School Shutdowns Will Cost Students a Staggering Amount in Lifetime Earnings

Wow, my kids lucked out. As soon as the school district announced that classes will be held online, a bunch of the parents got together and hired tutors. We were invited to join and the parents split the cost.

Every other day, as soon as online school ended, our kids would go to a different person’s home to meet with a tutor in math and english. It made a world of difference. We did this all the way up until the end of this last semester, and we managed to keep the same group of 12 kids.

I can’t speak for other children, but my kids were miserable with online school, and they looked forward to the tutoring because it gave them that in person social time. Their grades definitely improved, and I think for this set of kids we made the right decision.

I'm always a bit skeptical that these studied may use current differences in earnings by education to estimate losses in earnings in a context where everyone has had a similar experience of decreased time in school. A lot of the earnings benefits of education are positional, for example being in the top 10% carries benefits and opportunities, regardless of the overall level of education of the top 10%. Looking at current/past differences in earnings by years of school or abilities would probably not be an accurate estimate of losses that will occur to everyone with a similar difference in their education.

My kids were relatively advantaged (and quite possibly absolutely advantaged) because of the support, resources, and enriching activities we were able to provide them. There was nothing negative for them to “escape” at home; they had excellent nutrition, sleep hygiene, quiet places to work, attentive parents to help as needed, etc.

That was far from universally available to kids across my city.

Five months behind who, though?

I could imagine[0] that, on an individual level, when a student misses a lot of school, they fall behind their peers, and knock-on effects translate this into lower lifetime earning.

In the case of the pandemic, though, isn’t everyone in a similar boat? The “most qualified” student from the class of 2021 is going to have their pick of opportunities; there isn’t some “reserve” from an alternate universe that will outcompete them.

What could happen is that the pandemic disproportionally affects kids from certain backgrounds (minority, low SES, certain regions, etc). Unfortunately, the article doesn’t really delve into that.

[0] Estimating this accurately is likely very hard, especially if the “cause” continues into adulthood. Still, it doesn’t seem unlikely that there’s some sort of effect.

I don't hate FEE, but there's a lot of opinion in this article above and beyond the original source. Maybe link to that? https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector...

> Yet the harm inflicted on our children by government mandates closing schools isn’t just academic or financial.

Love it, the spin in this article is something to behold, including the many references to more articles with half-thruths from the same publication. It is a shame, because COVID's influence is indeed worrysome on minority and disadvantaged communities.

And COVID-19 will cost students their health and maybe their lives, not to mention their parents and relatives if they're anti-vaxers.