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Comment by scratcheee | Hacker News Reader

At the current rate (approximately linear over the last 10 years), in just 30 more years we'll have 100% adoption.

Realistically adoption will slow down if nothing changes, everyone willing to put the effort in for zero immediate reward has already done so, and some will allow their support to degrade due to low usage.

At some point I guess ipv4 availability will really start to collapse and adoption will speed up again.

Not sure which will come first to be honest, but better if adoption is relatively high when the shit evebtually hits the fan, to avoid the temptation of insane NAT solutions.

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Adoption is already slowing down, by half in 2020 vs 2019.

https://blog.apnic.net/2021/02/08/ipv6-in-2020/

I bet that at some point we'll have another inflection point, as the IPv4 prices soar and the IPv6 becomes commonplace enough for some (free/hobbyist-run?) services to say: "sorry, IPv6 only".

Why even pay for IPv4 addresses? Who says who gets to "use" them?

Markets generally are good for determining allocation of scarce resources. They push people with the ability to substitute to do that, in this case, use ipv6. Pay for ipv4 so nobody takes more than he needs. Imperfect but probably the least bad option, just waiting to get ipv6 over time hasnt worked so maybe scarcity and high prices do it.

How do you even pay for IPv4? You should just be able to advertise BGP routes to whatever you want.

An inflexion point can go either way, the question is have we already passed that point with v6 or is this the start of a decline that ends with it failing to replace v4? (Stealing this from Geoff Huston, see page 41 of his presentation [0])

[0] https://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2021-03-02-ipv6-deploy...

You're quite the optimist.

Or someone less tech savvy but legally savvy figures out that IPv4s are scarce resources, just like, for example, housing, and finds a way to impose their use through regulation in some contexts and to ban their use in other contexts.

> At some point I guess ipv4 availability will really start to collapse and adoption will speed up again.

I think this will be more like a linear function. As the IPv4 prices increase, the IPv6 adoption increases until it reaches 100%. I don't think that there will be a collapse.

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