The data shows natural gas usage has been pretty much static for a decade: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g...
Germany is also a net exporter of electricity and exported 13.7Twh more than it imported from France.
Germany is also a net exporter of electricity and exported 13.7Twh more than it imported from France.
So when you have spikes of renewable productions (a lot of wind and a lot of sun) Germany sells it to "everyone around" at a really cheap price. Which means that on a yearly average Germany indeed exported a lot of cheap renewable electricity to everyone.
Now try to guess what is happening when everyone starts to do what Germany is doing for close to 20 years now ?
France is also leaning rather heavily on the capital expenditures it made on nuclear power in the 80s. Unfortunately its gonna be in for a whopping bill when its plants start aging out in 2025: https://www.france24.com/en/20170710-france-hulot-could-clos...
Germany, OTOH, will be able to coast on what it's already built in the next 10 years while the rest of Europe plays catch up.
Wind turbines lifespan is around 25 years (some 30 years), mostly limited by structural and physical issues. You can't reinstall a new wind turbine on top of an old one (the concrete base is also fragilized and new turbines are often way bigger than old ones).
Solar panels indeed have a way better lifespan and recent ones stay efficient even after decades of use.
So one question now: why is Germany building and importing so much natural gaz (~400g of CO²/kwh, it's around 10 for renewable/nuclear) if their renewable plan is working so well ?
I presume they will start scaling down natural gas plants at some point, but they're clearly aiming to shut down nuclear and lignite plants first.
Coping with increased electricity demand and switching off two forms of power generation entirely wasn't going to be quick but it is inevitable.
There is a cost to renewables that most advocates don't factor in - balancing. Most studies use the prevailing market rates for energy to prove that renewables are cheaper than coal or gas however, when renewables aren't providing power, something is and that something has a cost.
This is a cost paid for by consumers though it isn't attributed to the source of the problem - the variable renewable generators.
Similar argument for energy storage. You need storage precisely because renewables are variable and that cost should be factored in to the cost of renewable energy. At the moment, it isn't.
Hence all that electricity imported from, e.g. France in winter. Some people might be under the illusion that this was free but I can assure you I am not.
There's a reason Europe is super keen on country interconnectors. It really helps smooth out production.
Intermittency of renewables really has become the next Y2k. I suppose we can thank a decade of carbon and nuclear lobby fearmongering for that :/
Like Y2K as a problem it receives relatively too much attention relative to the problems it causes. The rolling blackouts germany was promised ~10 years ago never materialized, for instance:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/may/23/germany-...
I am not a huge fan of Germany's energy policy myself, I see it as misguided giving up nuclear first and coal second.
BUT, if everyone built out renewables like crazy, it would create a huge market for storage or electrolysis systems.
Batteries and HVDC to your nearest major desert are what I expect to be the solutions.
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/J...
What will happen is that people will learn to build an energy system that works well with this situation.
Which will likely mean things like industrial plants that shut down when electricity is scarce and get payed for that by the grid operator, because that's cheaper than having a lot of storage. It will mean new industries will be built by using excess renewables (likely hydrogen will be such an industry). I'm excited to see that happen.