preventing SpaceX from starting it's program, kinda deflating your whole 'just wanted to play along' narrative
But they are, apparently, firmly in development hell, with no public indication of trying to change that.
The BE-4 fits into that.
Is official cancellation necessary?
Edit: lol forgot it was 2021 not 2022, still seems unreasonable to me though.
https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/a-telescope-on...
I appreciate SpaceX's focus and god bless em for what they're doing in that sector, but there are other things to space than just delivery driving.
SpaceX is really, really fast.
> Amazon did not say when the first launch will occur, but the company said it had contracted with United Launch Alliance for nine launches to begin building out its constellation of 3,236 satellites in low Earth orbit.
[1]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/fcc-approves-spacex-starlink...
[2]https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/04/amazons-first-intern...
Technically going hydrogen way Bezos cornered himself - the turbine would be extremely expensive and reliability is an issue, and by not doing it so far they are very limited by expander and tap-off.
You don't consider being the first to successfully launch and land a VTOL booster noteworthy [1]?
[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/11/the-f...
It’s “what have you done lately?”
They were not the first the launch and land a VTOL booster. According to the article it was the first VTOL booster to fly above the Karman line and then land safely. But SpaceX had a flying VTOL booster in 2012-2013. [1]
Actually it's amazing because Blue Origin made that flight in 2015, and five years later they made basically the same flight but with people in it. Meanwhile SpaceX nailed orbital landing, is reusing orbital boosters like crazy, released the Falcon Heavy, and has made remarkable progress on the Mars Rocket. And BO still hasn't made orbit.
This should be a wake up call to established space players: the days of cost-plus contracts, multiple bid winners, and endless cost and time overruns - are over. There’s no purpose to those anymore.
For the past fifty years this all made sense: going to space was hard, and the financial risks were astronomical. This decision highlights how much progress we’ve made toward establishing a “space economy”. Space has been de-risked enough that the corporations can take on the (previously fatal) risk of a fixed-price contract. De-risked enough that the government is reasonably certain of achieving a strategic objective with a single provider.
BO, ULA, et. al - the game just changed. Adapt, or die.
But this wasn't always true. For Commercial Lunar resupply they went with SpaceX only as well.
The traditional was one supplier with cost plus.
Maybe that’s just the kind of attitude it takes to be the richest person alive, but it definitely rubs me the wrong way.
Not like he cares who it rubs or in which way, of course.
The industry needs a 2nd new generation provider. I don't harbour any fuzzy feelings for Bezos but I do hope BO will get somewhere, or that another company will. Perhaps RocketLab or Relativity Space?
While this is great for individuals, it also attracts a lot of people looking to coast. And of course the highly motivated, intelligent people who are willing to put in more time to make cool shit happen aren't going to settle for a distant runner up.
I suppose the real question is, will the SpaceX hare or the Blue Origin tortoise win the race in the long run. SpaceX might make amazing strides quickly, but if they burn out their workforce and fail to keep talent long term, they might suffer in coming years and decades.
You know the meme about devs going to Google to rest and vest? That's the reputation Blue Origin has in the space industry according to Stone.
But the way the new world works, that approach loses out against SpaceX.
And unlike the real Old Space companies BlueOrigin doesn't have lots of military contract or a airplane business to actually make money.
The idea NASA would plunk down money for imaginary spaceships is silly. They have their own one of those already.
They should do this even without grievances from losing bidders.
The first is obviously Blue Origin. Some important points:
- SpaceX was founded in 2002. Blue Origin in 2000;
- Blue Origin may have achieved a vertical landing first but it was for a rocket that basically went straight up and came straight down as opposed to going near-orbital speeds (Mach 30), which is unquestionably much more technically challenging;
- While SpaceX had delays in shipping (eg Falcon Heavy, Crew Dragon) the track record of the Falcon 9 at this point is undeniable;
- Bezos made an extremely odd (to me) choice for leader of Blue Origin: the former CEO of Honeywell (to the point that I've read insiders call the company "Blue Honeywell"). The result seems to be that things are done incredibly slowly and the delays keep piling up. I wonder if the company is now so risk-averse they'd rather do nothing than risk doing something that will fail. Now compare that to SpaceX's Starship prototypes.
Whatever magic touch Bezos has hasn't rubbed off on Blue Origin and I honestly think they're at risk of sliding into irrelevance.
So the second example is of course (Activision) Blizzard. We actually have a good data point in how another company, Square Enix, handles Final Fantasy XIV (vs Blizzard and World of Warcraft). Some interesting points:
- Blizzard doesn't engage with the WoW community. Compare this to Square Enix explaining the issues and timelines for bringing new servers online to alleviate queues;
- It seems like Square Enix is still player-focused whereas all of Activision is clearly financially-focused at this point;
- The horrific allegations against Blizzard fit into a narrative that Blizzard leadership and employees disdain their audience and almost certainly don't even play their own game;
I could go on.
So the reason I bring this up in the context of Blue Origin is because to me there's some striking similarities here. Blizzard is run by non-gamers. Blue Origin is run by Wall Street financial types not rocket men (or even engineers). Boeing is another data point in how horribly that can go wrong.
A fish rots from the head they say. If leaders want to claim credit and get the rewards for good performance (eg Bobby Kotick's $150m bonus) then the buck stops with them with regards to the culture they've created or allowed to fester on their watch.
But just virtue signaling to the market by replacing the head of the company isn't enough at this point (in either case). The fish doesn't reverse the rot when the head is cut off. It's going to take cleaning house to save Blue Origin (or Blizzard).
It's not like they don't already have all the money they'd ever need or could use, and wouldn't the world be better off if they worked together than against each other?
That's all these companies exist for.
Basically every successful company has a massive amount of ego behind it but the question is if they actually achieve anything tangible and, eventually, profitable.
This might actually lead to a greatly increased risk of creating an impenetrable field of space junk if the thousands more satellites that SpaceX launches collide in to one another.
If that happens expect SpaceX supporters to start singing a different tune.
How often? You'd need a pretty lucky collision to knock something into a higher stable circular orbit.
Here is an article in Nature [0] discussing other risks, and mentioning that LEO is already in the early stages of Kessler Syndrome, while SpaceX alone is seeking to launch as many extra satellites as there are tracked pieces of debris already in orbit, with several other companies having similar plans. They also mention that debris in one orbit can cross to other orbits.
You seem to be referring to the Kessler syndrom. If that happened, it would not mean that we could not send probes to space anymore. It only becomes unviable to have satellites at the altitude of the debris field. We could still launch through it into higher orbits or onto interplanetary trajectories.
Another problem when multiple independent orgs pool resources and work together is you either end up with design-by-committee (which leads to overengineering and extra expense, both of which are anti-goals for SpaceX and BO), or deadlock when the parties can't agree. And you'd better believe personalities like Musk and Bezos would clash a lot if they ever did a joint venture on something.
If they clash a lot it's proof they're not good at cooperating.
So maybe the answer is that Musk and Bezos are good at competing, but not good at cooperating.
That doesn't mean that cooperation is a losing strategy, but just that one has to be good at cooperating in order to succeed at it.
I mean what if all the space companies decided to use one company's rocket engine and they failed to delivery...
I can only recommend Eric Berger's excellent book "Liftoff" to gain insights into SpaceX' way of working to get the Falcon 1 rocket off the ground and eventually into orbit. I cannot imagine Blue Origin having operated in a similar way at any point in their history.
Pointless as in I, an old man and an uncoordinated complete failure at athletics, can ride my bike faster than any of them can run.
Employing
> credit
Credit always goes to the leader. Without Bezos, none of Blue Origin would have happened. Olympic athletes rely on uncredited trainers and usually a dedicated family to financially support them.
Anyone with the means could have founded Blue Origin, hired the same people, and gotten the same result. Jeff Bezos' money was necessary to the company's success, he was not.
>Olympic athletes rely on uncredited trainers and usually a dedicated family to financially support them.
Olympic athletes credit their trainers and family all the time. And, again, they do the actual work.
Except they didn't. Bezos did.
> Olympic athletes credit their trainers and family all the time.
Society does not. It's always "Bob won Olympic gold!" Nobody else is mentioned.
> And, again, they do the actual work.
Um, sacrificing and earning money so your child can pursue Olympic dreams is actual work. The full time coach for them does actual work. (There's a reason families will hire the best coaches available for $$$.) The sports doctors who optimize their health and manage their inevitable injuries do actual work. Their nutritionists do actual work.
There's no such thing as an Olympic athlete who did all the work, not even close.
From a layman's perspective, an idea like that would make superficial sense; they are all programming languages, after all. From a programmer's perspective, that would be a nightmare.
I think the companies are so far apart that extensive technical cooperation would slow them both down. Maybe they could share a weather service or even a drone ship fleet for landings, but not the core products and their parts.
Yes!
They need different runtimes, but there's a lot of infractructure they could have been reusing. It's a shame we have a couple dozen language silos that have to reinvent everything.
Rarely does a new language build everything from scratch, and the parts they build new are often progress.
I'm not blaming the authors. It's not any one language's responsibility to make tooling stacks modular and interoperable.
With the weight of Amazon on their side, I wouldn't rule that path out.
EDIT: Probably India as well
If SpaceX were Russian, Indian, or Chinese, the US would shit its pants.
I actually think the US hasn't made such a big deal about Mars and the moon because they're afraid China will latch onto that and make it a big deal, and more likely "win". So instead we focus on LEO, ISS, Mars rovers, probes, telescopes, etc. And if China does eventually build a permanent moon base or get a crew to Mars before the US does, the US can claim "cool, good job, but we didn't think it was all that important, so we didn't pursue it as hard as they did".
(Note that I believe that Musk pushing hard for Mars is not the same as the US pushing hard for Mars. The US seems more outwardly excited about Musk's ability to cheaply ferry things to and from orbit than anything much farther.)
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA943-1.html
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/nato-leaders-...
https://warontherocks.com/2021/07/updating-space-doctrine-ho...
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-space-forces-seeks-allies...
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-nations-commit-to-the-...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/15/world/asia/china-russia-s...
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/china/china-us-space-race...
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/06/the-us-military-is-s...
You think Starlink won't give the U.S. a military edge??
Of course there is a space race. And the name of the race is to copy everything SpaceX does.
You know what space nerd love? SpaceX. You know what they don’t love? Blue Origin.
I bumped your comment up, if you want to find out I should be able to un-up it once you check your current number... if I remember to refresh my comment history ;).
HA that's exactly the main reason I keep an eye on it up top to know if I should check my comments to respond to someone. I'm at 1631 right now but also a couple other recent comments in the mix. Though also with that lately I've noticed more random downvotes for what I don't see any reason for.
If there is an "on topic" discussion, the back-and-forth can actually be very engaging and worthwhile. Some of these exchanges are really golden and is why I keep coming back to HN. However, these high value interactions tend to be rare.
Unfortunately, many discussions here tend to be fairly low value. Especially those topics that are prone to draw emotional responses from people that are arguably no more qualified to comment other than they feel strongly about the topic (and, yes, guilty as charged). In these cases, back and forth between the already committed serves little purpose and just adds stress to life. I think by simply stating your position and maybe why you think it, anyone really interested will know by that single expression that 1) there are contrary points of view, and 2) it might inspire the undecided to look into matters and draw their own conclusions... and do so with better information than is available from comments here.
Some viewpoints expressed on HN feel like social media fed hatred, people often forget that there is a massive army of brilliant people doing stuff that most engineers would dream of. There are Facebook/Google engineers working on advertisement tech and we generally don't scorn at them. Adtech is far more "uncool" than space exploration.
I say kudos to Blue Origin to lift a building sized socket up to space with humans in it.
I think it's genuinely interesting to compare two well-funded, privately-led space companies and their results. What is it that has allowed one to make such substantially better progress than the other?
It's clear that SpaceX is a tough place to work, and Musk has very high expectations that go well beyond a hard-worked 9-5 5 days a week. That said, Amazon is not an easy place to work either ... so is Blue Origin a driven workplace culture?
Perhaps it's just that BO got distracted by the sub-orbital hop goal, and should have ditched that (like SpaceX and the Falcon 1 and Falcon 5) and just gone straight into New Glenn? There's something to be said for aiming high.
Perhaps it's just bad luck? BE3 seems ok, but BE4 appears to have some issues. Maybe SpaceX got lucky with Raptor? Or perhaps the difference is just the staff -- one good hire could be the difference between the fairly quick success of Raptor vs. the delays with BE4?
Ironic as it is, I will give Musk some credit for keeping his ego out of the cockpit. Not that he's short of ego, but (so far) he's resisted the urge to launch himself.