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So Google just keeps it instead and then flips a coin on who should get the escrowed funds when they deem they "resolved" it.

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Google generally doesn't weigh in as it's all handled between the uploader and the claimant. If the claim is disputed by the uploader then the claimant can accept/reject that dispute. The uploader then has the chance to appeal; if they do so then the claimant has to either release the claim or escalate to a DMCA takedown. Of course if it gets to that point then the video is coming down and no one will be making money.

Source: https://creatoracademy.youtube.com/page/lesson/respond-to-co...

Additionally, if it's a DMCA request, there are stipulations that it needs to be made in in good faith under penalty of perjury, so hopefully that makes it a bit less likely to go that far for a spurious case, but I'm not sure anyone has ever been found guilty of perjury for this, when AFAIK there are plenty of cases where it was obviously the case, so... who knows.

> if it's a DMCA request, there are stipulations that it needs to be made in in good faith under penalty of perjury

I seem to recall those being notoriously lax.

https://smallbiztrends.com/2015/05/fraudulent-dmca-takedown-...

The part of the DMCA that requires paying out compensation for knowingly issuing false claims is rarely used.

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