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Comment by Reason077 | Hacker News Reader

> "Who cares? ... nobody will even remember a few years of delays."

If project timelines and budgets are not credible, it has very real implications for the viability of future infrastructure projects. It becomes much harder to justify future spending if you can't trust your models.

Already (before than pandemic hit) the blow-outs on Crossrail were putting the north-south "Crossrail 2" line in doubt. Originally it was hoped this would get started in 2023, but I doubt there's any chance it will start before well into the 2030s now.

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COVID and Brexit have drastically reduced the amount of commuters, for the foreseeable decades.

Don't be surprised that $20B transportation projects are being reconsidered.

The best capital improvements are the ones that you can obviate away through cheap behavioral or societal adjustments (just as the best line of code is the one you can remove or didn’t have to write).

These words aren't necessarily wrong, but quite irrelevant here, since Brexit can be called many things but 'cheap' isn't one of them.

Was more directed at COVID pushing remote work, negating the need to shuffle bodies around via public transit to do knowledge work. I agree Brexit has been an expensive, unnecessary shit show.

COVID has not been cheap either - it has cost hundreds of billions [0]. You could fund twenty crossrails for this amount of money.

[0]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/22/a-year-of-c...

Brexit was a choice, while the fiscal, monetary, and societal response to COVID was necessary and unavoidable.

I disagree that it was unavoidable. I said to my family in February that the UK should stop all - absolutely all - flights into the country. The cost of this would have been miniscule compared to what ended up happening.

(Not just flights - everything except essential goods including via trains, ships and lorries. Certainly all people should have been disallowed entry.)

Ah, makes sense. My bad.

Although I do believe there is a great future for public transit in coordination with lighter ‘last mile’ solutions simply because cars are way too bulky for cities.

No worries at all. I agree that in most of Europe, cars are to be avoided considering density and robust existing connectivity. With that said, it makes sense to consider the New Future when making capex plans.

Project timelines and budgets for projects of that size have never been predictable. Look at software development, the industry has largely moved away from trying to predict large projects and now just builds the smallest increments possible. Building infrastructure in a city with 100,000 unknowns underground is far worse.

Seattle had the same hand wringing around our newish rail line back in the early 2000s, now no one even knows it was late.

Also - Now that Seattle is around 85% vaccinated, offices are re-opening and the trains are full again. London is being more conservative in their approach to reopening, but they are merely months behind.

Trains are pretty full right now in London.

But just “full to capacity, standing room only” full, not ”full to beyond capacity, have to push and squeeze your way in before the doors close” like before the pandemic!

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